Considering First Post-Listing Dividend, Japan's NAND Leader Sees Trading Volume Exceed Trillion Yen for Two Consecutive Days

The storage super cycle driven by AI, expectations of a first-time dividend, and multiple other factors have jointly propelled Kioxia Holdings to the top of the Japanese stock market's trading volume rankings. From April 8th to 9th, Kioxia Holdings (Kioxia Holdings) on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw its trading volume surpass one trillion yen for two consecutive days, recording 1.3596 trillion and 1.2867 trillion yen, respectively. This is a first for individual stocks in the Japanese stock market. On the 9th, its trading volume was approximately 7.7 times that of SoftBank Group, whose trading volume was only 167.7 billion yen that day. There were two core catalysts driving the surge in trading volume: firstly, the widespread adoption of AI leading to sustained tight supply and demand for NAND memory chips; and secondly, the company signaling its first dividend payment after listing. Simultaneously, short positions rapidly accumulated, and the widening divergence between bulls and bears amplified stock price volatility, further boosting trading volume. Kioxia's stock price reached a new intraday high on the 9th, with a year-to-date increase of 2.6 times, and a cumulative increase of 6.3 times for the full year 2025. Today, the company's stock rose by over 7% again in Tokyo trading. Dividend Signal: From "Negative Retained Earnings" to "Stable Dividends" Kioxia's Deputy President in charge of finance, Yoshihiko Kawamura, told the media on April 8th: "If I have to choose between share buybacks and dividends, I lean towards dividends. We are discussing a policy for stable dividends." The company plans to formally outline its medium-to-long-term capital allocation policy, including investment and shareholder returns, at an investor briefing in June. This statement comes against a backdrop of sharply improving performance. Kioxia's third-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, released in February, show the company expects a net profit of 459.7 billion to 519.7 billion yen for the fiscal year ending March this year. The portion contributed by the first three months alone is expected to be 310 billion to 370 billion yen. QUICK analyst consensus forecasts further indicate that Kioxia's consolidated net profit for the fiscal year ending March 2027 will reach 2,410.5 billion yen, a four to five-fold increase from current levels. Notably, Kioxia's consolidated retained earnings as of December 2025 remained negative at 42.7 billion yen – this was the direct reason for the inability to pay dividends previously. With the substantial increase in profits, expectations of retained earnings turning positive are rising, forming the financial basis for dividend payments. Supply and Demand Logic: Seller's Market and Restrained Capital Expenditure Kioxia is the inventor of NAND flash memory technology, formerly Toshiba Memory. According to market data from TrendForce and Omdia, Kioxia currently ranks third globally in the NAND market, with a share of about 14% to 15%, trailing only Samsung (32% to 35%) and SK Hynix (19% to 22%). Yoshihiko Kawamura stated: "Currently, due to insufficient supply, NAND is in a seller's market, and the company is negotiating long-term contracts with customers such as hyperscale cloud service providers extending to 2028 and 2029." In terms of capital expenditure, Kioxia has opted for a relatively restrained pace. The company plans to invest approximately 400 billion yen in the next year, an increase of about 40% year-on-year, but still below the historical high of 510 billion yen in the first quarter of 2023. This investment is primarily for adjusting existing production equipment due to product upgrades, rather than for large-scale capacity expansion. The market implications of this strategy are quite direct: not aggressively expanding capacity means that supply will not increase rapidly, which helps maintain the current tight supply-demand situation. Bull-Bear Game: The Structure Behind Trading Volume Kioxia's sharp stock price fluctuations have attracted intensive participation from individual investors and overseas short-term funds. Simultaneously, short positions have been rapidly accumulating—credit transaction short balances on April 3rd had doubled compared to March 27th. Estimating based on current stock prices, the market value of short positions is around 500 billion to 600 billion yen. The divergence between bulls and bears is, in itself, a structural reason for the sustained increase in trading volume: those who are bullish are betting on AI demand and dividend expectations, while those who are bearish may be wary of the rapid rise in valuation. The hedging of these two forces has kept the turnover rate high. Kioxia was listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in December 2024, spun off from Toshiba in 2018, and subsequently completed its listing under the promotion of Bain Capital. With Toshiba and Bain Capital gradually reducing their stakes, individual investors now account for over half of Kioxia's shareholders, which is also one of the structural factors behind the active trading by individual investors. Institutions believe that investors' high attention to Kioxia may continue.