CBRE: Positive market sentiment to continue in the first quarter, expects luxury home prices to rise by up to 5% this year

CBRE stated that with the support of falling mortgage rates and the continuous influx of high-income individuals, the demand in the luxury residential market is performing strongly.

Guo Wei'en, Executive Director of Valuation and Consulting Services at CBRE Hong Kong, indicated that the Hong Kong luxury residential market continues its positive trend into 2025, with both prices and transaction volumes performing strongly. Although the latest stamp duty adjustments may temporarily slow down activity in the primary market, the impact on the high-end residential market is expected to be quite limited, supported by steady demand from local and mainland buyers. Looking ahead, ongoing capital inflows, increased participation from mainland buyers, and improved market liquidity will continue to support the performance of the luxury residential market this year, with luxury prices expected to record an increase of 0 to 5% in 2026.

Guo further pointed out that macroeconomic recovery, falling interest rates, and policy support all contribute to boosting investment sentiment and market stability. In 2025, the number of luxury residential transactions exceeding HKD 100 million reached 241, a new high in nearly four years, and this positive market sentiment is expected to carry into the first quarter of 2026, with both prices and transaction volumes recording increases. The number of luxury residential transactions exceeding HKD 100 million in the first quarter surged by 115% year-on-year.

Additionally, the announcement of the budget to raise the stamp duty on residential properties exceeding HKD 100 million is expected to have a limited impact on the luxury market, although there may be a slight decline in transaction volumes in the short term, especially in the primary market