By Nora Redmond
'To us, what matters more than geopolitics is what's driving the global earnings outlook'
HSBC's positioning framework has reached its most bullish level for risk assets since Donald Trump's &#34;liberation day&#34; rollout of global tariffs.
For HSBC the war in Iran isn't as important to stocks as you might think.
&#34;We don't need a full return to normality in order to fade the moves of the last six weeks,&#34; analysts led by Max Kettner, chief multiasset strategist, wrote in a note on Monday.
Since this conflict was launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran six weeks ago, investors have keenly been keeping an eye out for signals of de-escalation. U.S. stocks are currently set to dip after Washington and Tehran were unable to reach an agreement during 21 hours of discussions over the weekend.
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But analysts at the London-headquartered bank argue that there's too much focus on geopolitics.
&#34;As credit spreads and equities quickly approach pre-escalation levels, we suspect calls for investor complacency will be abundant in the coming weeks,&#34; they said. &#34;But we've been arguing since mid-March that what's really important from a market perspective is the rate of change, not the level.&#34;
HSBC's positioning framework has risen to its most bullish level for risk assets since U.S. President Donald Trump's rollout of &#34;reciprocal&#34; tariffs on &#34;liberation day,&#34; the note said, adding that even just less negative news would be enough to support the rally.
Kettner noted that strong data points, like higher credit-card spending and same-store retail sales picking up, and tax refunds that are 25% larger last year's, as sources of comfort for the second quarter's earnings season even amid war.
&#34;To us, what matters more than geopolitics is what's driving the global earnings outlook,&#34; he said. Concerns about artificial intelligence over the past two quarters have removed the tech sector's valuation premium, creating opportunities to buy, Kettner said.
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The important question, the analysts wrote, is whether U.S. exceptionalism is going to return in the next few months. They said they see a scenario where, possibly by the end of the second quarter or by summertime, if the unemployment rate falls, Treasury yields could pass 4.3% - which would have a knock-on effect for virtually all asset classes.
-Nora Redmond
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04-13-26 0852ET

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HSBC analysts believe that stocks can rally without a complete return to normality, emphasizing the importance of the global earnings outlook over geopolitical concerns. Their positioning framework is at its most bullish level since Trump's tariff rollout. They argue that even less negative news could support market rallies, citing strong consumer spending and retail sales as positive indicators. Analysts are optimistic about U.S. exceptionalism potentially returning, with expectations of falling unemployment and rising Treasury yields impacting various asset classes.

- HSBC's analysts assert that the global earnings outlook is more critical than geopolitical tensions, such as the Iran conflict.  
- They highlight a bullish sentiment for risk assets, supported by strong economic indicators, despite geopolitical concerns.  
- Analysts suggest that a decline in the unemployment rate and potential increases in Treasury yields could significantly impact various asset classes by mid-2026.

Stocks can rally even without a 'full return to normality,' says HSBC