POP MART Surges Over 8% as New Domestic IP Sells Out; Goldman Sachs Confirms 'Demand Exploded'!

POP MART received a powerful boost. A latest Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that the company's newly launched IP series in March saw strong demand across domestic online channels, selling out completely. Previously, renowned investor Duan Yongping publicly announced his entry, further igniting market sentiment. On Tuesday, POP MART shares surged more than 8%. In a research report released on April 13 by analysts including Michelle Cheng from Goldman Sachs, it was written that as of April 10, all plush toy series were sold out on official online channels, "indicating strong market demand and high popularity of the new IPs." The company released two highly anticipated series in March, collaborating respectively with Sanrio and the International Federation of Association Football (FIFA). Despite the impressive single-day gain, POP MART's stock has fallen approximately 14% year-to-date so far, significantly lagging behind the Hang Seng Index's rise of about 0.6% during the same period. Earlier on April 2, the market triggered a sell-off due to concerns over the company's excessive reliance on the single Labubu IP, causing its market value to shrink by approximately $33 billion at one point. New IPs Sell Out Completely, Positive Demand Signals in China According to the Goldman Sachs report, POP MART's The Monsters IP launched two heavyweight plush toy series in March: The Monsters x Sanrio and The Monsters x FIFA. Among them, the initial stock for The Monsters x Sanrio was relatively ample, with supply exceeding 45,000 units on Douyin and over 30,000 on Tmall. Initial supplies for The Monsters x FIFA plush keychains were more restrained, exceeding 25,000 units on Douyin and over 10,000 on Tmall, currently maintaining a premium of over 20% in the secondary market. Additionally, the new series under the IP Dimoo (The Secret Theatre Club) had sufficient initial supply, exceeding 30,000 units on Douyin and over 20,000 on Tmall. Goldman Sachs noted that as of April 10, all the aforementioned plush toy series were sold out on official online channels, confirming the resilience of domestic market demand. The upcoming Twinkle Twinkle new series, scheduled to launch on April 16, had already reached pre-order volumes between 30,000 and 60,000 units on Douyin as of April 13. Its tracking performance is better than previous Have a Good Run and Angry Molly series but still lags behind the earlier Twinkle Twinkle series. Growth Rate Slows Quarter-on-Quarter, Secondary Market Cools Down Although overall demand signals are positive, Goldman Sachs data also reveals a marginal weakening in growth momentum. According to third-party databases, combined sales from POP MART's Tmall and Douyin flagship stores grew 67% year-on-year in March, a significant slowdown compared to the approximately 139% year-on-year growth rate in January and February, driving the overall growth rate for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 to approximately 115%. In the secondary market, both March and early April entered a cooling period. Second-hand prices for older Labubu series declined in March. While discounts on new series narrowed, the premium space was limited; currently, only FIFA plush keychains and hidden editions maintain a premium. Second-hand prices for IPs such as Twinkle Twinkle, Dimoo, Skullpanda, Molly, and Crybaby all experienced varying degrees of quarter-on-quarter declines. Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that compared to previous popular series, the secondary market performance of the new series is "not exciting enough." Overseas Markets Under Pressure, US Sales Plunge Performance in overseas markets presents more obvious concerns. Goldman Sachs data shows that POP MART's credit card sales in the United States fell approximately 46% year-on-year in March, forming a sharp contrast with the approximately 36% year-on-year increase in February, resulting in overall US market growth for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 recording only about 2% year-on-year growth. Looking at specific products, the The Monsters x Sanrio series sold out quickly upon release on official websites in Thailand, Europe, and the US, but remained in stock in these regions as of April 9 after restocking. The The Monsters x FIFA series has not sold out since its launch on official websites in Thailand, Europe, and the US. POP MART's overseas monthly active users (MAU) via its app declined quarter-on-quarter in the US and Europe, while remaining basically flat in Southeast Asia. The Goldman Sachs report also noted that POP MART management had previously maintained a cautious attitude towards overseas markets, guiding annual company sales growth to exceed 20%, implying conservative expectations for the overseas market. Goldman Sachs currently maintains a "Neutral" rating on POP MART, with a 12-month target price of HK$184, leaving a 14% upside potential from the current share price. Duan Yongping Enters Market, Boosting Sentiment Further While the Goldman Sachs report catalyzed the stock price rise, public statements by renowned investor Duan Yongping also provided additional support for market sentiment. Recently, Duan Yongping announced on social media, "My POP MART insurance company is officially open," confirming that he has begun positioning in POP MART by selling put options. Duan Yongping stated that the profitability data in POP MART's latest financial report sparked his research interest, saying, "I spent several consecutive days trying to understand this company; I haven't felt this kind of excitement in a long time." He admitted that he had not conducted in-depth research before because he felt this business was "too far away from him and difficult to understand," but he always held a good impression of founder Wang Ning.