Energy Storage Doubles, Commercial Vehicles Accelerate, AIDC Positioning: CATL's Second Growth Curve Taking Shape

CATL's first-quarter performance significantly exceeded market expectations, but more importantly, multiple new curves supporting its next phase of growth are accelerating in parallel. According to Huatai Securities' quarterly report commentary released on April 16, CATL achieved revenue of 129.131 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2026, a year-over-year increase of 52.45%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 20.738 billion yuan, up 48.52% year-over-year, exceeding Huatai's initial expectation of 15.6 billion yuan by approximately 33%. The core driver behind the beat came from increased battery capacity per passenger vehicle, accelerated commercial vehicle electrification, and continuous expansion of the company's market share, collectively pushing battery shipment volumes significantly beyond expectations. Huatai maintains a "Buy" rating for CATL's A-shares and H-shares and has raised its target prices to 583.94 yuan and 766.60 HKD, respectively. While earnings beat expectations, actions such as doubling energy storage battery shipments year-over-year, finalizing a series of commercial vehicle cooperation agreements, and entering the AIDC sector via an equity stake in the controlling shareholder of Zhongheng Electric are outlining a second growth curve for CATL that differs from its traditional power battery business. Huatai has revised its net profit forecasts for CATL for 2026 to 2028 upward by 3.16%, 3.80%, and 5.27%, respectively. The core logic behind this revision is the rapid growth in demand across multiple scenarios and the company's rising market share. Q1 Volume Up, Profit Stable, Earnings Beat Expectations by Over 30% Huatai estimates that CATL's total battery sales volume in the first quarter of 2026 was approximately 200 GWh, representing a year-over-year increase of over 60%. Among these, power batteries accounted for approximately 150 GWh, up about 50% year-over-year; energy storage batteries totaled approximately 50 GWh, up about 100% year-over-year. The significant surge in shipment volume was the primary source of the earnings beat this quarter. Regarding profitability quality, despite price increases in raw materials such as lithium carbonate, the company's net profit margin demonstrated strong resilience. In Q1 2026, the net profit margin was 17.61%, a slight year-over-year increase of 0.06 percentage points; net profit per Wh based on the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.104 yuan, indicating stable unit profitability. The gross margin stood at 24.82%, up 0.41 percentage points year-over-year but down 3.40 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The quarter-over-quarter decline was primarily driven by raw material price hikes and changes in product mix. Huatai believes that through supply chain layout, economies of scale, product design, and price pass-through measures, the company is hedging against raw material pressures and expects unit profitability to remain stable for the full year. Regarding cash reserves, monetary funds and tradable financial assets at the end of the period totaled 412.3 billion yuan, indicating ample financial strength. The operating expense ratio was 7.26%, up 0.18 percentage points year-over-year but down 0.50 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. Energy Storage Shipments Double, Global Market Share Continues to Expand Market share data confirms that CATL's leading position continues to strengthen. According to SNE Research statistics, from January to February 2026, the company's global power battery installation volume reached 56.9 GWh, up 13.7% year-over-year, with its global market share rising to 42.1%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points year-over-year. According to the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance, CATL's domestic power battery installation volume in Q1 2026 was 59.5 GWh, up 3.5% year-over-year, with its domestic market share rising to 47.7%, also up 3.4 percentage points year-over-year. Energy storage business was the most striking incremental segment this quarter. Huatai estimates that energy storage battery shipments for the full year will reach 225 GWh, a year-over-year increase of 87%, corresponding to a revenue growth rate of as high as 81.49%. From the perspective of gross profit contribution, the proportion of energy storage batteries in the company's overall gross profit is expected to rise significantly from 14.98% in 2025 to 21.49% in 2026, becoming a key source of improvement in the profit structure. Regarding industrial chain security, the company announced on April 15 its plan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, Times Resources Group. Huatai believes this move will help centralize raw material supply management and further ensure industrial chain security. Commercial Vehicle Speedup, Dense Signings Open New Markets Commercial vehicle electrification is another incremental market where CATL is accelerating penetration. Since the beginning of 2026, the company has densely signed cooperation agreements with multiple parties including Minyun Group, Suqiao Public Transport, Fuzhou Public Transport Group, Sanming Transportation Group, Yiyun Shares, Shentong Express, Chongqing Logistics Group, Guangzhou Public Transport Group, and Jianlong Group, covering various commercial scenarios such as public transport and logistics. Huatai's forecast model indicates that power battery shipments will grow from 541 GWh in 2025 to 675 GWh in 2026, a year-over-year increase of approximately 25%, with accelerated commercial vehicle electrification being one of the key drivers. Meanwhile, the company continues to advance the large-scale mass production and launch of sodium-ion battery products. These batteries adapt to diverse application scenarios including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and energy storage, potentially further expanding the penetration space in the commercial vehicle market. Positioning in AIDC Sector, Transitioning to System Solution Provider Beyond energy storage and commercial vehicles, CATL is laying out a new track with greater imagination potential. On April 8, Zhongheng Electric announced that CATL plans to increase capital investment in the controlling shareholder of Zhongheng Electric. Both parties will carry out strategic cooperation in fields such as green ICT infrastructure, transportation electrification, and new power systems (computing-power synergy). Huatai believes this move indicates that CATL is actively positioning itself in the AIDC (AI Data Center) sector and may transition from a battery supplier to a system solution provider in the future, creating a new growth pole. With the acceleration of AI computing infrastructure construction, the demand for energy storage support in data centers continues to expand. Leveraging its accumulated energy storage technology and scale advantages, CATL possesses the first-mover advantage to enter this scenario. Based on the rapid growth in demand across multiple scenarios and market share gains, Huatai has revised its net profit forecasts for CATL for 2026 to 2028 upward to 95.184 billion yuan, 116.182 billion yuan, and 140.578 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 25% for 2026 to 2028. EPS is projected at 20.86 yuan, 25.46 yuan, and 30.80 yuan, respectively. Regarding valuation, Huatai references the mean consensus PE estimates from Wind for comparable A-share and H-share companies in 2026 as 23.78x and 24.63x, respectively. Considering the company's stable net profit margin, continuously rising global market share, and the scarcity premium of Hong Kong-listed new energy leaders, the company is assigned 2026 PE multiples of 28x for A-shares and 32x for H-shares. This raises the target price from the previous value of 525.62 yuan/639.64 HKD to 583.94 yuan/766.60 HKD. Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer There are risks in the market; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions contained herein align with their specific circumstances. Investment decisions made based on this content are the sole responsibility of the investor.