The &#34;bill&#34; of war is spreading globally.
On April 15-16, during the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, two key messages emerged simultaneously, outlining the intensity of the Middle East conflict's impact on the global economy.
According to Reuters, IMF President Kristalina Georgieva stated at a press conference that at least 12 countries have approached the IMF for new loan programs to address soaring energy prices and supply chain disruptions caused by the Middle East war, including several Sub-Saharan African nations. She estimated that this war could trigger new financing needs of $20 billion to $50 billion, covering both new loans and expansions of existing financing projects for 39 countries.
Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, Indian officials have characterized this shock as &#34;potentially as destructive as the pandemic six years ago,&#34; warning that even if the fighting ends soon, normalizing energy supplies could take several years.
<h2>IMF: Supply Shock &#34;Won't Disappear Overnight&#34;</h2>
IMF President Georgieva's wording was direct and severe.
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Even if the war ends tomorrow, the impact of supply disruptions won't vanish overnight... Why? Because tankers are slow-moving vessels; it takes 40 days to sail from the Persian Gulf to Fiji. In the coming weeks, the shock of supply disruptions will only deepen.
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The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the core issue. This strait is a critical corridor for global oil, natural gas, naphtha, helium, and fertilizers, and Asian nations rely heavily on it. Georgieva warned that even if the conflict ends quickly, physical supply chain ruptures cannot be repaired rapidly.
IMF Strategic Director Christian Mummsen added that the figure of 12 countries is preliminary; &#34;we are still assessing, and this list is likely to expand.&#34; He also noted that delays or cancellations in fertilizer shipments are severely impacting developing countries, with some estimates suggesting an additional 45 million people could face food insecurity.
Regarding fiscal policy, the IMF explicitly opposes broad energy subsidies by various countries. IMF Fiscal Affairs Director Rodrigo Valdes stated plainly at the press conference: &#34;If you try to offset a supply shock by stimulating demand, you will ultimately end up with higher inflation.&#34; The IMF recommends that countries instead provide targeted temporary cash transfers to the most vulnerable groups rather than suppressing fuel prices.
<h2>Global Growth Forecast: Drifting Toward Worse Scenarios</h2>
The IMF has already downgraded its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% this week, but this figure itself is based on the assumption of &#34;a rapid end to the conflict and a subsequent drop in oil prices.&#34;
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas admitted that the global economy is currently &#34;drifting&#34; away from this baseline forecast toward less favorable scenarios—in which global growth in 2026 would fall to 2.5%, with an average annual oil price of around $100 per barrel.
The worst &#34;severe scenario&#34; is even more extreme: if the conflict deepens, global growth could plummet to 2%, edging closer to a global recession.
On monetary policy, the IMF's stance is &#34;stay alert, but do not act hastily.&#34; Georgieva stated:
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Our advice to central banks is: if you have sufficient credibility, send signals indicating your commitment to maintaining price stability, but do not rush to raise interest rates; wait for the situation to evolve.
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Mummsen pointed out that financing costs for emerging markets and developing countries are already high; while financial markets remain generally orderly, there has been some degree of tightening.
<h2>India: Activating &#34;Pandemic Response Manual&#34;</h2>
For India, the impact of this war is particularly direct.
India is the world's third-largest oil consumer, with about 90% of its natural gas imports coming from the Middle East. According to Bloomberg, Indian officials privately stated that the damage from this Iran war to India could be comparable to the 2020 pandemic, and even after the fighting ends, the normalization of energy products like liquefied petroleum gas could take years—because repairing damaged facilities in Gulf countries itself requires time.
The Indian Ministry of Finance has planned multiple scenarios, one of which assumes an average annual crude oil price of $120 per barrel.
The Modi government has taken several response measures: cutting diesel and gasoline taxes to stabilize retail prices, providing relief packages for exporters targeting the Middle East market, and establishing a $6.2 billion economic stabilization fund. A measure currently under discussion is a small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) credit guarantee plan with a scale of 2 trillion to 2.5 trillion rupees (approximately $26.8 billion), offering 100% guaranteed, collateral-free loans—identical to the scheme launched in May 2020 during the pandemic.
Modi's Chief Secretary Shaktikanta Das directly highlighted this historical resonance last week. He said that the recent Gulf conflict combined with the Strait of Hormuz blockade &#34;has evoked memories of demand destruction and severe supply-side interruptions during the pandemic.&#34;
<h2>Indian Economy: Multiple Pressures Converging</h2>
The war's impact is being transmitted to the Indian economy through multiple channels simultaneously.
Alexandra Hermann, an economist at Oxford Economics, pointed out that the rupee exchange rate, household purchasing power, Gulf remittances, fiscal space, and private investment are all under pressure simultaneously, making &#34;vulnerability exceptionally widespread.&#34;
Data shows the pressure is already evident:
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Overseas capital has withdrawn nearly $190 billion from Indian markets so far this year, approaching the full-year 2025 record, while the rupee has broken through the historic low of 95 against the dollar;
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In the first full month after the conflict erupted (March), India's exports and imports both contracted year-on-year; exports to the Middle East alone plummeted nearly 58% in a single month, amounting to approximately $3.5 billion; imports fell by $8.7 billion, a decline exceeding 50%;
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Goldman Sachs has downgraded its 2026 growth forecast for India to 5.9%, while Oxford Economics forecasts 6.2%, both below the Indian government's target range of 6.8% to 7.2%.
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Regarding the fiscal deficit, Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman set a target of 4.3% of GDP for the current fiscal year, but Standard Chartered economist Anubhuti Sahay expects that after absorbing the high oil price shock, the deficit ratio will widen by 0.7 to 0.9 percentage points, breaking through 5% of GDP.
DBS economist Radhika Rao warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and oil prices stay high, &#34;gradually raising retail fuel prices may be the next step,&#34; which could trigger &#34;a certain degree of demand destruction,&#34; similar to the situation after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict.

IMF President reveals that at least 12 countries have sought IMF loans to cope with the energy shock from the Iran war, with potential aid needs ranging from $20 billion to $50 billion and the list still growing. The IMF warns the global economy is drifting toward a more pessimistic scenario, where growth could fall to 2% by 2026 in the worst case. Meanwhile, Indian officials have characterized this shock as 'equivalent in magnitude to the pandemic' and have planned for a stress scenario with oil prices at $120 per barrel

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Iran War Hits Tipping Point for 12 Nations; India Compares Damage to Pandemic