Tang Xiaofu: Is this time different? Can the world avoid a stagflation-type recession caused by the oil crisis?

Tang Xiaofu discussed the impact of high oil prices on the global economy in a column on Observer.com, pointing out that oil and natural gas are key energy sources for global industries. According to data from the International Energy Agency, fossil fuels account for as much as 80.2% of global energy consumption in 2024. High oil prices not only affect chemical production capacity but also pose a threat to food security, as natural gas is the main hydrogen source for nitrogen fertilizer production. Oil and gas raw materials account for 60%-80% of the production costs of basic chemicals, so fluctuations in oil prices will directly affect the prices of downstream products