Morning Briefing | Trump Threatens to Resume Bombing Iran, US Stock Indices Fall for Two Consecutive Days

Market Overview Market concerns over the futility of US-Iran negotiations and the escalating threat of renewed conflict drove major US indices down for a second straight day. After Trump threatened to bomb Iran, all three major US indices turned lower during trading. The chip index rose for 15 consecutive days; AMD gained nearly 3.5%, while ASM International surged over 3% on guidance far exceeding expectations for the second quarter. However, Nvidia fell more than 1%. Following the announcement that CEO Tim Cook would step down, Apple dropped 2.5%, while UnitedHealth Group, with first-quarter results beating expectations, rose nearly 7%. US and European government bonds fell in unison. After Trump threatened to bomb Iran, the US dollar index accelerated its rebound, hitting a one-week high during trading. In offshore markets, the renminbi lost the 6.83 level against the dollar for the first time in a week, falling more than 200 points from its intraday high at one point. Bitcoin approached $75,000 during trading, falling more than 2% from its intraday high. In commodities, after Trump threatened to resume bombing Iran, crude oil prices turned higher during trading. After plummeting sharply last Friday, oil prices rebounded for two consecutive days, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising more than 5% at one point. Gold and silver prices fell for two consecutive days. After Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire, gold and silver prices accelerated their decline, hitting daily lows. Spot gold fell more than 3%, while silver futures fell nearly 6%. During the Asian session, A-shares rallied in the afternoon, with all three major indices turning positive. Liquid-cooled servers adjusted, and a trillion-yuan blue-chip stock hit the limit down. The Hang Seng Index oscillated and closed up 0.5%, while CATL set a new record high. Key News China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: To address rising memory prices, it will enhance supply and crack down on "hoarding and profiteering"; it will also support forward-looking research on space computing power. Backed by Nvidia, Winsemi Technologies made its Hong Kong debut with a 50% surge. Its IPO raised HK$20 billion, the largest for Hong Kong stocks this year, with China Investment Corporation and the Norwegian Sovereign Fund leading global giants into the fray. CATL launched its third-generation Shenxing supercharging battery, capable of charging to 98% in six minutes. Sodium-ion batteries are expected to enter mass production this year. Envicool's net profit plummeted by over 80%, causing its stock to hit the limit down, marking the first test for the liquid-cooled narrative. Overseas Trump stated he would not extend the ceasefire and threatened to resume bombing Iran, but reversed course at the last moment, announcing an extension of the ceasefire while maintaining a naval blockade pending a proposal from Iran. Iranian media reported that Iran formally refused to attend the US-Iran negotiations scheduled for the 22nd. The White House stated that Vice President Vance and the US delegation canceled their trip to Pakistan. Uncertainty remains regarding subsequent arrangements for the negotiations. The US expanded its sanctions list targeting Iran. The Department of Defense plans to spend $30 billion to purchase key ammunition such as missile interceptors. Iranian media reported that the entrance and exit of the Strait of Hormuz have been blocked. A State Department official stated that the US has held talks with Cuba, demanding that Cuba introduce Starlink, compensate US individuals and companies whose assets were confiscated, and release political prisoners. At the Walsh hearing, emphasis was placed on the independence of the Federal Reserve. He stated that the Fed must adhere to its statutory duties, needs a new inflation framework and communication strategy, and he would never become Trump's "puppet." He denied ever being asked to make a rate cut commitment. Key Senator Tillis stated that if Congress takes over the Justice Department's investigation into Powell, he might support advancing Walsh's nomination. Apple calmed the market; Cook stated he is healthy and will serve as Executive Chairman for the long term. Market Close US and European Stocks: S&P 500 fell 0.63% to 7,064.01 points. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.59% to 49,149.38 points. Nasdaq Composite fell 0.59% to 24,259.964 points. STOXX 600 Index fell 0.87% to 616.03 points. A-Shares: Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.07% at 4,085.08 points. Shenzhen Component Index closed up 0.10% at 14,982.14 points. ChiNext Index closed up 0.31% at 3,688.94 points. Bond Market: Towards the end of trading, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was approximately 4.29%, rising about 4 basis points intraday. The yield on the 2-year US Treasury note was approximately 3.78%, rising about 6 basis points intraday. Commodities: WTI May crude oil futures closed up 2.81% at $92.13 per barrel. Brent June crude oil futures closed up 3.14% at $98.48 per barrel. COMEX June gold futures closed down 2.26% at $4,719.6 per ounce. COMEX May silver futures closed down more than 4.4% at $76.488 per ounce. LME Tin futures closed down about 1.5% at $49,930 per ton. LME Copper futures closed down about 0.3% at $13,230 per ton. LME Zinc futures closed up about 1% at $3,442 per ton. Key News Details Global Highlights China Memory Prices Surge, MIIT to Intervene. According to the Securities Times, sharp increases in memory prices recently have triggered price hikes in terminal products such as mobile phones. In response, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated it will take multiple measures to ensure stability in the industrial and supply chains. This includes enhancing supply capacity and encouraging increased investment; promoting docking between supply and demand and broadening supply channels; and maintaining market order by cracking down on disruptive behaviors such as "hoarding and profiteering" in accordance with the law. At a press conference on Tuesday, the MIIT also revealed its latest deployment for the computing power industry, stating it will support forward-looking research on space computing technology and orderly promote the development of the space computing industry. Backed by Nvidia, Winsemi Technologies Surges 50% on Hong Kong Debut! CIC and Norwegian Sovereign Fund Lead Global Giants into Fray. This IPO raised a net amount of approximately HK$19.89 billion, becoming the largest Hong Kong IPO so far this year and the largest new share listing in Hong Kong in the past seven months. Reports indicate that CIC, NBIM, BlackRock, and Fidelity participated as ordinary order book buyers rather than cornerstone investors. CATL Launches Third-Generation Shenxing Supercharging Battery, Charges to 98% in Six Minutes; Sodium Batteries to Enter Mass Production This Year. At the "2026 Super Tech Day" launch event, CATL introduced its third-generation Shenxing supercharging battery, breaking another industry record for charging speed—charging from 10% to 98% in just 6 minutes and 27 seconds, surpassing the same metric for BYD's second-generation Blade Battery released in March this year. Meanwhile, Wu Kai, chief scientist of the company and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, announced that core issues in the manufacturing process of sodium-ion batteries have been resolved, and mass production will be achieved this year. CATL Major Shareholder Sells Shares at a 5% Discount Amid Frenzy: What Does It Mean? CATL's major shareholder sold 58 million A-share units via inquiry transfer at a 5.1% discount, attracting competition from 50 institutions with a subscription multiple of 2.1 times. Compared to the average 16% discount for similar transactions, this discount was extremely low. Institutions willing to lock up shares for half a year at near-market prices represent a strong endorsement of its fundamentals and mid-to-long-term value, alleviating concerns about selling pressure and boosting market confidence. Combined with the catalytic expectation of major new technology releases at the tech day, the market is optimistic about its new growth potential. Net Profit Plummets Over 80%, Envicool Hits Limit Down, Liquid-Cooled Narrative Faces First Test! Hit by a triple blow of rising copper prices, expanding capacity costs, and exchange losses, Envicool's first-quarter net profit fell by more than 80%. While the liquid-cooled sector remains prosperous, intensifying industry competition and the time needed to increase the proportion of high-margin overseas sales remain challenges. Institutions believe the current phase is one of expansion pain, and delivery of orders in the second quarter could be the key turning point for profitability. Overseas Last-Moment Reversal! Trump Announces Ceasefire Extension, Maintains Naval Blockade Pending Iran's Proposal. After US markets closed on Tuesday, Trump stated that given the "serious divisions" within the Iranian government, the US decided to extend the ceasefire period until Iran proposes a unified negotiation plan and completes negotiations. During this period, the US military will continue to impose a naval blockade on Iran while maintaining a state of military readiness. Iranian Media Claims Iran Officially Refuses to Attend 22nd US-Iran Negotiations; White House Says Subsequent Arrangements Remain Uncertain. The Iranian side believes the US is obstructing any substantive agreement and that participating in negotiations is a waste of time. The White House stated that after Trump announced the ceasefire extension and waited for Iran to propose a negotiation plan, Vice President Vance and the US negotiation delegation would not travel to Pakistan on Tuesday. Earlier on Tuesday, Trump Said He Would Not Extend Ceasefire, Threatened to Resume Bombing Iran; Reports Say Iran Will Not Attend 22nd Negotiations, Vance Delays Trip. After Trump's threats, all three major US indices turned lower. Reports indicated that Iran accused the US of breaking promises and insisting on excessive demands. US media reported that Vance remained in Washington and would attend a White House meeting; his delay in traveling to Islamabad was due to internal divisions within Iran regarding whether to participate in peace talks. Trump Earlier on Tuesday Expected a "Major Deal" Between US and Iran, Expressed Disappointment if Walsh Does Not Cut Rates Quickly. Iranian State TV: US-Iran Ceasefire Agreement Expires at "Midnight". A spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that due to the US's erratic attitude, no final decision has been made regarding Iran's participation in the Pakistan talks. A member of the Iranian Parliament said there would be no second round of negotiations before the naval blockade is lifted; another parliamentary figure stated that when diplomatic language becomes ineffective, they will choose to continue the war. US Expands Sanctions List Against Iran; Defense Dept Plans to Spend $30 Billion on Missile Interceptors and Other Key Ammunition. The US added several Iranian individuals, enterprises, and aviation assets to its sanctions list, involving counter-terrorism and non-proliferation fields. Reports indicated that US missile interceptor stocks ran low during military operations against Iran. The US military stated it boarded a tanker suspected of being linked to Iran for inspection; US media reported that the tanker was sanctioned by the US Treasury Department for "smuggling Iranian crude oil." Iranian Media Claims Entrance and Exit of Strait of Hormuz Blocked. According to Tasnim News Agency on the 21st, no vessel has the right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz until Iran receives necessary guarantees for the complete lifting of the naval blockade. The strait is currently under tight control by the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, with its entrances and exits blocked. May 1st — The Critical Deadline for Trump's "Willful War". On May 1st, the 60-day deadline under the War Powers Resolution forces Trump into a corner: authorize, withdraw, or openly violate the law? Oil prices have broken $110, war costs have reached $30 billion, and supplementary appropriations have soared to hundreds of billions. Cracks are quietly emerging within the Republican Party. This date, originally existing only in legal texts, is now becoming a political coordinate that global markets must closely watch. State Department Official States US Has Held Talks with Cuba, Demanding Introduction of "Starlink", Compensation for Confiscated Assets to US Individuals and Companies, Release of Political Prisoners, etc.. Meanwhile, Trump repeatedly threatened that "Cuba is next," prompting opposition from countries including Germany, Brazil, Spain, and Mexico, who called for the lifting of sanctions and firmly supported Cuba's defense of national sovereignty. China also declared its firm opposition to the use of force infringing upon other nations' sovereignty. Walsh Hearing Emphasizes Fed Independence, States He Will Never Become Trump's "Puppet," Denies Ever Being Asked to Promise Rate Cuts. Walsh stated that comments by the President and legislators on interest rates would not threaten the Fed's independence. The Fed must adhere to its statutory duties; if it ventures into fiscal and social policies lacking statutory authority, its independence faces the greatest risk. Walsh hopes for "systemic reform" of the Fed, requiring a new inflation framework and new communication methods. He believes Fed officials speak too much and four annual meetings are too few. AI may boost economic productivity without triggering inflation, creating room for rate cuts. The Fed bears responsibility for the US "K-shaped economy" expansion, and its massive balance sheet has amplified its impact on the economy. "New Fed News Agency": Whether Walsh's nomination is confirmed depends on whether Trump or legislators make concessions regarding the investigation into Powell. During the hearing, key Republican Senator Tillis insisted that the nomination would not be supported unless the Department of Justice ended its investigation into Powell. After the hearing, Tillis stated that if Congress takes over the DOJ's investigation into Powell, he might support advancing Walsh's nomination process. US Retail Sales Rose 1.7% Month-on-Month in March, Largest Increase in Over a Year; Soaring Oil Prices Drove Overall Growth. Driven by the war in Iran pushing up oil prices, gasoline station consumption surged by 15.5%, becoming the main driver. Simultaneously, tax refunds from the "Big Beautiful Bill" and a stabilization of the stock market supported consumer resilience. Economists warned that as the tax refund dividend fades, high oil prices persist, and hiring slows, K-shaped consumption divergence will intensify. Whether this strong momentum can continue remains to be tested by April's GDP data. IEA Annual Report: Data Centers Contributed Half of Last Year's US Electricity Demand Growth; Battery Storage Fastest Growing Power Technology Globally. Data centers are becoming a core variable in US electricity demand growth, contributing nearly half of the national electricity increase in 2025, driving electricity demand to outpace overall energy demand and accelerating the trend of "electrification of the economy." On the supply side, solar power became the largest source of global energy additions for the first time, while battery storage installations broke records and surpassed natural gas. Growth in demand for fossil fuels has slowed across the board. Apple Calms Market; Cook States He Is Healthy and Will Serve as Executive Chairman Long-Term. John Ternus, the incoming CEO, stated that AI will create almost infinite potential, creating entirely new opportunities for Apple's products and services, and that Apple will change the world again. Selected Research Reports Value Investing Legend Grantham: Hard Work Can Hinder Thinking; Without AI "Life Support," US Stocks Should Have Plunged 40%. "AI is like someone suddenly discovering railways in 1930. Without the AI boom, US stocks could have fallen 40% in 2023 and entered a deep recession." "Very hard work can actually hinder thinking because you are busy stuffing new data into your brain and have no time to truly think." "Historically, every wave of soaring oil prices led to economic recessions; US stocks completely ignored reality." Cherish the "Golden Pit"; Gold's "Fourth Wave" Is Not Far Off! The fire of war between the US and Iran created a deep pit, but history tells us: the best entry point for gold often lies in moments of despair. Western Securities explicitly stated in its latest report that regardless of what choice the US makes in the final outcome of the Iran conflict, it will almost certainly lead to further cracks in the US dollar's credibility, ushering in gold's fourth wave of "main upward movement" in the second half of the year. After the Rise of Agents, the Distribution of the Entire AI Value Chain Has Changed! Morgan Stanley: GPUs Are No Longer Everything. AI investment is shifting from "competing on GPU computing power" to "full-stack system efficiency." In the agent era, the bottleneck has shifted from computing power to orchestration: GPUs determine whether something can be done, while systems determine whether it can make money. The next wave of excess profits will accelerate towards supply chain segments with the slowest expansion, such as CPUs, memory, and substrates. The curtain has risen on the repricing of infrastructure. Why Is the New Apple CEO Ternus? Hardware engineer John Ternus will succeed Tim Cook as Apple's CEO on September 1st—the first hardware-born leader in Apple's thirty-year history. He led major projects such as the transition to self-developed chips and iPhone Air, enjoying excellent internal reputation. But the question remains: Apple has clearly fallen behind in the AI track; can this engineer, known for "maintaining products," lead Apple out of the trap? The End of the Cook Era, What Will Ternus Bring to Apple? The Cook era ends, with hardware veteran Ternus taking the helm in September. Morgan Stanley believes that neither the vertical integration route of hardware, services, software, and chips nor the strategy of $80-100 billion in annual stock buybacks and single-digit dividend growth will undergo fundamental changes in the short term. However, precisely because of the new CEO, investors' space for reimagining Apple's long-term narrative has opened up. After Jobs stepped down in 2011, Apple outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 57%. Can history endorse this power transition again? Hardware-Born New CEO, Why Can He Lead Apple to Win the AI War? Apple handed the baton to a hardware engineer known for being decisive, faction-free, and close to the front line. This appointment itself is a signal: not competing on cloud computing power, but focusing on terminal integration. But questions arise: does this hardware executive, known for stability and execution, possess the entrepreneurial spirit required to launch innovative product offensives in the AI era? Viewing Assets by Fund Manager Age: Petroleum Is Actually Youngest, Communications and Non-Ferrous Metals Entering Middle Age, Coal and Banks Oldest? Zhongtai Securities used fund manager ages to map the "generational atlas" of A-shares, finding an industry holding age gap of 9.1 years. The market's main theme has shifted from "consumption clustering" to "hard tech + resources," with non-ferrous metals and communications becoming cross-generational consensus. Different age groups show clear divergence: those born in the 60s stick to monopoly leaders, those born in the 80s bet on AI hard tech, and those born in the 90s begin to blend growth and cycles. More critically, asset "age" labels have reversed—new consumption is no longer young, while petroleum attracts young funds, indicating that pricing cores lie in industrial trends rather than labels themselves. Domestic Macro Shanghai Real Estate "Golden March, Silver April" Field Visit: Second-Hand Housing Replacement Chain Propagates Upward, "Sell Old Buy New" Activates New Home Demand. Intermediary data shows that the average transaction price in April rose month-on-month, with daily online signings reaching a high of 1,632 sets, a five-year high. The new home market benefited synchronously, with customer decision cycles shortening significantly and improvement-oriented projects remaining popular. Experts believe that combined with the replacement power driven by active second-hand housing transactions and active marketing cooperation from real estate developers, the hot pattern dominated by rigid demand and first-time improvements is expected to continue in the short term. Domestic Companies UBS Rates Zhipu as "China's Anthropic". Tsinghua-based AI company Zhipu is positioned by UBS as "China's Anthropic": model layer focuses on programming, engineering layer develops autonomous agents, and commercialization is priced by capability. Zhipu's GLM-5.1 open-source long-cycle tasks rank first globally; after a 30% price hike, usage volume increased threefold. ARR surged 6.4 times in four months, even surpassing Anthropic's growth rate. Meanwhile, it offers better cost-performance: capabilities reach 97% of competitors', while prices are only 22%. Chinese Chips, The Hidden Intersection of DeepSeek and Kimi. Kimi released its open-source model K2.6, strengthening code and Agent capabilities. Its latest paper proposed a "prefill-as-a-service" architecture, compressing KV caches significantly through mixed models to achieve inference cost reduction across data centers and heterogeneous hardware. This practice opens a viable path for Chinese models adapting to domestic chips. Even before DeepSeek V4 is released, Kimi has taken the lead in paving the way for the combination of "Chinese Chips + Chinese Models." Gold Volume and Price Both Rise, Zijin Mining Q1 Revenue Approaches 100 Billion Yuan Mark, Net Profit Doubles. Zijin Mining's first-quarter revenue grew 24.8% year-on-year to 98.498 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 20.08 billion yuan, a 97.50% year-on-year increase. Mineral gold and lithium carbonate production volumes grew year-on-year, while mineral copper production decreased slightly due to a decline in equity copper production at Kamoa-Kakula. Prices of major metal varieties rose year-on-year, fully releasing price dividends and significantly boosting operating performance. China Unicom Q1 Revenue 102.8 Billion Yuan, Net Profit 2.1 Billion Yuan, Computing Power Business Revenue Grows 8% Year-on-Year. China Unicom's 2026 first-quarter report showed revenue of 102.8 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.1 billion yuan. The company promoted transformation around four major tracks: "connection, computing power, service, security." The connection base remained stable, with IoT connections exceeding 750 million. Computing power business revenue reached 15.4 billion yuan, becoming a growth engine. Nearly 10,000 5G factories were implemented, international business grew double digits, and security business accelerated simultaneously. Transformation results are beginning to show. Fuyao Glass Q1 Revenue Grew 5% Year-on-Year, Core Profit Increased Nearly 10% After Excluding Exchange Gains/Losses. Fuyao Glass's 2026 first-quarter report showed revenue of 10.413 billion yuan, a 5.08% year-on-year increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.712 billion yuan. Profit fluctuations were mainly due to exchange rates: exchange losses this period were 439 million yuan, compared to gains of 236 million yuan in the same period last year. Excluding this, total profit actually grew by 9.63%. Cost control was steady, with revenue growth far exceeding cost growth; construction in progress remained high at 8.3 billion yuan, R&D expenses grew by 19.6%, and the company is actively increasing capacity and high-value-added products. Overseas Macro Energy Shock Crushes Industrial Heartland! Germany's April Economic Sentiment Index Plummets to -17.2, Lowest Level in Over Three Years. The Middle East conflict pushed up energy prices, causing Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index to plummet to -17.2, the lowest level since December 2022. Industrial output continued to decline, and the IMF lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 0.8%. Energy shocks are spreading from market confidence to the real economy, with the service sector also under pressure. Middle East Crisis No Obstacle, South Korea's Early April Export Momentum Remains Strong, Chips Surge 182.5%. Latest data shows that in the first 20 days of April, South Korea's total exports reached $50.4 billion, a 49.4% year-on-year increase, setting a historical record for the same period. Semiconductors were the primary engine of this strong export performance. Under the strong pull of the AI and data center investment boom, the proportion of semiconductor exports in total exports rose by 17.1 percentage points year-on-year to 36.3%, also setting a historical record for the same period. Today's News Preview The Ministry of Finance will issue 15.5 billion yuan in government bonds in Hong Kong. Tesla earnings report and conference call. Google Conference: Google Cloud Next opens. ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech. US EIA crude oil inventory changes for last week.