Markets had previously acted as if the Iran war had ended, but with the existing ceasefire set to expire on April 22 and lacking clear progress toward a peace deal, oil prices rose and U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday.
When news broke at the last minute that Iran had refused to negotiate, markets with high expectations for TACO were caught off guard.
It wasn't until after hours... that Trump extended the ceasefire, bringing back the familiar TACO rhythm.
Goldman Sachs:
Stocks are, of course, forward-looking instruments, but their current value depends solely on the information available to the market.
In the absence of a clear solution or a clear path to one, the drop early Tuesday morning came as no particular surprise.
However, the market does not appear to have fully priced in the expectation that no agreement will be reached—the magnitude of today's decline is far less than what we saw in March, indicating that the market still expects an agreement to be reached; the question now is simply when.
But as Yogi Berra famously said, &#34;It ain't over till it's over,&#34; and the market remains in a wait-and-see stance at this point.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/c3ab9bb6-573f-46a6-bbad-33b9dbef6edd.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/c3ab9bb6-573f-46a6-bbad-33b9dbef6edd.jpeg"/>

Trump pulled a last-minute reversal, announcing an extension of the ceasefire and maintaining the naval blockade pending a proposal from Iran. Iranian media reported that Iran formally refused to attend the US-Iran talks on the 22nd, and the White House stated that Vance and the US delegation canceled their trip to Pakistan, leaving the future arrangements of the negotiations uncertain. Do you think Iran will compromise first, or will Trump give in first? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!

Trump pulled a last-minute reversal, announcing an extension of the ceasefire and maintaining the naval blockade pending a proposal from Iran. Iranian media reported that Iran formally refused to attend the US-Iran talks on the 22nd, and the White House stated that Vance and the US delegation canceled their trip to Pakistan, leaving the future arrangements of the negotiations uncertain. Do you think Iran will compromise first, or will Trump give in first? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!

With US-Iran negotiations deadlocked, how long can the ceasefire last?

Lack of clear progress on a ceasefire agreement regarding the Iran war drove oil prices up and U.S. stocks down. Despite Iran's refusal to negotiate, President Trump's extension of the ceasefire restored market confidence. Goldman Sachs noted that stock values depend on available market information; while expectations for an agreement persist, today's decline was smaller than in March, leaving the market in a wait-and-see state

- Oil prices rose and U.S. stocks fell as the ceasefire agreement concerning Iran is set to expire on April 22, amid unclear progress on peace negotiations.  
- Market expectations were caught off guard by Iran's last-minute refusal to negotiate, although a subsequent extension of the ceasefire by Trump restored some market stability.  
- Goldman Sachs noted that while stocks are forward-looking, the current value is based on available information, and despite the lack of a clear resolution, the market does not fully anticipate a failure in reaching an agreement.

"TACO Tuesday" Arrives, Though Late