Global oil inventories are accelerating downward at a record-breaking pace. While global stock markets bask in celebrations of historic highs, the crude oil market is unfolding a starkly different narrative.
According to data from Goldman Sachs, since April, daily visible global oil inventory drawdowns have averaged 6.3 million barrels. Including &#34;invisible&#34; stocks outside OECD nations, daily consumption reached a staggering 10.9 million barrels—the highest monthly drawdown rate since 2017. Since the outbreak of conflict in the Persian Gulf, total estimated oil consumption has accumulated to 474 million barrels. Even with traffic flow through the Strait of Hormuz remaining at approximately 10% of normal levels, this consumption trend is unlikely to reverse in the short term.
<h2>Inventory Crisis: Drawdown Rate Hits Historic Record</h2>
Brent crude prices have been unusually stable over the past week, largely holding within the high $90 per barrel range.
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Goldman Sachs analysis attributes this stability to the confluence of three factors: lower geopolitical risk premiums, pre-emptive destocking by the market in anticipation of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and a temporary weakening in immediate procurement demand.
These three elements collectively suppressed prices, causing futures, spot, and refined product prices to retreat since the ceasefire—despite actual flows through the Strait of Hormuz remaining extremely low and global inventory drawdowns continuing at an extreme pace.
Pressure is clearly visible in the data.
Since April, daily visible global oil inventory drawdowns have averaged 6.3 million barrels; if non-OECD countries' &#34;invisible&#34; refined product stocks are included, Goldman Sachs estimates total daily consumption for April reached 10.9 million barrels, the largest single-month drawdown rate since 2017. Total estimated oil consumption since the outbreak of the Persian Gulf conflict has reached 474 million barrels.
Currently, oil flows through the Persian Gulf, including pipeline diversions, have fallen to 9.3 million barrels per day, only 40% of normal levels. Since the U.S. began implementing a blockade on April 12, this figure has declined by approximately 2.6 million barrels per day. Iranian oil exports have plummeted to roughly 300,000 barrels per day.
Goldman Sachs projects that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens completely, constrained by logistical bottlenecks such as capacity restarts, tanker sailing times, and pipeline rates, the recovery of flows will be a gradual process, and global inventory drawdowns may extend into May or even longer.
It is worth noting that inventory drawdowns have a natural floor. Once stocks reach their operational minimum level, and with supply unable to recover, the sole rebalancing mechanism will be demand destruction.
<h2>Spot-Futures Divergence: Price Signals Growing Confused</h2>
The pricing system in the crude oil market is sending chaotic signals.
Extreme inventory drawdowns imply that if the market perceives supply disruptions as relatively short-term, spot delivery prices will far exceed forward prices, creating a deeply inverted futures curve (backwardation). This is the core explanation for the apparent divergence between recent spot and futures prices.
Measured by EFP (Futures-to-Physical Premium), the premium for converting Brent futures into physical delivery over the past two months never exceeded $2 per barrel. However, the premium of Dated Brent (spot physical) over near-month futures (DFL indicator), while retreating from highs near $40 per barrel, remains elevated at approximately $10 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs believes the shift from panic buying in March to active destocking in April is the primary reason for the stabilization of spot prices recently. Reports indicate that some Asian refineries—particularly Chinese ones—have relisted previously purchased crude for sale. However, this destocking behavior is unsustainable. Once stocks hit the lower limit, the spot market will face a new, more severe price shock.
<h2>US Exports Hit Record Levels, But Growth Space Nears Limits</h2>
The sole bright spot on the supply side comes from the United States. US oil exports have surged to a record 12.7 million barrels per day, and May outbound transport data suggests exports may climb further.
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However, several key Texas pipelines are already operating at or above full capacity, meaning there is very limited room for further growth in US exports.
Global in-transit crude buffers are also nearing exhaustion: non-sanctioned in-transit crude is near historic lows; Russian crude imports have fallen below the 2025 annual average; and the US exemption for in-transit Iranian crude imports has expired without renewal.
Goldman Sachs warns that while benchmark oil price forecasts face risks in both directions, a longer-than-expected duration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and more persistent supply losses in the Middle East would create significant net upward pressure. For investors ignoring oil market risks in favor of equity market sentiment, this serves as a warning difficult to ignore for long.
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Global oil inventories are being drawn down at a record pace, with daily consumption reaching 6.3 million barrels, and up to 10.9 million barrels when including invisible stocks. Despite robust performance in global equity markets, the crude market faces an inventory crisis. Goldman Sachs analysis indicates that Brent crude prices have remained stable due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums, pre-emptive destocking ahead of the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a temporary weakening in spot demand. Inventory drawdowns are projected to continue through May, and once stocks hit their operational minimums, demand destruction could be triggered

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Global Markets in Jubilation, Yet Oil Market Remains as Dire as at the War's Outset: Global Inventories Nearing Historic Lows