NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran published a valuation of SpaceX on Thursday at $1.2 trillion, roughly a third below the $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion range the company is reportedly targeting for its IPO.



The “Dean of Valuation” built the number from scratch without a prospectus, breaking the company into three businesses: space launch, Starlink, and xAI, which SpaceX absorbed in February, plus an “expansion option” for adjacent markets like space travel.



His model has revenues climbing from $15.6 billion in 2025 to roughly $320 billion a decade out, with a consolidated operating margin near 48%. Starlink does most of the work. It made up around 65% of 2025 revenues. The rockets were 30%.



“This is a big story with a big payoff,” Damodaran said. His $1.2 trillion base case landed “about 10% below the private market pricing” and “a third below what people are expecting the pricing to be.”



<h2>The Polymarket Scorecard</h2>



Traders are not with him, but they may not be measuring the same thing. As Damodaran himself put it, “companies are priced, not valued” at IPO. A hype-driven listing can clear well above fair value and Damodaran can still be right on the fundamentals.



Polymarket’s SpaceX valuation contract prices the $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion bracket at 48%. Damodaran’s number falls into the $1.25 trillion to $1.50 trillion bucket, which traders are pricing at 11%.



A separate contract gives SpaceX a 90% probability of being the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, and traders expect the IPO to be completed by the end of June. 



<h2>The Musk Package</h2>



Damodaran has owned Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) since 2019 and called SpaceX Elon Musk’s “most impressive contribution.” He also warned investors not to cherry-pick.



“You get the package. You get the Musk package, the good stuff, the bad stuff,” he said. “It’s not fair complaining about the things about Musk you don’t like because they come bundled in.”



That package will now include supervoting shares. SpaceX is listing under a dual-class structure that gives Musk 10 votes per share against one vote for outside investors, letting him control up to 80% of the vote on roughly 42% of the equity. It is the governance setup he has said he wishes he had at Tesla.



To account for the uncertainty, Damodaran ran a Monte Carlo simulation that spat out a range from $660 billion to $2.8 trillion, with a median of $1.28 trillion. A $1.75 trillion IPO would land at the upper end of that distribution.



He said he would be “reluctant to buy SpaceX” at that price. Closer to $1 trillion, he would be a buyer.



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Aswath Damodaran, a valuation expert, values SpaceX at $1.2 trillion, which is 30% below its rumored IPO target of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. He warns Tesla investors about the bundled risks associated with Elon Musk's ventures. Damodaran's model predicts significant revenue growth, primarily driven by Starlink. He expresses reluctance to invest at the higher IPO price, suggesting he would consider buying closer to $1 trillion. The IPO is expected to be the largest by market cap in 2026, with a dual-class share structure favoring Musk's control.

- NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran valued SpaceX at $1.2 trillion, lower than the company's IPO target range of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion.  
- He analyzed SpaceX's three main business segments and projected significant revenue growth, with Starlink contributing 65% of 2025 revenues.  
- Damodaran cautioned investors about the complexities of investing in companies tied to Elon Musk, emphasizing that his valuation reflects fundamentals rather than speculative market pricing.

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SpaceX Is 30% Overvalued, 'Dean Of Valuation' Says: Why He's Not Buying The Moonshot Numbers