Will electrifying the UK’s heavy-duty trucks require more vehicles overall?

A delivery truck run is being simulated from London to East Midlands Airport in what the Heriot-Watt University project is calling the first such simulation in the UK. The researchers see the East Midlands Airport as an ideal test case, because it is the UK’s largest dedicated express air freight hub and handles roughly 400,000 tonnes of cargo a year. The researchers say that the findings from this corridor, linked to tight schedules and time-critical air cargo, are also likely to be useful for electrifying long-haul routes.The research project is utilising the TransiT research hub for digital twins that are digital replicas of real-world transport systems to map out the different challenges of electrifying the country’s freight transport systems. The project is also relying on data from part of DHL’s 6,500-strong UK fleet of trucks and vans.Dr Alex Foote, a TransiT researcher at Heriot-Watt University, explains that the DHL data is used to model the transition from an all-diesel fleet to a fully electric one by 2050. “Using the data from DHL, we’re starting to add in electric trucks to the fleet, to understand the impact of this, based on the frequency and volume of freight they’re moving,” says Foote.The simulation will examine charging at DHL depots and service stations along the M1. According to Foote, the most effective answer to minimising charging times during revenue-earning journey time may be to charge at the depot before a shift or during downtime between jobs, although he acknowledges that motorway charging may still be unavoidable on longer routes.“Research in this area is essential to the future of our road and air freight operations because it underpins the technologies that will help us to cut carbon at scale while keeping our customers’ goods moving,” explains Lorna Dean, Head of UK Network and Linehaul Planning, DHL Express. “Supporting this work now will position us to meet the growing demand for lower carbon logistics and build a transport network that supports our climate goals.”The research team will be using agent-based modelling, placing virtual drivers, trucks, and other “agents” within a simulated network. This makes it possible to compare routes, chargers, charging speeds and fleet mixes, and to establish where the local grid might come under pressure if too many trucks charge simultaneously.“The great advantage of agent-based models is that the agents can tell us what the best solution is,” Foote explains.The first digital twin model experiments with a scenario in which 10 per cent of the trucks on DHL’s London to East Midlands Airport route are electric by 2030, climbing to a share of 50 per cent by 2050 and 100 per cent by mid-century. New vehicles and chargers are added to the model as the simulation develops.An air freight model is being built at Cranfield University that will later build on the information from the road freight simulation, similarly in partnership with DHL and East Midlands Airport. According to TransiT, the long-term goal is to create a connected web of digital twings covering the entire UK transport network.Foote says that the UK is “behind the curve” on electric HGV uptake. Given the current oil crisis and the UK’s particular vulnerabilities with rising diesel prices, this could be considered an understatement. Foote says the research could show how to best make progress “without too many big infrastructure changes.”trans-info, hw.ac.uk