Looming Quantum Threat as PQC Market Expands

A recent study by Juniper Research projects that the post-quantum cryptography (PQC) market will expand from $1.2 billion in 2026 to $13 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of 30%.This growth is driven by emerging regulations and sustained R&D aimed at preparing for “Q-Day,” when quantum computers could break current encryption. The study examines technology adoption across 61 countries, underscoring the global scale of this transition.Although Q-Day is still in the future, it already affects how companies manage risk. One big worry for security teams is the “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” tactic, in which hackers collect and store encrypted company data today with the intention of decrypting it once quantum computers are ready.Louis Atkin, a research analyst at Juniper Research and the author of the study, indicated that corporate awareness remains a notable obstacle to addressing this vulnerability. “Many businesses still underestimate the risk of quantum-enabled attacks; making clearer, more accessible education critical to securing internal buy-in,” Atkin said.To prompt concrete action at the executive level, experts advise framing the quantum threat as an immediate compliance concern rather than a distant technical challenge. Nick Maynard, VP of market research at Juniper Research, told EE Times that long-term data is already at risk.“Ultimately, the easiest way to explain it is this: Attackers don’t need to break your encryption today, they just need to store it,” Maynard said. “If the data still has value in 5, 10, or 20 years, it’s already at risk. Once you frame it that way, it stops being some theoretical problem for the future and starts looking like a current-day data retention and risk management issue.”For enterprises, transitioning to quantum-resistant algorithms involves substantial infrastructural planning. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has established specific cryptographic algorithms, such as module-lattice-based key-encapsulation mechanism (ML-KEM) and CRYSTALS-Dilithium, to serve as secure standards. These methods use complex mathematical structures, such as lattice-based problems, which are currently considered resistant to quantum computing decryption techniques.However, using these new algorithms requires specialized computing power and can be hard to fit into older systems, especially for microcontrollers with limited memory. To avoid major disruptions, many companies are turning to hybrid cryptography. This approach adds quantum-resistant protection on top of current methods such as RSA or elliptic curve cryptography, so companies get extra security without having to replace everything right away.Maynard said he views this as a necessary operational bridge for enterprises. “Right now, hybrid cryptography is the practical way forward,” he stated. “It lets organizations add quantum-resistant protection without ripping out what already works. In the short term, it’s definitely a bridge, but it could stick around longer than people expect because it gives you resilience against both classical and quantum threats at the same time.”To lower barriers to adoption, service providers now offer post-quantum cryptography-as-a-service. With this cloud-based option, companies can use quantum-safe encryption through APIs. This means they don’t need to hire specialized technical staff or change much hardware, making it easier to get started.As global companies deploy these new security systems, a parallel challenge emerges: aligning regulations across regions. Cryptography needs to work smoothly across borders for supply chains and communication. The Juniper Research study underscores the need for coordinated action among organizations to maintain robust security throughout the transition.Atkin pointed out the current reliance on U.S. standards. “Many countries have accepted NIST’s standardized algorithms as the de facto quantum-safe option, even in nations with limited understanding of the quantum landscape,” Atkin noted. “It is vital this continues and that different sectors consider how their systems interoperate when implementing quantum-safe solutions.”Even though NIST exerts significant influence, regional frameworks are likely to emerge in parallel, including those from the European Telecommunications Standards Institute. Maynard admitted there may be some regulatory bumps, but he expects greater alignment over time.“There’s a real risk of fragmentation early on,” Maynard explained. “Different countries are moving at different speeds, and some are exploring their own standards, which could create compatibility issues. But at the same time, there’s strong pressure to converge, because cryptography only works if systems can talk to each other. What you’ll probably see is some short-term divergence, followed by gradual alignment around a core set of widely trusted standards.”For business leaders and technology executives, the move to post-quantum security will require fundamental changes to core cybersecurity architectures. Preparing for this transition involves reassessing data retention policies early, adopting hybrid cryptographic approaches, and closely tracking evolving global standards.With the market projected to reach $13 billion over the next decade, companies will need to integrate these new safeguards while maintaining operational continuity.PQC Timelines Provide Direction, but Not ActionCatalyzing Europe’s Quantum LeapBillions of Devices are at Risk from Quantum ComputingInside the PQC Overhaul, a Year LaterPablo is a seasoned engineer with 30+ years of experience. For over 10 years, he's been a contributing editor for EE Times (now editor of the Supply Chain section). He also wrote for EPSNews, InformationWeek, EBN, LightReading, Network Computing, and IEEE Xplore. His coverage spans Supply Chain, Semiconductors, Networks, IoT, Security, and Smart Cities. He holds an MEng, Electrical and Electronics Engineering from The Ohio State University. Follow Pablo on LinkedInYou must Register or Login to post a comment.This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.