SG Morning Brief | US-Iran Deal Hopes Crush Oil, S&P and Nasdaq Hit Records Again

US OvernightThe S&P 500 surged 1.46% to a record 7,365.12, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.02% to a record 25,838.94, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 612.34 points (+1.24%) to 49,910.59 — all three closing at new all-time highs. The Russell 2000 also set a record. The dominant catalyst was an Axios report that the White House believes it is nearing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the war and establish a framework for nuclear talks. WTI crude collapsed 7% to $95.08 per barrel, while Brent plunged 8% to $101.27, its biggest one-day drop since April. Trump paused "Project Freedom," the naval effort to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress in negotiations, though he cautioned that a deal was "perhaps, a big assumption." All S&P 500 sectors rose except energy (-4.2%) and utilities (-1.2%). The ADP employment report showed 109,000 private-sector jobs added in April, slightly below the 120,000 consensus but nearly double March's 61,000.Key MoversAMD (AMD) +19% — AMD's blowout Q1 report drove its best post-earnings single-day gain in seven years. The stock closed at $421.39, up $66.13 (+18.6%) from Tuesday's $355.26 close. CEO Lisa Su told CNBC that agentic AI is driving "tremendous demand" for CPUs, shifting AI infrastructure spending beyond GPUs. Bernstein upgraded AMD to Outperform with a $525 price target (from $265), Barclays raised to $500, and Cantor Fitzgerald went to $500. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) hit a record close, up 5%.Corning (GLW) +12% — Corning surged to an all-time high of $181.57 after announcing a multiyear commercial and technology partnership with Nvidia to expand U.S.-based optical connectivity manufacturing by 10x. Nvidia purchased $500 million in warrants and pre-funded shares. Corning will build three new facilities in North Carolina and Texas, creating 3,000 jobs and boosting fiber production by 50%. The deal positions Corning as a second-order AI infrastructure play, validating optical connectivity as a strategic bottleneck.Arm Holdings (ARM) +14% — ARM jumped 13.63% to $237.30 on semiconductor sector tailwinds and anticipation of its own earnings report after the close. The stock initially surged further in after-hours to $262.53 after reporting Q4 EPS of $0.60 (vs $0.58 est) on revenue of $1.49 billion (vs $1.47B est). However, the stock reversed sharply to $219.24 (-7.6% from close) after management disclosed that while customer demand for the new Arm AGI CPU exceeded $2 billion, the company has only secured supply for the first $1 billion. The supply gap spooked investors.Walt Disney (DIS) +8% — Disney rose 7.54% to $108.06 in its first earnings report under new CEO Josh D'Amaro. Fiscal Q2 adjusted EPS came in at $1.57 versus the $1.49 consensus, on revenue of $25.17 billion (+7% YoY) versus $24.78 billion expected. The company raised full-year share buybacks to $8 billion from $7 billion and guided for double-digit adjusted earnings growth in fiscal 2027. CFO Hugh Johnston told CNBC the company is seeing "a strong consumer" with no evidence of spending pullback despite high fuel prices.Super Micro Computer (SMCI) +25% — The AI server maker surged 24.54% to $34.66 after reporting better-than-expected profits and guiding fiscal Q4 EPS of $0.65-0.79 per share, well above the $0.55 consensus. The rally reinforces the theme that AI infrastructure demand is broadening beyond chip designers to the companies building the physical racks.SGX PreviewThe STI closed around 4,940-4,950 on Wednesday, up approximately 0.6% from the previous close of 4,912.69, buoyed by US record highs and easing geopolitical tensions. Today's session should see a continuation bid: US futures are pointing sharply higher again (S&P +0.9%, Nasdaq +1.5%), oil is down another 3-4% toward $91, and the semiconductor rally is in full swing. DBS, which accounts for roughly a quarter of the STI's weight, should benefit from the improving risk appetite, though its Q1 results (released April 30) already showed strong net interest income. OCBC and UOB also stand to gain from lower oil-driven inflation expectations. Venture Corp and other local tech-adjacent names may catch a bid on the AMD/SMCI momentum. However, energy names like Keppel could face headwinds as oil pulls back.Asia Pre-MarketS&P 500 futures are up 0.87%, Nasdaq 100 futures are gaining 1.5%, and Dow futures are 1.05% higher — a strong overnight hand-off. WTI crude is trading around $91.46, down sharply from Wednesday's $95.08 close, extending the Iran-deal-driven selloff. Gold has surged to $4,712 (+3.1%), reflecting the crosscurrents of easing geopolitical risk (oil down) versus safe-haven demand (gold up). Bitcoin is at $80,937 (+2.7%). The risk-on tone is unmistakable, but oil's decline has also removed a key inflationary headwind, which could reshape rate expectations if the move holds.Today's US Earnings and Economic CalendarCompanyTimingConsensus EPSConsensus RevenueShell (SHEL)Pre-mktTBDTBDMcDonald's (MCD)Pre-mktTBDTBDCoreWeave (CRWV)Post-mktTBDTBDCoinbase (COIN)Post-mktTBDTBDAirbnb (ABNB)Post-mktTBDTBDGilead Sciences (GILD)Post-mktTBDTBDEventTime (ET)Time (SGT)Challenger Job Cuts (April)7:30 AM7:30 PMConstruction Spending (Feb)10:00 AM10:00 PMEarnings Spotlight: CoreWeave (CRWV) — The GPU cloud computing company, which IPO'd in Q1, reports its closely watched fifth quarterly print as a public company. CoreWeave has been one of the most polarizing AI infrastructure plays — bulls see it as the picks-and-shovels play on hyperscaler overflow demand, while bears worry about its leverage and customer concentration (primarily Microsoft). After AMD's beat confirmed surging AI compute demand and SMCI's rally validated the server build-out, CoreWeave's report will test whether the infrastructure wave has spread to the cloud compute layer. Friday's nonfarm payrolls will cap the week, with any downward revisions to past reports increasingly worth watching.One More ThingThe Iran deal talk is the most important macro development of the month. If the conflict ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the energy supply shock that has defined markets since March begins to unwind. WTI has already fallen from $106 on Monday to $91 this morning — a 14% drop in four days. That is not just good for consumers and airlines; it is fundamentally disinflationary, which gives the Fed cover to cut later this year. The combination of falling oil, record corporate earnings, and broadening AI spending created Wednesday's everything-rally. But the deal is not done. Trump himself said Iran's acceptance is "a big assumption." And even if it is signed, restarting trade through the strait will take weeks. Twenty-three thousand seafarers are still stranded. Meanwhile, ARM's after-hours reversal is a cautionary note: even in the strongest semiconductor rally in years, supply constraints and valuation gravity can punish a stock in minutes. The chip sector has rallied 14% in three months. It has earned every basis point of that move on fundamentals, but the RSI on the S&P 500 is now above 70 — traditionally overbought territory. Stay invested, but stay honest about where we are in the cycle.This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.