Seasonal trends point to summer rally in long-term treasuries

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Seasonal setup: From now through early August, historical data shows a strong tendency for long-term Treasury prices to rise and yields to fall. Market drivers: Lower liquidity, reinvestment flows, equity rotation, and softer economic data often create a bullish environment for bonds in summer. Extra tailwinds: Easing U.S.-Iran tensions and potential oil price declines could ease inflation concerns, supporting long-end bond demand.

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