SG Morning Brief | Yields Hit 19-Year Highs, S&P Posts Third Straight Loss on Nvidia Eve

US OvernightThe S&P 500 fell 0.67% to 7,353.61, the Nasdaq dropped 0.84% to 25,870.71, and the Dow shed 322.24 points (-0.65%) to 49,363.88 — the S&P's third straight losing session. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5.19%, its highest level in nearly 19 years, while the 10-year hit 4.687%, the highest since January 2025. The bond selloff was the dominant force: rising long-end yields are repricing risk assets across the board, and no sector was spared. The Russell 2000 hit a four-week low at 2,725. Home Depot beat Q1 earnings estimates, but the stock failed to rally in the broader risk-off environment. Trump said the Nvidia H200 chip sale to China "didn't come up" during the Beijing summit, and that China wants to develop its own chips — dampening the export-clearance optimism from last week. Google and Blackstone announced plans to create a new AI cloud company. Meta detailed layoff plans in an internal memo.Key MoversCisco (CSCO) -3% — Cisco gave back part of last week's 13% post-earnings rally, falling 3.04% to lead Dow decliners. The stock is still up roughly 18% since reporting record revenue on May 13 but is getting repriced as yields rise and the market rotates away from recent winners.Nvidia (NVDA) — Nvidia slipped ahead of tonight's earnings report after Trump said the H200 China deal was not discussed during the Beijing summit and that China wants to develop its own chips. The stock has pulled back roughly 7% from its all-time high of $230, though it remains up for the month.Boeing (BA) -3% — Boeing fell 2.62% as the China 200-plane order continued to disappoint investors who had expected 300+ jets. The stock has dropped 9% over two sessions since the Trump-Xi summit ended.SGX PreviewThe STI was trading near 5,004 on Monday, close to its all-time high of 5,041. DBS was at S$57.70, UOB at S$38.54, and Singtel at S$5.07. The overnight US selloff and rising global yields may pressure the STI today, though the index has shown resilience near the 5,000 level. Tonight's Nvidia earnings will determine sentiment for Asian tech names tomorrow. If Nvidia delivers, Venture Corp and the local semiconductor complex should rally. If it disappoints, the three-session US losing streak could extend into Asia.Asia Pre-MarketS&P 500 futures are down 0.27%, Nasdaq futures down 0.45%, and Dow futures down 0.16% — cautious but not panicked. Gold is at $4,545 (-0.28%), Bitcoin at $76,864 (-0.16%), and Brent crude at $109.90 (-1.96%), easing as Iran negotiation hopes persist. The Nasdaq futures underperformance reflects hedging ahead of Nvidia. Tonight is the most important single event for markets in Q2.Today's US Earnings and Economic CalendarCompanyTimingConsensus EPSConsensus RevenueNvidia (NVDA)Post-mkt~$1.05$70-78BTarget (TGT)Pre-mktTBDTBDEventTime (ET)Time (SGT)FOMC Minutes (Apr 29)2:00 PM2:00 AM (May 21)Earnings Spotlight: Nvidia — This is the print. Consensus expects revenue of $70-78 billion (+~60% YoY), driven by data center demand for H200 and Blackwell chips. The FOMC minutes from the April 29 meeting (the 8-4 split with three hawkish dissents) land at 2 PM ET, two hours before Nvidia reports. If the minutes reveal debate about rate hikes, the market enters Nvidia's print in a fragile state. The setup: S&P down three straight sessions, the 30-year yield at 19-year highs, and the chip sector off 7% from its peak. A beat-and-raise reignites the AI rally. A miss — or cautious guidance on China exports — could trigger the first 5%+ correction since March.One More ThingThe 30-year yield at 5.19% is now a bigger story than Nvidia earnings. Rising long-end yields mean the US government is paying more to borrow, mortgages are getting more expensive, corporate discount rates are rising, and every growth stock's present value is shrinking. The AI trade has thrived in a low-rate, high-growth environment. If yields stay above 5%, that environment is over. Nvidia can beat tonight and the stock can still fall if the bond market keeps selling off. Jensen Huang needs to deliver not just strong numbers but a guidance narrative powerful enough to make investors ignore a 5% 30-year yield. That is a high bar, even for the most important company in the world.This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.