SG Morning Brief | S&P Posts Eight-Week Win Streak, Dow Hits Record; US Markets Closed Today

Weekend WrapUS markets are closed today for Memorial Day. The key weekend development: Secretary of State Rubio said there are "good signs" of an Iran peace agreement, but warned any deal is "unfeasible" if Iran seeks permanent control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and the US remain at odds over Tehran's enriched uranium stockpile and Hormuz tolls. Brent crude is hovering around $100, its lowest level in several weeks. The University of Michigan's long-run inflation expectations climbed to 3.9% in May from 3.5% in April, signaling that consumers are not yet convinced the inflation threat is fading.US Overnight (Friday Close)The S&P 500 rose 0.37% to a record 7,473.47, and the Dow gained 0.58% to a record 50,579.70 — crossing 50,500 intraday for the first time. The Nasdaq edged up 0.19% to 26,343.97 and the Russell 2000 jumped 0.91% to 2,869.23. The S&P 500 notched its eighth consecutive weekly gain, the longest winning streak since December 2023. For the week, the Dow led with a 2.1% advance, the S&P added 0.9%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.5%. Treasury yields eased from their midweek highs, offering relief to rate-sensitive equities. Arm Holdings extended its weekly rally to nearly 50% following Nvidia's earnings call, which highlighted the "$200 billion addressable market" for Arm-based Vera CPUs. Nvidia slipped 1.86% as post-earnings drift continued.SGX PreviewThe STI was trading near 5,004 earlier in the week. DBS was at S$57.70, UOB at S$38.54. With US markets closed today, SGX will trade on Asian flows alone. The Dow's record close and easing oil prices set a constructive backdrop. Banks should hold well as the higher-for-longer rate environment persists, and the Iran peace progress — if confirmed — could ease the energy-driven inflation that has pressured Singapore's trade-dependent economy. Venture Corp and local tech names may benefit from the ARM-driven semiconductor momentum.Asia Pre-MarketUS futures do not trade today (Memorial Day). Friday's close: VIX 16.70 (-0.36%), Gold $4,523.20 (-0.42%), Bitcoin $76,617 (+1.80%), Brent crude $100.21 (+0.71%). The muted VIX and Brent near $100 suggest the market is in a comfortable holding pattern heading into a shortened US trading week. Tuesday's reopen will be the first test of whether the eight-week streak can extend to nine.This Week's US Earnings and Economic CalendarUS markets reopen Tuesday May 26. Key events:EventDateTime (ET)Time (SGT)Consumer ConfidenceTue May 2610:00 AM10:00 PMFOMC Minutes (already released)———Q1 GDP (2nd Estimate)Thu May 288:30 AM8:30 PMCore PCE (April)Fri May 298:30 AM8:30 PMNo Mag 7 earnings this week. SpaceX IPO targeted for June 12.Data Spotlight: April Core PCE (Friday May 29) — The Fed's preferred inflation gauge arrives at the end of a shortened week. March core PCE was +2.6% YoY, and the April print will reflect the full impact of $100+ oil on consumer prices. If core PCE rises toward 3%, the rate hike narrative hardens further under new Chair Warsh. If it holds near 2.6%, the market gets breathing room to extend the rally. The Q1 GDP second estimate on Thursday will also matter: Q4 2025 was just 0.5%, and any further weakness raises stagflation concerns.One More ThingEight straight weeks. S&P at 7,473. Dow at a record above 50,500. And yet the University of Michigan says consumers expect 3.9% inflation over the long run — the highest reading in over a year. The market and the consumer are living in two different realities. Stocks are pricing in an Iran deal, falling oil, and AI-driven earnings growth. Consumers are pricing in $4.50 gasoline, rising grocery bills, and 5% mortgage rates. Both can be right temporarily, but not indefinitely. This week's PCE on Friday will tell us which reality is closer to the truth. If the Iran deal closes and oil drops to $80, the consumer catches up to the market. If it doesn't, the market eventually catches down to the consumer.This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.