For the past few decades, there has been an iron rule in the semiconductor industry: the smaller the chip, the better. From microns to nanometers, from 90nm to 3nm, with each advancement in process technology, performance improves and power consumption decreases. This is &#34;Moore's Law&#34; — the number of transistors on a chip doubles every 18-24 months.
However, this path is nearing its end. When transistors shrink to the size of just a few dozen atoms, electrons can &#34;run amok&#34; (quantum tunneling), leading to leakage, heat generation, and instability. More realistically, the investment for a 3nm wafer fab exceeds $20 billion, and only a few giants can afford it. Moore's Law is slowing down, even becoming ineffective.
At this point, Huawei proposed the &#34;Tao Law.&#34;
It does not negate Moore's Law but takes a different path: instead of shrinking size, it shrinks time.
The core of Moore's Law is &#34;geometric miniaturization&#34; — making transistors smaller and fitting more devices into the same area. The core of the Tao Law is &#34;time miniaturization&#34; — instead of competing on physical size, it innovates through design (such as logical folding, 3D stacking, multi-chip collaboration) to allow computational tasks to be executed in parallel over time, trading architecture for performance.
To put it simply: Moore's Law is like widening a lane — the wider the road, the faster the cars can go; the Tao Law is like building overpasses and smart traffic lights — if the lanes can't be widened, let the traffic flow more efficiently. The former relies on physics, while the latter relies on design.
This explains why the semiconductor sector is so exuberant today: the market is not speculating on a concept but pricing a shift in logical paradigms. In the past, investing in semiconductors was primarily about &#34;who has the more advanced process&#34;; in the future, it will also include &#34;who designs more intelligently.&#34; The competitive dimension of domestic chips has shifted from singular to composite.
Within this framework, two directions are worth long-term tracking:
One is the semiconductor equipment ETF from China Merchants (561980). Whether under Moore's Law or the Tao Law, chips still need to be made, and equipment is an unavoidable &#34;shovel seller.&#34; Domestic storage leaders are expanding production, and logic chip upgrades are ongoing, leading to a continuous influx of equipment orders. This ETF surged over 7% today, marking the 20th historical high this year, with strong demand from investors.
The other is the consumer electronics ETF from China Merchants (159779). The design innovations of the Tao Law ultimately need to be realized in end products — AI smartphones, AI glasses, AI servers. The surge in PCB value, rising prices of storage chips, and a wave of terminal upgrades are all part of this chain. This ETF covers core segments such as PCBs, optics, and components, making it a convenient tool for capturing innovations in AI terminals.
Two main lines, one logic: the semiconductor industry is entering a new era driven by &#34;design + manufacturing.&#34; Understanding this shift also clarifies the essence of today's market rotation of &#34;PCBs in the morning, Tao Law in the afternoon.&#34;

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Moore's Law is gradually losing its effectiveness, and Huawei has proposed the "Tao Law," emphasizing the enhancement of semiconductor performance through design innovation rather than reducing transistor size. The market has reacted enthusiastically to the semiconductor sector, with investors focusing on the performance of semiconductor equipment ETFs and consumer electronics ETFs, the former surging over 7% due to increased equipment orders

同壁财经

GTJA Allianz SSE STAR Chip Design Thematic ETF

Invesco Semiconductors ETF

VanEck Vectors Semiconductor UCITS ETF Accum A USD

Penghua SSE STAR Semiconductor Material & Equipment Thematic ETF

E Fund CSI Semiconductor Material & Equipment Thematic ETF

ChinaAMC CSI Semiconductor Material & Equipment Thematic ETF

Direxion Semicon Bull 3X

Guotai CSI Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme ETF

E Fund CSI Consumer Electronic Theme ETF

GTJA Allianz CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment ETF

ChinaAMC Guozheng Consumer Electronic Theme ETF

Guotai CES Semiconductor Chip Industry ETF

GF Fund CSI Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme ETF

Guotai CSI All Share Integrated Circuit ETF

ChinaAMC SSE STAR Semiconductor Material & Equipment Thematic ETF

Harvest CSI All Share Integrated Circuit ETF

Ping An CSI Consumer Electronic Theme ETF

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Harvest SSE STAR Chip ETF

ChinaAMC Guozheng Semiconductor Chip ETF

SPDR S&P Semicon

Guotai CSI Consumer Electronic Theme ETF

iShares Semiconductor ETF

China Merchants CSI Semiconductor Industry ETF

China Merchants CSI Consumer Electronic Theme ETF

What is the transition from Moore's Law to Tao's Law? Netizens: Let's raise first as a sign of respect!