<div id="readability-page-1"><div><p>Morgan Stanley published a research report forecasting that MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)<span> </span><span> -5.200 (-6.692%)  </span> <span> Short selling $509.35M; Ratio 19.188%  </span> 's Core Local Commerce (CLC) segment will record an operating loss of RMB4.3 billion in 1Q26 and is expected to achieve breakeven in 2Q26. Among which, the instant delivery business is estimated to post an operating loss of RMB8.4 billion in 1Q26, narrowing to RMB4.4 billion in 2Q26. This implies that the unit economics (UE) per order for the food delivery business will be negative RMB1.3 in 1Q26 and negative RMB0.6 in 2Q26, reaching breakeven in 3Q26. After Alibaba committed to substantially narrowing losses in Quick Commerce, the visibility of MEITUAN-Ws path toward profitability has improved significantly. The broker believes faster-than-expected narrowing of food delivery losses would bring upside risk.</p><p>By segment, M Stanley expects the gross transaction value (GTV) and revenue of MEITUAN-Ws in-store, hotel and travel (IHT) business to grow 10% YoY and 9% YoY, respectively, in 1Q26. Operating profit is projected to remain broadly flat QoQ at RMB4.1 billion, with an operating margin of 25%. However, intensifying competition from Douyins local services, including the rebranding of Suixin Tuan to Douyin Instant Delivery and the launch of a standalone app, may pose downside risks to growth and margins of the in-store business. For new initiatives, the operating loss is estimated at RMB2.7 billion in 1Q26. Its overseas business KeeTa will focus on consolidating existing markets this year. With continued improvement in unit economics in Saudi Arabia and sustained profitability in Hong Kong, operating losses from new businesses in 2026 are expected not to exceed RMB10 billion in 2025.</p><p>Morgan Stanley maintained its earnings forecasts for MEITUAN-W and continues to assume that the food delivery business will achieve UE of RMB1 per order starting from 2027. Under its base-case scenario, the operating margin of the IHT segment will gradually recover from the current 25% to 30% by 2030. The broker maintained its Overweight rating on MEITUAN-W with TP kept unchanged at HKD120. (ad/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-27 16:25.)</p></div></div>

03690

<p>Morgan Stanley forecasts that MEITUAN-W will face an operating loss of RMB4.3 billion in 1Q26, with breakeven expected in 2Q26. The food delivery segment is projected to narrow losses significantly. Despite competition risks, the firm maintains an Overweight rating and a target price of HKD120, expecting gradual recovery in operating margins by 2030.</p>

- Morgan Stanley forecasts that MEITUAN-W will incur an operating loss of RMB4.3 billion in its Core Local Commerce segment for Q1 2026, improving to breakeven by Q2 2026.  
- The instant delivery business is expected to experience significant losses, but narrowing losses could enhance profitability visibility.  
- The broker maintains its Overweight rating on MEITUAN-W, expecting gradual improvement in margins, with a target price of HKD 120.

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M Stanley: MEITUAN-W  Profitability Roadmap Clear, Rating Overweight