The S&amp;P 500 rose today after US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative deal to extend their ceasefire and open formal talks on Tehran’s nuclear program.



Under the draft, the two sides would negotiate Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief and regional security, and Iran would clear all mines from the strait within 30 days, according to Axios. 



The proposed 60-day memorandum still needs President Donald Trump‘s signature and Tehran’s formal acceptance.



As negotiations progressed, US forces carried out fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.



<h2>Wall Street Buys It, Prediction Markets Don’t</h2>



The mood in equities stayed calm. The VIX touched 15.73, its lowest since January, while energy lagged a tech-led tape.



Prediction traders are not so relaxed about the deal itself. 



Polymarket gives the odds of a deal this month at 17%, up from 10% yesterday. A deal by June 30 sits at 41%, and one before 2027 at 76%.



<h2>Why A Final Deal Is Still Far Off</h2>



The mechanics are already a sticking point. Any deal would require Iran to dilute or ship abroad its roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, close to weapons grade, and Trump said Wednesday he “wouldn’t be comfortable” with Russia or China holding it.



At home, Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) , Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Roger Wicker (R-MS) say the emerging terms look too favorable to Tehran and too close to the Obama-era pact Trump once scrapped. Trump insists he will not be rushed, calling Iran “negotiating on fumes.”



<h2>The Hormuz Curve And Oil Tickers</h2>



Polymarket puts Hormuz traffic returning to normal at 38% by the end of June, 59% by July and 83% by December, with $10.4 million traded on the June contract.



Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) reversed earlier gains Thursday as Brent slid toward $94 from above $107 in mid-May, and the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) tracked the drop.



A signed extension could deepen the slide, though earlier signs of progress have collapsed within hours before.



Image: Shutterstock

On May 23, Trump dropped a market-moving line on social media: the US-Iran deal is "basically done," reportedly including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and he told US negotiators "no rush" to close it. Secretary of State Rubio hinted "good news could come within hours."A day later, Trump walked it back: the deal is "not fully there yet." Tehran stayed cautious, and Tasnim News warned that Washington is still putting up roadblocks on asset unfreezing and other key terms, leaving room for the draft to fall apart.One side: warmer political tone, signs of easier passage through Hormuz, oil and safe-haven flows already front-running the headline. Other side: core disagreements unresolved, the market unsure how much to price in. So which way are you leaning, real deal or another flip?

On May 23, Trump dropped a market-moving line on social media: the US-Iran deal is "basically done," reportedly including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and he told US negotiators "no rush" to close it. Secretary of State Rubio hinted "good news could come within hours."A day later, Trump walked it back: the deal is "not fully there yet." Tehran stayed cautious, and Tasnim News warned that Washington is still putting up roadblocks on asset unfreezing and other key terms, leaving room for the draft to fall apart.One side: warmer political tone, signs of easier passage through Hormuz, oil and safe-haven flows already front-running the headline. Other side: core disagreements unresolved, the market unsure how much to price in. So which way are you leaning, real deal or another flip?

US-Iran Deal Flips In 24h: Real Or Noise?

XOMX

The S&P 500 rose as the US and Iran reached a tentative deal to extend their ceasefire and discuss Iran's nuclear program. The 60-day memorandum requires President Trump's signature and Tehran's acceptance. However, prediction markets remain skeptical about the deal's success, with low odds for a final agreement. Concerns persist over Iran's enriched uranium and the deal's perceived favorability towards Tehran, echoing past agreements. Oil prices are affected, with major companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron experiencing declines.

- The S&P 500 rose after US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative ceasefire agreement and will discuss Iran’s nuclear program.  
- The proposed 60-day memorandum requires President Trump’s signature and Iran’s acceptance, amid ongoing US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.  
- Prediction markets remain skeptical about the deal’s viability, with key challenges including Iran’s enriched uranium stock and political opposition in the US.

benzinga_article

US, Iran Reportedly Agree To Extend Ceasefire 60 Days, Open Nuclear Talks—But Prediction Markets Are Skeptical