<p><strong>Firefly Aerospace Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:FLY) stock jumped more than 7% on Monday after <strong>KeyBanc Capital Markets</strong> upgraded the stock and pointed to significant upside tied to lunar exploration, national security programs and the expanding commercial space economy.</p>



<h2>KeyBanc Upgrade Fuels Rally</h2>



<p>KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded shares of Firefly Aerospace to Overweight from Sector Weight and initiated a $50 price forecast, citing accelerating growth opportunities tied to NASA's lunar ambitions, national security spending and the broader expansion of the commercial space economy.</p>



<p>Analyst <strong>Michael Leshock</strong> said the recent selloff across space stocks following<strong> SpaceX’s IPO</strong> created an attractive entry point for investors. He argued that the long-term drivers behind the sector remain intact, including rising satellite demand, constrained launch capacity, growing defense budgets and increased NASA activity.</p>



<h2>Lunar Programs Drive Growth Outlook</h2>



<p>KeyBanc highlighted Firefly's position as one of the leading commercial space companies supporting NASA's lunar initiatives. The firm pointed to the company's Blue Ghost lunar lander, which it described as the only commercial lander to achieve a fully successful Moon landing, and said future lunar missions could provide meaningful upside as NASA expands its Commercial Lunar Payload Services program.</p>



<p>The brokerage also raised its revenue estimates for Firefly after the company secured a $75 million MoonFall NASA contract, which KeyBanc said underscores the value of its Elytra spacecraft platform. The firm now forecasts 2026 revenue of about $445 million and 2027 revenue of roughly $746 million.</p>



<p>Beyond lunar exploration, KeyBanc sees additional growth potential from Firefly's launch business and its SciTec missile-tracking software unit. The analyst said SciTec is well positioned to benefit from increasing Pentagon demand for space-based defense and missile-tracking capabilities.</p>



<h2>Valuation And Sector View</h2>



<p>KeyBanc said Firefly trades at about 6.5 times its projected 2027 sales, near the low end of its peer group range of 5 times to 15 times. The firm believes that valuation does not fully reflect the company's exposure to NASA's accelerated lunar programs and its long-term launch opportunities.</p>



<p><strong>FLY Stock Price Activity:</strong> Firefly Aerospace shares were up 7.22% at $34.17 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.</p>



<p><em>Photo via Shutterstock </em></p>



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FLYT

<p>Firefly Aerospace (FLY) stock surged over 7% following a KeyBanc Capital Markets upgrade to Overweight with a $50 price target. The brokerage cited significant upside driven by NASA's lunar initiatives, national security programs, and the expanding commercial space economy. Analysts highlighted the company's successful Blue Ghost lunar lander, new contracts, and strong revenue forecasts for 2026-2027 as key growth drivers.</p>

Why Is Firefly Aerospace Stock Soaring Monday?