US inflation continues to decline, with May CPI YoY growth at 4%, the lowest since March 2021, and lower than the expected value of 4.1% and the previous value of 4.9%; core CPI YoY growth at 5.3%, slightly higher than the expected 5.2%, but lower than the previous value of 5.5%, with a MoM increase of 0.4%.
The probability of the futures market announcing that the Fed will not raise interest rates on Wednesday has risen to nearly 100%, while the probability of predicting a rate hike yesterday was 25%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in July is still as high as 60%. Analysts believe that if core inflation remains too high, it may support continued rate hikes.
The probability of staying put in June is close to 100%, and the probability of a rate cut this year has dropped to &#34;impossible to happen.&#34;
Economists still disagree on whether the Fed can raise interest rates in July. Some believe that if the trend of cooling inflation continues, there may be no more rate hikes this year. However, &#34;New Fed Communications&#34; and financial journalist Nick Timiraos stated that the impact of May CPI on changing short-term prospects is not significant, and the Fed may use an upward adjustment of the dot plot rate expectation and quarterly inflation forecast to imply that &#34;raising interest rates again is now the basic scenario.&#34;
The UK's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in April, and wages grew at the fastest pace in twenty years. Hot employment data suggests that inflation stickiness is far beyond expectations, and the Bank of England will restart the market speculation of violent rate hikes next Thursday. The two-year UK bond yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, soared by more than 26 basis points to a fifteen-year high, and traders believe that the possibility of raising interest rates to the peak of 6% has reached 50%.
The OPEC monthly report boosted oil prices, optimistic about China's economic recovery, and expected that Saudi Arabia's production cuts would bring a larger energy supply gap. Data shows that Russia's oil production fell by 100,000 barrels/day in April, and Saudi Arabia's oil production fell below the 10 million barrels/day mark in May, with OPEC cutting production by 460,000 barrels/day that month.
<h2>S&amp;P and Nasdaq hit their highest level since April last year, Tesla rose for 13 consecutive days, Nvidia hit a new high, and the Chinese concept stock index rose more than 2%</h2>
On Tuesday, June 13th, the YoY growth rate of US CPI inflation in May hit a new two-year low, and the swap market lowered the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in June. US stocks opened high, with technology stocks leading the way. The Nasdaq rose more than 100 points at the opening, and the Dow rose by more than 240 points at its highest.
One hour after the opening, the Dow's gains were cut in half, and the gains of the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500 index were significantly narrowed. The Nasdaq 100 wiped out a 1% gain and turned negative. At noon, the gains of US stocks expanded again, with the Russell small-cap stocks leading the way, rising more than 1% throughout the day, and the Nasdaq 100 almost recovering all its losses.
As of the close, the S&amp;P, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all rose for four consecutive days, reaching their highest levels in over a year since April last year. The Dow rose for six consecutive days, reaching a new high in four months since February 13th, and the Russell small-cap stock index reached a three-month high:
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The S&amp;P 500 index rose 30.08 points, or 0.69%, to 4,369.01. The Dow rose 145.79 points, or 0.43%, to 34,212.12. The Nasdaq rose 111.40 points, or 0.83%, to 13,573.32. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%, and the Russell 2000 index rose 1.2%.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/374e8758-0e9d-4a95-a6ea-ea84d29c32ed.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/374e8758-0e9d-4a95-a6ea-ea84d29c32ed.jpeg"/> S&amp;P and Nasdaq hit new highs since April last year, Dow hits new high in four months
The S&amp;P's 11 sectors generally rose, with raw materials up 2.3%, industry up 1.2%, optional consumption up 1%, information technology/technology up 0.7%, energy up 0.5%, telecommunications up 0.3%, and utilities down 0.07%, the only sector to fall.
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Star tech stocks rose across the board, but Apple fell 0.3% from its historic closing high. &#34;Metaverse&#34; Meta rose 0.1%, and Microsoft rose 0.7%, both to their highest levels in a week and a half. Amazon fell 1% before rebounding to its highest level in nine months. Google A rose 0.2%, and Netflix rose nearly 3% to its highest level in 17 months. Tesla rose 3.6%, rising for 13 consecutive days to its highest level in eight months, with a cumulative increase of 41% on the 13th, the longest consecutive increase since the 2010 US IPO.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/93fb93dd-621c-4820-aa05-d17db2666fc9.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/93fb93dd-621c-4820-aa05-d17db2666fc9.jpeg"/> Tesla rose for 13 consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 41% during the period
Most chip stocks rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which rose more than 3% yesterday, rose more than 1% again, reaching its highest level in 17 months since January last year. AMD fell 3.6%, breaking away from its 17-month high; Nvidia rose nearly 4% to a historic high, with a market value of over $1 trillion; Intel rose 2.5% to a ten-month high; Broadcom fell from its historic high; TSMC's US stock rose more than 3% before turning down, losing its highest level in over 15 months.
On the news front, Tesla's energy storage super factory project will officially land in Shanghai in April this year. The company said that the energy storage business maintains a compound annual growth rate of over 65%, and the Megapack produced by the factory will be supplied to the global market. SoftBank's stock price jumped, and Intel discussed investing in Arm IPO. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs rated Netflix as &#34;buy&#34; and raised their target prices to about $500. UBS downgraded Apple's rating to &#34;neutral&#34; and worried that iPhone demand would continue to face pressure even with support from emerging markets. &#34;Queen of the Bull Market&#34; Cathie Wood sold 393,000 shares of Tesla and 20,100 shares of Nvidia on Monday, selling Tesla to cash out nearly $100 million.
Buy Meta and TSMC.
Despite the increasing regulatory pressure, AI concept stocks continue to rebound. C3.ai rose more than 14%, approaching the highest level since November 2021. BigBear.ai rose nearly 13%, reaching the highest level in over two weeks. However, SoundHound.ai fell 6% and closed down more than 1%, losing the highest level in two months.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3e34b268-9f66-4901-825f-66dac3bc5a51.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3e34b268-9f66-4901-825f-66dac3bc5a51.jpeg"/> C3.ai rose more than 14%, approaching the highest level since November 2021.
Popular Chinese concept stocks outperformed. Chinese ETFs KWEB and CQQQ rose more than 2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose more than 4% in early trading and closed up more than 2% to an eight-week high. Among the Nasdaq 100 component stocks, JD.com rose 3.5%, Pinduoduo rose more than 5% and closed up nearly 2%, and Baidu rose more than 6%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba and Tencent ADR rose about 2%, Bilibili rose 3.6%, NIO rose nearly 6%, Xiaopeng Motors rose more than 4%, and Ideal Motors rose nearly 3% before closing up 1%. The company said it is confident of achieving total sales exceeding BBA by 2024.
Bank stocks stopped falling for three consecutive days and rebounded from a one-week low. The industry benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index (BKX) rose 1.5%, hitting the lowest level since October 2020 on May 4. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index (KRX) rose 2.4%, hitting the lowest level since November 2020 on May 11; the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) rose 2.3%, hitting the lowest level since October 2020 on May 4.
The &#34;Big Four&#34; banks in the United States rose by about 1%, and Wells Fargo Bank rose 2% to lead the way. Among the key regional banks, PacWest Bancorp rose 3.6% and then fell more than 1%, eventually closing up 0.8%; Western Alliance Bancorp rose 5%, and Zions Bancorporation fell nearly 7% at one point, while First Horizon rose nearly 3%.
On the news front, JPMorgan downgraded First Horizon from &#34;buy&#34; to &#34;neutral&#34;. The stock fell 2% at the opening, and it is expected that the cost growth rate will remain high in the next two years and the deposit cost will rise, and the recent prospects are uncertain. Zions Bancorporation downgraded its net interest income outlook from &#34;moderately declining&#34; to &#34;declining.&#34;
Other stocks with significant changes include:
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Manchester United rose nearly 14%, the largest increase since November 23 last year. It rose more than 30% before the market opened. It was reported that a Qatari consortium has completed its acquisition of the club, and an official announcement is expected soon.
Oracle opened 6.4% higher, hitting a new high in the next day's trading after the financial report. The fourth quarter revenue and profit exceeded expectations, and the AI boom drove a 20% increase in overall cloud performance, with cloud infrastructure revenue soaring 76%. The guidance for the next quarter is positive, and the stock rose 0.2% to a new all-time high.
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The &#34;retail investor holding stock&#34; game station rose nearly 11% to a half-year high. Chairman Ryan Cohen disclosed on Monday that he had purchased an additional 443,800 shares of the company's stock, worth about $10.8 million.
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European stocks rose across the board, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index up 0.55% to a three-week high, led by a 2.7% rise in mining stocks and a 1.5% rise in technology stocks. The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.7%, and oil prices drove the Russian MOEX index up by about 1.8%, with the German stock market leading major national indices.
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<h2>US bond yields rebounded sharply by more than two digits from the daily low, with the two-year UK bond yield rising more than 26 basis points to a 15-year high</h2>
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The 10-year US bond yield reversed its decline after the release of CPI data, rising in US stock trading and reaching a high of more than 8 basis points, breaking through 3.80% and rebounding more than 17 basis points from the daily low, approaching a three-month high.
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The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose the most, up 15 basis points, rebounding 26 basis points from the daily low to 4.71%, the highest in three months since March 10, and had fallen below 4.50% after the CPI was released.
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<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bda7de98-df8f-47c3-9abe-b5762473b26a.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bda7de98-df8f-47c3-9abe-b5762473b26a.jpeg"/> US bond yields rebounded sharply by more than two digits from the daily low to a three-month high
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Bank of England Governor Bailey said that more inflation persistence has been considered in the model, and inflation will fall but will take longer. The two-year UK bond yield soared more than 26 basis points to 4.901%, the largest increase since September last year and the highest since July 2008. The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose 11 basis points to approach 4.45%, the highest in eight months, and the key curve inversion was the deepest since September 2000.
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European bond yields rebounded again in a V-shaped pattern, with the 10-year German bond yield, the Eurozone benchmark, rising 3.5 basis points to 2.42% at the end of the day, close to the daily high. After the US CPI data was released, it had fallen to a daily low of 2.34% and the two-year yield had risen 6 basis points to 2.97%, approaching the daily high of 2.99% and also approaching the near three-month high of 3% set last week after the CPI was released.
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<h2>Oil prices rose 4% in intraday trading, with US oil approaching $70 and Brent oil rising from its lowest level since December 2021, while European natural gas rose nearly 19%</h2>
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OPEC's monthly report supported international oil prices to rise by more than 3%. WTI crude oil futures for July closed up $2.30, or 3.42%, at $69.42 a barrel. Brent crude futures for August closed up $2.45, or 3.41%, at $74.29 a barrel.
US oil WTI rose by a maximum of $2.69 or 4%, returning to $69 and approaching $70. Brent rose by more than $3 or 4.2%, returning to $74 and attempting to approach $75, both recovering most of yesterday's losses and ending a three-day losing streak.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/d9446d20-c55f-4b4b-b9f9-0b283b94d787.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/d9446d20-c55f-4b4b-b9f9-0b283b94d787.jpeg"/> Oil prices rose 4% during the day, with Brent oil breaking away from its lowest level since December 2021.
On Monday, both oil prices fell by about $3 or 4%, with US oil hitting a new low in nearly three months since March 17, and Brent oil closing below $72 and hitting its lowest level since December 2021, when the market was worried about increased supply from Russia and Iran and weak demand.
ICE UK natural gas futures rose by more than 22% at one point, and the closing price rose by nearly 20% and broke through 90 pence/calorie. The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures rose by nearly 19% and hovered near the daily high, returning to above 30 euros/megawatt-hour.
This is mainly due to the intensification of supply concerns, with the shutdown of Norway's three major natural gas processing plants and gas fields further extended to mid-July, and the deterioration of the power outage problem in key natural gas facilities. US natural gas futures for July also rose more than 4%.
<h2>The US dollar refreshes its lowest level in more than three weeks and approaches 103, the pound reaches its highest level in a month, and offshore RMB falls below 7.17 yuan</h2>
The DXY, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, fell the most by 0.6% and approached the 103 mark, refreshing its lowest level in more than three weeks, mainly due to the expectation of the Fed's suspension of interest rate hikes in June under the trend of cooling inflation.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/cb1c0008-0ce5-484c-80d1-642ed43c74e0.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/cb1c0008-0ce5-484c-80d1-642ed43c74e0.jpeg"/> The US dollar index refreshes its lowest level in more than three weeks and approaches 103.
The euro rose the most against the US dollar by 0.6% and briefly broke through 1.08 to a three-week high. The pound rose nearly 120 points or 0.9% against the US dollar, breaking through 1.26 to a one-month high. The Canadian dollar rose to a four-month high against the US dollar. The yen against the US dollar fell below 140 to a new low for the month. Offshore RMB fell below 7.17 yuan, down nearly 220 points from the previous day's closing, refreshing its lowest level since the end of November last year.
Most mainstream cryptocurrencies rose. The largest market capitalization Bitcoin re-approached $26,000, which had hit its lowest level in over two months last Monday. The second largest Ethereum rose 0.5% and broke through $1,740, leaving its lowest level in over two months.
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Bitcoin, the leader of the currency circle, is back above $26,000.
<h2>Spot gold turned down, with intraday volatility of up to $30, London copper up nearly 2%, London nickel up nearly 6%, both hitting one-month highs.</h2>
The sharp rise in US bond yields has put pressure on gold prices. COMEX August gold futures fell 0.56% to $1,958.60 per ounce, while October futures fell 0.56% to $1,978.10 per ounce. Silver futures fell about 1%.
Spot gold rose after the release of CPI data, touching $1,970 per ounce at one point. US stocks fell during the day and fell by as much as 0.8%, approaching the integer level of $1,940, falling for three consecutive days, and almost wiping out all the gains since June 7.
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Spot gold turned down, with intraday volatility of up to $30.
London industrial metals rose across the board. London copper rose more than 1.8% or $150, breaking through $8,400 and returning to a one-month high. London zinc rose 1.4%, while lead, aluminum, and tin rose slightly. London nickel rose nearly $1,200 or nearly 6%, approaching $22,000 to a one-month high.

TSLA

NVDA

US May CPI YoY growth rate hit a more than two-year low. The market does not believe that the Fed will raise interest rates in June. Tech stocks led the way, with the Dow hitting a four-month high and small-cap stocks rising more than 1% to a three-month high. Tesla hit its longest streak of gains since going public, while Nvidia hit a new high and its market value returned to over a trillion dollars. The China concept stock index rose more than 2%, leading the way. Both the two-year and ten-year US Treasury yields rebounded by about 20 basis points from their daily lows, while the two-year UK bond yield rose more than 26 basis points to a fifteen-year high. Oil prices rose 4% during the day, while European natural gas rose nearly 19%. The US dollar hit a more than three-week low, and the offshore renminbi fell below 7.17 yuan. Spot gold turned lower with a daily fluctuation of $30. Copper rose nearly 2% and nickel rose nearly 6%, both hitting a one-month high.

Wallstreetcn

Tesla

NVIDIA

The S&P 500 hit a more than one-year high, with Tesla rising for the 13th consecutive day, while yields on European and American bonds soared by double digits.