Guo Mingchi: Huawei's smartphone shipments are expected to reach at least 60 million units in 2024, with Qualcomm being the main loser.

According to Dolphin Research, renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo recently shared an analysis report on Huawei's self-developed Kirin processors, stating that Qualcomm is the main loser in Huawei's adoption of the new Kirin chips. Kuo predicts that due to Huawei's adoption of the new Kirin processors, Qualcomm's shipments of SoCs to Chinese smartphone brands are expected to decrease by at least 50-60 million units in 2024 compared to 2023, and this downward trend will continue in the following years. Additionally, in order to maintain its market share in China, Qualcomm may initiate a price war as early as the fourth quarter of 2023. According to Kuo's analysis, Huawei purchased 23-25 million and 40-42 million smartphone SoCs from Qualcomm in 2022 and 2023 respectively. However, starting from 2024, Huawei's new models will fully adopt self-developed Kirin processors. Therefore, from 2024 onwards, Qualcomm will not only completely lose Huawei's orders but also face the risk of decreased shipments to non-Huawei Chinese brand customers due to competition from Huawei. Qualcomm faces two other potential risks: the market share of Exynos 2400 in Samsung smartphones exceeding expectations, and Apple's expected use of its own modem chips starting from 2025. Kuo mentioned that Apple has been secretly preparing for more than five years to launch its own 5G baseband, and in 2019, it acquired a major portion of Intel's smartphone modem business. Apple's self-developed 5G baseband may be used in the new iPhone SE, and if the tests go well, it may be used in the main iPhone models. Previously, Kuo released a report stating that the shipment forecast for Huawei Mate 60 Pro has significantly increased, and Huawei's influence on the industry and stock market is returning. Based on market trends, it is estimated that the cumulative shipments of Mate 60 Pro will reach at least 12 million units after 12 months of release. The report also predicts that due to the demand and market influence of Mate 60 Pro, Huawei's smartphone shipments in 2023 will increase by approximately 65% to 38 million units compared to the previous year. Looking ahead to 2024, Huawei's smartphone shipments are expected to reach at least 60 million units, making it the strongest growth driver among global smartphone brands.