According to mainstream media familiar with the central bank's thinking, it is certain that there will be no interest rate hike in September. With the improvement of inflation data, Federal Reserve officials also believe that the urgency of another rate hike this year has decreased, indicating a significant shift in policy thinking and boosting market risk sentiment.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in November, as speculated in the currency market, has decreased from 44% last Friday to 38%, indicating that the likelihood of another rate hike this year is less than 40%. Investors also believe that the probability of the European Central Bank raising interest rates on Thursday is less than 40%, with a 62% chance of no rate hike.
A series of economic data released last Monday, which were stronger than expected, once again raised concerns about the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates more than expected. On Wednesday and Thursday, the US CPI and PPI inflation data for August will be released, and it is expected that both will rebound due to pressure from energy costs, while US retail sales may decline.
The European Union has lowered its economic growth outlook for the eurozone for the next two years, and it is expected that Germany, the largest economy in the region, will fall into recession this year. UK wage growth data will be released on Tuesday, which may affect the monetary decision of the Bank of England next week, as several hawkish members have already voiced their opinions.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the media that he will seek to &#34;quietly exit&#34; the ultra-loose monetary policy and hinted that enough data will be available by the end of this year to determine whether negative interest rates can be ended. The Bank of Japan's shift to a hawkish stance has led to a rise in the yen and Japanese bank stocks, while Japanese bonds have declined.
<h2>US stocks rise for two consecutive days, Nasdaq up more than 1%, Tesla up 10%, XPeng up 6.5%, leading Chinese concept stocks, Alibaba down 1.5%</h2>
On Monday, September 11th, technology stocks led the rise in US stocks, with the Nasdaq rising more than 1% in the first 15 minutes of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 200 points at the opening, and the S&amp;P 500 Index reaching a high of 0.7%. The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.8%. At midday, the Dow Jones narrowed its gains significantly and approached breakeven.
In the end, US stocks rose for two consecutive days, with the S&amp;P and Nasdaq closing near their daily highs. The Dow Jones rose for three consecutive days, recovering all of last Tuesday's losses, while the S&amp;P 500 Index approached last Tuesday's decline and the Nasdaq recovered last Wednesday's decline and closed up more than 1%. The Russell 2000 Index, however, ended its four-day losing streak and rebounded from its two-week low:
<blockquote>
The S&amp;P 500 Index rose 29.97 points, or 0.67%, to close at 4487.46 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 87.13 points, or 0.25%, to close at 34663.72 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 156.37 points, or 1.14%, to close at 13917.89 points. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%, and the &#34;fear index&#34; VIX fell 0.29% to 13.80.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3b34497f-54ce-4d6a-805d-d4f03f447cf2.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3b34497f-54ce-4d6a-805d-d4f03f447cf2.jpeg"/> The S&amp;P and Nasdaq closed near their daily highs, while the Dow and small-cap stocks narrowed their gains during the trading session.
The S&amp;P 500 Index saw gains in all 11 sectors, with consumer discretionary up 2.8%, telecommunications services up 1.2%, information technology/tech up 0.5%, and the industrial sector down less than 0.1% and energy down 1.3%.
French Societe Generale Bank said it has postponed the expected time of the US economic recession to mid-2024, which was originally expected to occur in early next year. Bank of America believes that value stocks, high-risk stocks, and small-cap stocks will outperform, and the situation where large-cap stocks lead will come to an end.
</blockquote>
Tech giants' stocks rise together. &#34;Metaverse&#34; Meta rose more than 3%, Microsoft rose more than 1%, both reaching the highest level in a month and a half; Amazon rose 3.5% to a one-year high, Apple stopped falling and turned up 0.7%, further distancing itself from the two-week low; Netflix rose 0.6%, Google A stopped falling and turned up 0.4% to a 17-month high; Tesla rose 10% to a nearly two-month high.
Chip stocks rise and fall unevenly. After falling more than 1%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index turned up, ending a three-day decline and moving away from a two-week low. Intel rose 1.5% to the highest level since late July last year, AMD fell 3% and then closed down 0.7% to a two-week low, NVIDIA fell nearly 1%, falling for four consecutive days to a low of over three weeks. Qualcomm rose 4%.
Most AI concept stocks rise. C3.ai turned up 0.6% to break away from the lowest level in three and a half months; Palantir Technologies rose more than 4%, BigBear.ai opened high and then rose more than 2%, both reaching a high within the month, but SoundHound.ai fell more than 2% to a low of over three weeks.
On the news front:
<blockquote>
Apple will hold its autumn product launch on Tuesday, expected to launch the next generation of products such as iPhone 15 and smartwatches.
Reports indicate that Meta is developing the latest artificial intelligence system that rivals the performance of OpenAI's most advanced models. It will purchase more NVIDIA H100 chips and train new models based on its own infrastructure in early next year.
Morgan Stanley upgraded Tesla's rating to &#34;Buy&#34; and is optimistic that breakthroughs in autonomous driving software will increase its market value by another $500 billion, and its stock price, as an &#34;AI stock,&#34; can rise by more than 60%.
Qualcomm has extended its chip contract with Apple for three years and will supply Apple with 5G modems for smartphones before 2026. Its stock jumped more than 8% before the market opened. Apple acquired Intel's smartphone modem division in 2019 in an effort to get rid of Qualcomm chips.
</blockquote>
Popular Chinese concept stocks chase the rise of the US stock market, and initially outperformed strongly:
<blockquote>
ETFs KWEB and CQQQ both rose nearly 2%, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose 2.3% at the beginning of the trading session and then closed up 1.2%, breaking through 6,800 points and moving away from a two-week low.
Among the Nasdaq 100 constituents, JD.com fell 1.5%, Baidu and Pinduoduo rose about 2%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba fell 1.5%, Tencent ADR rose more than 2%, Bilibili rose 3.6%, NIO and Xpeng rose about 3%, and Xiaopeng Motors rose 6.6%.
After stepping down as CEO and Chairman of Alibaba Group, Zhang Yong also resigned as Chairman and CEO of Alibaba Cloud, completely withdrawing from Alibaba, where he had been for 16 years.
To the surprise of the market, some people are concerned that the change in management may delay Alibaba Cloud's independent listing.
</blockquote>
Regional bank stocks are pushing down to a two-week low, but the industry benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index (BKX) rose 0.3% and has risen for two consecutive days. On May 4th, it hit the lowest level since October 2020. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index (KRX) fell 0.6%, hitting the lowest level since November 2020 on May 11th; the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 0.2%, hitting the lowest level since October 2020 on May 4th.
Other stocks with significant changes include:
<blockquote>
Oracle's first-quarter licensing and hardware revenue, as well as its revenue guidance for the next quarter, were lower than expected, but it emphasized a 66% growth in cloud infrastructure revenue and said that the biggest challenge is to build data centers to meet demand. After-hours trading fell more than 9%.
J M Smucker, a US food and beverage product manufacturer, opened nearly 9% lower and closed down 7%, hitting a 13-and-a-half-month low. It will acquire food company Hostess Brands for $5.6 billion, and the latter's stock rose more than 19% to a historical high, close to the acquisition price per share.
US mainstream food delivery platform Doordash rose 2.6% at the beginning of trading and then halved its gains. Brokerage firm Jefferies raised its stock rating due to tail risks related to EBITDA.
Its competitor, Instacart, the largest online grocery delivery company in the United States, announced an IPO price range of $26 to $28, with a valuation of up to $9.3 billion. Analysts believe that it and Arm will jointly test the new stock market against a backdrop of high interest rates and high inflation.
US cannabis stocks generally rose as Germany plans to legalize cannabis. Canopy Growth rose more than 81%, Aurora Cannabis rose more than 72%, and the MJ ETF rose 18%, marking the largest single-day increase in 11 months.
</blockquote>
European stocks rose across the board, with the Italian stock index leading major country indices with a 1% increase. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.34%, breaking the record for the longest seven-day consecutive decline since February 2018 just last Friday. Resource stocks such as Anglo American and Rio Tinto led the market.
Luxury stocks in Europe also rebounded slightly, having evaporated $180 billion since the peak in July, with LVMH, the parent company of LV, leading the way. At the same time, the Italian bank index rose more than 2%, and the Russian MOEX index fell about 4.7% in five days.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/e8f12ece-7c10-4699-8fb9-1eb617a6d96e.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/e8f12ece-7c10-4699-8fb9-1eb617a6d96e.jpeg"/>
<h2>Long-term bond yields in Europe and the United States have risen more, and the two-year US bond yield is approaching 5%, the highest in nine and a half years in Japan.</h2>
US Treasury yields rose slightly in early US stock trading, with longer-term yields seeing larger gains. The US Treasury Department auctioned $44 billion in three-year government bonds, with a bid rate of 4.660%, the highest since 2007, and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.75, weaker than the previous ratio of 2.90.
The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, attempted to break through the 5% level during the European stock market session, but fell back to less than 4.98% during the midday US stock market session. The yield on 10-year benchmark bonds rose by a maximum of 5 basis points and briefly exceeded 4.30%, returning to last Thursday's level.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/22546e13-5051-442a-9976-c66dd52e4af0.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/22546e13-5051-442a-9976-c66dd52e4af0.jpeg"/> Yields on long-term bonds in Europe and the US rose, with the two-year US Treasury yield approaching 5%.
After news of the Bank of Japan's shift towards a hawkish stance, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to its highest level in nine and a half years since January 2014, driving up European bond yields.
The yield on 10-year German government bonds, the benchmark for the eurozone, rose by 3 basis points at the end of the day, while the two-year yield rose by 1.5 basis points. Yields on French, Italian, and Spanish benchmark bonds also rose by 3 to 5 basis points. Long-dated UK government bond yields showed significant increases.
<h2>Oil prices fell slightly but remained at a ten-month high, with Brent briefly surpassing $91 per barrel and European natural gas rising 5%</h2>
International oil prices fluctuated slightly between gains and losses, remaining at a ten-month high. WTI October crude oil futures fell by $0.22, or 0.25%, to $87.29 per barrel. Brent November futures fell by $0.01, or 0.01%, to $90.64 per barrel.
US crude oil WTI briefly rose 0.7% to a new intraday high since mid-November last year during US stock market trading, but then fell slightly and dropped below $88. During the Asian trading session, it briefly fell below $87 and dropped nearly 1%. Brent briefly rose 0.9% and surpassed $91, also reaching the highest level since November last year.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/006616d2-7188-4db3-a5bd-cf11f7fba707.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/006616d2-7188-4db3-a5bd-cf11f7fba707.jpeg"/> Oil prices fell slightly but remained at a ten-month high.
Oil prices had risen for two consecutive weeks, boosted last week by the news that Saudi Arabia and Russia would extend voluntary supply restrictions totaling 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of this year. Analysts believe that if this week's monthly reports from the International Energy Agency and OPEC reveal signs of strong demand, it will push oil prices higher again.
The TTF Dutch natural gas, the European benchmark, rose by 5% at the end of the day, while ICE UK natural gas rose by 6.7%. Last Friday, workers at two LNG terminals operated by oil giant Chevron in Australia went on strike, causing a sharp jump in European natural gas prices of over 10% on that day.
<h2>The US dollar's multi-day rally halted, and the yen surged by 1%, while the offshore renminbi briefly surpassed 7.30 yuan and rebounded by nearly 670 points</h2>
Before the release of key inflation data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell sharply by 0.6% to around 104.40, ending its consecutive days of gains and breaking away from the six-month intraday high set last Thursday. It gave back nearly half of the gains since last Tuesday, after eight weeks of consecutive increases.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/633d746f-2f4a-444e-8b48-3fc30dd239d5.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/633d746f-2f4a-444e-8b48-3fc30dd239d5.jpeg"/>
The US dollar experienced its second largest daily decline since February.
The euro rose by 0.5% against the US dollar, surpassing the 1.07 level, while the pound rose by 0.4% and climbed above 1.25, both moving away from their three-month lows. The Japanese yen saw the highest increase of 1.3% against the US dollar, breaking through the 147 and 146 levels consecutively, reaching its highest level since September 1st, and previously hitting a ten-month low last week.
The offshore Chinese yuan briefly rose above 7.30 against the US dollar, an increase of nearly 670 points from the previous day's closing price. During the US stock market session, it rose more than 540 points and hovered around the 7.30 level, reaching a one-week high. Onshore, the Chinese yuan rebounded by more than 500 points from its sixteen-year low.
Mainstream cryptocurrencies experienced a general decline. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell by more than 2% and temporarily dropped below the $25,000 level for the first time since June, hitting a three-month low. The second largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, fell by more than 3% and approached $1,560, reaching a six-month low.
Last Friday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stated that it was necessary to appeal the milestone court ruling on Ripple in July. According to Coin Metrics, Ripple fell by 5% on Monday, and other digital currencies such as Polygon, Polkadot, Binance Coin, Solana's SOL token, and Litecoin, which the SEC deemed as securities, all fell by more than 2%.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/b31b273b-d13f-4f94-95fc-a584e949a533.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/b31b273b-d13f-4f94-95fc-a584e949a533.jpeg"/>
Bitcoin erased the gains it made since mid-June when BlackRock applied for a spot Bitcoin ETF.
<h2>Spot gold stabilizes at $1,920 and copper rises by about 2%, moving away from a three-week low, while zinc rises by nearly 3%</h2>
Gold futures rose for two consecutive days, with COMEX December gold futures closing up 0.23% at $1,947.20 per ounce, and silver futures rising by nearly 1%. Last week, due to the strong rise in the US dollar and US bond yields, New York gold futures fell by more than 1.2%, and New York silver futures fell by more than 5.5%.
Spot gold briefly rose by 0.6% to $1,930, while during the US stock market session, it narrowed its gains and traded at $1,922, hovering at a one-week high. Silver saw its first increase since August 29th.
Some analysts believe that concerns about Germany's recession and the slowdown in the European economy have brought about some safe-haven buying. If the US economy avoids a recession, the medium-term outlook for gold appears to be more challenging.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8bd98eef-9f3c-4701-8fb6-a4cae31cb9fa.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8bd98eef-9f3c-4701-8fb6-a4cae31cb9fa.jpeg"/>
The spot gold remains steady around $1920, hovering at a one-week high.
Positive data from China and the strengthening of the Renminbi have led to a general rise in London industrial metals. The economic indicator, &#34;Dr. Copper,&#34; rose $160 or 1.9% and broke through $8400, surpassing the three-week low of $8213 set last Friday.
London aluminum rose 1% and surpassed $2200, reaching a one-week high. London zinc rose 2.7% and broke through $2500, reaching a six-week high. London lead rose 1% to a monthly high. London nickel rose over 2% and stabilized above $20,000, moving away from the three-week low. London tin rose 0.9%, moving away from the monthly low.
In addition, most domestic futures closed higher during the night session, with coking coal rising over 4.5%, coke rising by approximately 3.1%, glass and synthetic rubber rising by 2.4%, and iron ore rising by 1.6%. Chicago wheat futures fell by 2%, as investors are concerned about the demand outlook.

TSLA

According to reports, the urgency of interest rate hikes within the year has been lowered by Federal Reserve officials. Technology stocks led the rebound in risk assets, with US stocks rising for two consecutive days. Amazon, Google, and Intel reached new highs for the year, while Xiaopeng Motors rose 6.5% and led the Chinese concept stocks, but Alibaba fell 1.5%. The US dollar experienced its second largest single-day decline since February, and the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance caused the yen to briefly rise above 146. Offshore renminbi reached a new high above 7.30 yuan, and Bitcoin fell below $25,000 for the first time since June. The yield on long-term bonds in Europe and the US increased even more, with the two-year US Treasury yield approaching 5% and the yield on Japanese government bonds reaching a nine-and-a-half-year high. Oil prices hovered near a ten-month high, while London copper rose by about 2% and moved away from a three-week low.

The Nasdaq rose more than 1%, Tesla surged 10%, the yen soared 1%, and offshore renminbi jumped a staggering 670 points.