Market awaits the release of US August CPI and PPI inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday, which is expected to impact the monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve. Currently, the expectation of no rate hike in September is a done deal, while the bet on a 25 basis point rate hike in November hovers around 36%.
Apple's iPhone 15 series bids farewell to the notch and Lightning port. The highest-end Pro Max sees a price increase but with expanded memory. The smartwatch gets a chip upgrade, and the AirPods Pro charging case switches to a USB-C port. All of these changes align with the rumors, and the stock price decline widens to 2.5%.
The White House announces that eight companies, including NVIDIA, Adobe, IBM, Palantir, and Salesforce, voluntarily commit to managing AI risks, including conducting security tests before deployment and adding digital watermarks to AI-generated content.
Ahead of the European Central Bank's interest rate decision on Thursday, traders slightly raise the possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike in September to 50%, and the market's expectation of another rate hike before the end of the year, which would be the last one in the cycle, also increases.
According to media reports, the European Central Bank will lower its economic growth forecast for the eurozone for the next two years and maintain its inflation forecast for 2024 above 3%, still exceeding the official target of 2%.
<h2>Nasdaq falls 1%, Dow turns lower in the final hour, large-cap tech stocks decline by about 2%, and Chinese concept stocks rise 1.2% before a slight drop, while Oracle falls 13%.</h2>
The market reignites the fear that rising oil prices will push up inflation. On Tuesday, September 12, US stocks opened lower and continued to decline, reaching the daily low at midday. The Dow fell more than 100 points, and the S&amp;P 500 fell 0.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, which rose more than 1% yesterday, fell 0.9%.
At midday, the Dow turned higher by nearly 190 points, mainly driven by a 2% increase in component stock Chevron, while Microsoft and Apple were among the worst-performing stocks. Other indices narrowed their losses, with the Russell small-cap index rising 0.3% and hitting a daily high after midday along with the Dow.
In the end, US stocks fell across the board except for small-cap stocks. The S&amp;P and Nasdaq halted their two-day rally and closed near the daily low, with the Nasdaq falling 1%; the Dow halted its three-day rally but still recovered from the decline since last Tuesday, while the Russell small-cap stocks rose for the second consecutive day after a four-day decline, breaking away from the two-week low:
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The S&amp;P 500 fell 25.56 points, or 0.57%, to 4,461.90. The Dow fell 17.73 points, or 0.05%, to 34,645.99. The Nasdaq fell 144.28 points, or 1.04%, to 13,773.61. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks rose 0.01%. The &#34;fear index&#34; VIX rose 3.12% to 14.23.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/151cabf0-e277-4355-a9d6-52d3c411ee9d.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/151cabf0-e277-4355-a9d6-52d3c411ee9d.jpeg"/> Major US stock indices all closed below the 50-day moving average, while small-cap stocks fell below the 100-day moving average.
Standard &amp; Poor's 11 sectors fell across the board, with the information technology/tech sector down 1.8%, telecommunications services and consumer discretionary down about 1%, and the financial sector up nearly 1%, while the energy sector rose more than 2% in line with higher oil prices.
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Tech giants fell across the board. &#34;Metaverse&#34; companies Meta and Microsoft both fell nearly 2%, both dropping from their highest levels in a month and a half; Amazon and Google A fell more than 1%, both dropping from their highest levels in over a year; Apple fell 1.7% to a three-week low; Netflix fell 2.4% to its lowest level this month; Tesla, which rose 10% yesterday, fell more than 2%, dropping from its highest level in nearly two months.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bea15ee5-0a8d-40f1-9977-a8338cb39c07.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bea15ee5-0a8d-40f1-9977-a8338cb39c07.jpeg"/> Apple fell 1.7% to a three-week low.
Chip stocks were mixed. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index briefly fell 0.8% during the day, recovering from several days of decline and returning to a two-week low. Intel rose 0.7% to its highest level since July last year, AMD rose more than 1% before falling slightly, hitting a two-week low, and Nvidia fell 0.7% at the end of the day, falling for five consecutive days to a nearly four-week low. TSMC's US stocks rose 1% and moved away from their lowest level in nearly four months.
AI concept stocks fell at the end of the day. C3.ai fell 0.4%, approaching a three-and-a-half-month low; Palantir Technologies fell more than 1%, BigBear.ai also fell more than 1%, still hovering near a monthly high; SoundHound.ai's gains narrowed significantly to 0.4%, not far from a three-week low.
In terms of news:
<blockquote>
Guo Mingchi of TF International Securities said it is unlikely that there will be a new iPad before the end of the year. UBS was the first to lower its shipment forecast for the iPhone 15, stating that due to the risk of new Huawei phones, the shipment forecast for the Apple iPhone 15 series was lowered from 80-90 million units to 78 million units.
The U.S. Department of Justice said that Google, a subsidiary of Alphabet, spends over $10 billion a year to maintain its monopoly position in the search engine and mobile device markets, which is stifling market competition.
Nvidia's GH200 Grace Hopper super chip, which was launched less than two months ago, made its first appearance in AI performance benchmark tests, with GH200 outperforming the H100 GPU by 17% with higher memory bandwidth and larger memory capacity.
TSMC has approved an investment of no more than $100 million in ARM Holdings and will acquire a 10% stake in Austrian chip company IMS from Intel for no more than $432.8 million. TSMC's share price has also benefited from the extension of chip supply agreements between Qualcomm and Apple.
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Popular Chinese concept stocks followed the decline of the U.S. stock market, initially outperforming. ETF KWEB rose 1% before falling 0.1%, CQQQ edged up slightly, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose 1.2% at the beginning of the day before closing slightly lower, holding above 6,800 points and moving away from the two-week low set last Friday.
In the Nasdaq 100 constituents, JD.com fell 0.6%, Baidu rose 2% and then slightly fell, and Pinduoduo rose 1.5%. Among other stocks, Alibaba rose over 1% and then fell 0.5%, Tencent ADR rose 0.3%, Bilibili rose 0.4%, new energy vehicle stocks rose across the board, NIO rose over 2%, Li Auto rose nearly 3%, and XPeng rose nearly 1%.
Regional bank stocks rose nearly 1% to a one-week high. The industry benchmark, the KBW Bank Index (BKX) on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, rose 1.7%, marking a three-day consecutive increase to the highest level since September 1st. On May 4th, it hit the lowest level since October 2020. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) rose 0.8%, hitting the lowest level since November 2020 on May 11th. The SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose 0.8%, hitting the lowest level since October 2020 on May 4th.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/028ae015-ebe0-4ee0-bf81-4fc45a178326.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/028ae015-ebe0-4ee0-bf81-4fc45a178326.jpeg"/> Regional bank stocks rose nearly 1% to a one-week high.
The &#34;Big Four&#34; U.S. banks all rose over 1%, with Wells Fargo leading the way with a nearly 3% increase, and Morgan Stanley briefly rose over 3%, marking the largest increase in nearly two months. Some key regional banks saw even larger gains, with Western Alliance Bancorp rising over 2%, Zions Bancorporation rising nearly 7%, Keycorp rising 5%, and PacWest Bancorp rising 0.5%.
Other stocks with significant changes include:
<blockquote>
Oracle's second-quarter revenue and next-quarter revenue guidance fell short of expectations, falling 13.5%, marking the largest single-day decline since March 2002 and hitting a three-month low. Competitors in the cloud industry such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft all fell, but Microsoft announced on Thursday that it would update its partnership with Oracle.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/35adeb45-69b2-4d04-81ab-a88501712753.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/35adeb45-69b2-4d04-81ab-a88501712753.jpeg"/> Oracle's largest decline since March 2002
&#34;Vietnam's Tesla&#34; VinFast Auto initially fell nearly 7% and briefly fell below $16. The company registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and its shareholders will sell approximately 10.8 million shares. After midday, the stock rebounded by 4%.
U.S. paper and packaging giant WestRock agreed to merge with Europe's largest competitor, Smurfit Kappa, to form one of the world's largest packaging companies. WestRock rose over 7% at its highest point, but Smurfit Kappa's European shares fell nearly 10% to a two-month low.
According to insiders, due to strong investor interest, the IPO price of chip design company Arm in the US stock market this week may exceed $51 per share, with a final valuation potentially exceeding $54.5 billion. Nvidia, Apple, and TSMC will all participate in the &#34;new share subscription&#34;.
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European stocks showed mixed performance, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index closing down 0.18%. Last Friday, it broke the record for the longest seven-day consecutive decline since February 2018. Chemical stocks led the decline, down 1.5%, while automotive and telecommunications stocks rose 0.7%. The UK and Italy stock indices rose, and the Russian RTS index rose by more than 1.5%, while the German and French stock indices fell.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/32b9f17b-617d-4e8a-a12e-9d822ac889d4.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/32b9f17b-617d-4e8a-a12e-9d822ac889d4.jpeg"/>
<h2>2-Year US Treasury Yield Rises Above 5%, 10-Year Yield Falls in Late Trading but Remains Near Three-Week High</h2>
The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose more than 2 basis points, surpassing the 5% mark and recovering most of the decline since last Thursday. The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose more than 1 basis point to 4.30% during the day but fell 2 basis points in late trading, still hovering near a three-week high.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/90d1ec2e-ef61-42ab-be13-f6c4d4776881.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/90d1ec2e-ef61-42ab-be13-f6c4d4776881.jpeg"/> 2-Year US Treasury Yield Rises Above 5%, 10-Year Yield Falls in Late Trading
The 10-year benchmark German bond yield in the eurozone rose less than 1 basis point in late trading, while the 2-year yield rose 3 basis points. The benchmark bond yields of France, Italy, and Spain all rose less than 1 basis point, while the Greek benchmark bond yield, which will issue a large amount of debt next year, rose 5 basis points.
At the same time, both the 2-year and 10-year UK bond yields fell by about 5 basis points. In the three months leading up to July, there were more signs of cooling in the UK labor market, with an increase in the unemployment rate and wage growth in line with expectations. Some analysts predict that the September rate hike will be the last one.
<h2>Oil Prices Rise 2% to Reach Ten-Month High, US Oil Briefly Surpasses $89 per Barrel, Brent Crude Tops $92 per Barrel</h2>
Driven by tightening supply prospects, oil prices rose another 2% to reach the highest level in ten months since November last year. WTI October futures closed up $1.55, or 1.77%, at $88.84 per barrel. Brent November futures rose $1.42, or 1.56%, to $92.06 per barrel.
US WTI crude oil rose more than $2 or 2.4%, briefly surpassing $89 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose $1.74 or 1.9%, briefly surpassing $92 per barrel. Since November 11 last year, the closing price of WTI has never exceeded $90 per barrel.
Oil prices rose 2% to reach a ten-month high.
The latest OPEC monthly report maintains its strong oil demand growth expectations for the next two years, stating that despite rising interest rates, the resilience of major economies is better than expected. OPEC member country Libya has been hit by catastrophic flooding, leading to the closure of several oil export terminals over the weekend.
OPEC also stated that due to Saudi Arabia's extension of voluntary production cuts of 1 million barrels per day until the end of this year, the supply gap in the crude oil market will reach 3 million barrels per day. The U.S. Department of Energy has raised its expectations for Brent oil prices for the next two years by nearly $2.
However, Bank of America warns that as oil prices rise, the policy of the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes will face risks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also states that the world is in the &#34;end&#34; of the fossil fuel era.
The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas fell more than 4% at the close, while ICE UK natural gas fell 2%. Chevron workers at two LNG terminals in Australia have been on strike since last Friday, and the Australian Fair Work Commission has stated that the labor dispute case will be heard next Friday. U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 5%.
The U.S. dollar rose and then fell at the end of the day, while the Japanese yen fell below 147. The offshore renminbi approached a one-week high, and Bitcoin rose above $26,000.
Ahead of the release of key inflation data, the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which measures against six major currencies, rose 0.3% to 104.90. It had reached its highest level in six months last Thursday but experienced its largest decline since July 13 yesterday. However, U.S. stocks turned slightly lower at the end of the day.
The euro fell the most against the U.S. dollar, down 0.4% and approaching 1.07, moving away from a one-week high. The British pound fell the most against the U.S. dollar, down 0.4% and falling below 1.25 again. The Japanese yen fell 0.4% against the U.S. dollar, breaking below the 147 level. It had risen more than 1% yesterday, marking the largest increase since July 12 and briefly surpassing 146.
The offshore renminbi briefly fell below 7.31 against the U.S. dollar, dropping nearly 120 points from the previous day's close. The decline in U.S. stocks narrowed during the trading session, and it returned to the 7.30 level, hovering near a one-week high. Yesterday, it rebounded by a maximum of 670 points, marking the largest single-day increase in six months.
Mainstream cryptocurrencies rebounded collectively. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, rose more than 3% and surpassed $26,000, after falling below $25,000 for the first time in three months during yesterday's trading session. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, rose 2% and approached $1,560, moving away from its six-month low. However, the Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) warned that the cryptocurrency industry is rife with fraud and abuse of blockchain technology, implying the need for strengthened regulation.
Bitcoin rose more than 3% and broke through $26,000.
<h2>Spot gold once fell below $1,910, the lowest in nearly three weeks, and London nickel fell more than 2.7% below $20,000</h2>
The rebound of the US dollar halted the two-day consecutive rise of gold futures. COMEX December gold futures fell 0.62% to $1,935.10 per ounce, the lowest in three weeks since August 23. Silver futures, which rose nearly 1% yesterday, saw a slight increase.
Spot gold fell nearly $15 or 0.8%, falling below the $1,910 mark, the lowest in more than two weeks since August 25. Spot silver rose slightly, marking its first increase since August 29.
Some analysts believe that if US inflation data this week exceeds market expectations, people's bets on another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year may increase, which may not be favorable for short-term gold prices. However, the challenges facing the European economy will eventually bring about safe-haven buying.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/318b96e8-9473-443e-8260-af16164700ca.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/318b96e8-9473-443e-8260-af16164700ca.jpeg"/> Spot gold once fell below $1,910, the lowest in nearly three weeks.
The rise of the US dollar and the increase in LME inventory caused a general decline in London industrial metals. The economic barometer &#34;Dr. Copper&#34; fell slightly, breaking through the $8,400 mark. It rose 1.9% yesterday and broke away from the three-week low of $8,213 set last Friday. Data shows that copper inventories in LME registered warehouses have risen to the highest level since October last year, indicating short-term demand pressure.
London aluminum, which rose 1% yesterday, also fell slightly, falling below $2,200. London zinc, which rose 2.7% yesterday, fell more than 1% and fell below $2,500, moving away from its six-week high. London lead, which rose 1% yesterday, also fell more than 1%. London nickel, which rose more than 2% yesterday, fell more than 2.7%, falling below the psychological level of $20,000 and hitting a four-week low during trading. London tin fell 1% to return to its low for the month.

Market fears of "rising oil prices will push up inflation" reignited, causing the Dow to erase nearly 190 points of gains and turn negative. Apple's stock price extended its decline to 2.5% during the product launch event, while Oracle plummeted over 13%, marking its worst performance since March 2002. However, Intel reached a new high since July last year. The China concept index opened with a gain of over 1% but closed slightly lower, while stocks of new energy vehicles rose across the board. The two-year US Treasury yield rose above 5%, while the 10-year yield hovered near a three-week high. The US dollar rallied and then retreated towards the end of the session, the yen fell below 147 to its lowest level since November last year, offshore renminbi approached a one-week high, and Bitcoin rose above $26,000. Oil prices rose 2% during the session, with Brent crude surpassing $92, and gold hit a three-week low.

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The Nasdaq fell 1%, with large-cap tech stocks down about 2%. Oracle experienced its deepest plunge in over twenty years, while oil prices reached a ten-month high.