Oct 9 (Reuters) - GOLDMAN SACHS:
<ul>
<li>SAYS ATTACKS IN ISRAEL UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY IMMEDIATE LARGE EFFECT ON NEAR-TERM SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE AND NEAR-TERM OIL INVENTORIES</li>
<li>SAYS IT CONTINUES TO FORECAST THAT THE BRENT OIL PRICE RISES FROM $85/BBL AS OF FRIDAY TO $100/BBL BY JUNE 2024</li>
<li>SAYS THE ESCALATING CONFLICT IN GAZA REDUCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF A NEAR-TERM NORMALIZATION IN SAUDI-ISRAELI RELATIONS</li>
<li>CONTINUES TO ASSUME THAT SAUDI UNWINDS THE EXTRA 1MB/D PRODUCTION CUT, ANNOUNCED IN JUNE 2023 AND EXTENDED THROUGH DECEMBER 2023, ONLY GRADUALLY BY 2025Q1</li>
<li>STILL EXPECT SAUDI CRUDE PRODUCTION TO STAY FLAT AT 9MB/D THROUGH 2024Q1, AND THEN START RISING BY 0.25MB/D PER QUARTER IN THE REST OF 2024</li>
<li>THIS WEEKEND’S DEVELOPMENTS REDUCE THE PROBABILITY OF AN EARLY UNWIND OF THE SAUDI PRODUCTION CUTS</li>
<li>SAYS A HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO WHERE SAUDI CRUDE PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT AT 9MB/D IN 2024—A SCENARIO WHICH NOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN BEFORE THE WEEKEND— WOULD RAISE OUR DECEMBER 2024 BRENT PRICE FORECAST TO $104/BBL</li>
<li>SAYS A SCENARIO WHERE SAUDI CRUDE PRODUCTION RISES BY 1MB/D TO 10MB/D IN JANUARY 2024—WHICH WOULD LOWER OUR DECEMBER 2024 BRENT PRICE FORECAST BY $8/BBL TO $92/BBL—NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN BEFORE</li>
<li>WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BROADER REGIONAL TENSIONS RE-ESCALATING, RISKS TO IRANIAN PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS ARE NOW TILTED TO THE DOWNSIDE</li>
<li>ANY 100KB/D DECLINE IN IRAN 2024 PRODUCTION RELATIVE TO THE BASELINE WOULD MECHANICALLY RAISE THE END-2024 BRENT OIL PRICE BY JUST OVER $1/BBL</li>
</ul>

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Goldman: Israel Attacks Unlikely To Have Any Immediate Large Effect on Oil Supply-Demand