as in terms of benefits human in the long term these are just short term noice
On Oct 8, 2026 SGT, the Financial Times dropped a story that spooked the entire AI complex: $OpenAI(OpenAI.NA) told investors its annualized revenue run-rate (ARR) was “approaching $50B” as of end-Sep...
as in terms of benefits human in the long term these are just short term noice
On Oct 8, 2026 SGT, the Financial Times dropped a story that spooked the entire AI complex: $OpenAI(OpenAI.NA) told investors its annualized revenue run-rate (ARR) was “approaching $50B” as of end-Sep...
My View on the Market
Personally, I am slightly bearish on the market in the short term, especially going into Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
My main concern is that inflation is still relatively high, with PCE at 3.7%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. At the same time, markets are already dealing with elevated Treasury yields and uncertainty over whether the Fed could keep rates higher for longer.
I think there is a greater chance that Warsh sounds hawkish or remains deliberately vague, rather than giving the market the clear dovish signal investors are hoping for. Since he has moved away from traditional forward guidance, even a cautious speech could create significant volatility if investors interpret it as a signal that rate cuts are further away—or that rate hikes remain possible.
Therefore, my short-term view is:
🐻 Slightly Bearish
However, I don't think this means I am bearish on the U.S. market in the long term. I still believe companies and the broader economy can continue to grow, particularly with strong technology and AI investment.
For me, the Jackson Hole event is more of a short-term volatility risk than a reason to change my long-term investment strategy. If the market drops because of a hawkish Fed message, I would rather see it as a potential opportunity to accumulate quality assets at lower prices than panic-sell.
So overall:
short term: Bearish
Long term: 🐂 Bullish
PCE at 3.7% beat expectations unexpectedly, pushing the probability of no rate hike in September from 35% to 66%. Since Walsh took office, forward guidance has been scrapped and the dot plot abolished...
My View on the Market
Personally, I am slightly bearish on the market in the short term, especially going into Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
My main concern is that inflation is still relatively high, with PCE at 3.7%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. At the same time, markets are already dealing with elevated Treasury yields and uncertainty over whether the Fed could keep rates higher for longer.
I think there is a greater chance that Warsh sounds hawkish or remains deliberately vague, rather than giving the market the clear dovish signal investors are hoping for. Since he has moved away from traditional forward guidance, even a cautious speech could create significant volatility if investors interpret it as a signal that rate cuts are further away—or that rate hikes remain possible.
Therefore, my short-term view is:
🐻 Slightly Bearish
However, I don't think this means I am bearish on the U.S. market in the long term. I still believe companies and the broader economy can continue to grow, particularly with strong technology and AI investment.
For me, the Jackson Hole event is more of a short-term volatility risk than a reason to change my long-term investment strategy. If the market drops because of a hawkish Fed message, I would rather see it as a potential opportunity to accumulate quality assets at lower prices than panic-sell.
So overall:
short term: Bearish
Long term: 🐂 Bullish
PCE at 3.7% beat expectations unexpectedly, pushing the probability of no rate hike in September from 35% to 66%. Since Walsh took office, forward guidance has been scrapped and the dot plot abolished...
