HuTao

Xiao Gu's bearish list:

$PDD(PDD.US) always talks about long-termism, but it's been a year or two already, and I haven't seen any moat being dug. Every time it's about agriculture. What has agriculture contributed to Pinduoduo? Are there more cost-effective agricultural products? Doesn't seem like it. I think the best long-termism is to quickly catch the AI express, don't wait for other companies to disrupt you.

$Cleveland Cliffs(CLF.US) Sell puts at an appropriate price, build a position as fate allows. It's best if we can take delivery; if not, we still earn a small premium.

Sold $CLF 260522 10.5 Put(CLF260522P10500.US) at the high point last night. Looks like we won't get assigned 😂

$Amazon(AMZN.US)If it drops at the opening, continue buying. High AI Capex is a good thing, at least compared to others.

Come, let me tell you a ghost story about $Apple(AAPL.US).

Today, Apple released the brand new MacBook Neo. This computer is equipped with the A18 Pro processor, which is the same processor used in the previous generation iPhone Pro.

As soon as this news came out, friends in the Apple community were a bit taken aback. Most people are thinking: To clear chip inventory, why did Apple come up with such a useless gimmick again?

I won't talk about its usefulness first. I think we can open up a thought experiment: besides clearing inventory, are there any other possibilities?

1. The Challenge of System Porting

Porting macOS to the A-series mobile chips is definitely a challenging and labor-intensive system development process. Especially since this chip might only have 8GB of RAM.

2. Software-Hardware Synergy

In such an environment, how do we ensure the device runs smoothly? How do we switch between multiple windows? Even if I open a note, a few web pages, and then open WeChat, how do we prevent the system from killing it in the background? All of this requires a series of collaborative efforts in software-hardware system design.

3. Guessing the Real Purpose

Engineers put in so much effort to build this system based on the A-chip. Is the sole purpose really just to clear inventory? Or, thinking differently: could this device just be a byproduct of some other plan?

The core purpose of the project is most likely to adapt macOS to mobile chips. Then, this functionality could be placed into one, or some, very important Apple products, integrating them into a new ecosystem.

Is it possible that by the end of 2026, we'll see a batch of iPhones branded with the Pro professional flag by Apple, or even the emergence of some completely new iPhone series?

This series could not only run iOS but also instantly turn into an macOS system when you connect the phone to a display for power and signal. It's both a phone and a Mac. (A foldable screen would still be an iPad.)

Take this phone to work, and the office only needs a keyboard; the phone can completely play the role of a trackpad.

After work, just unplug the display cable and take the phone with you, with the phone's battery remaining at 100% full charge.

This sounds like a very appealing story. Luo Yonghao might also sigh with great emotion: back then, he couldn't acquire his "subsidiary".

But I don't necessarily think such a thought experiment is a good business idea; at least, I haven't figured it out yet.

You can think of it this way: someone who can afford a foldable iPhone is most likely an Apple ecosystem user. How much would such a person have invested in iPhone, iPad, and Mac? Assuming that amount is around 30,000 yuan, and if Apple sells this phone for only 17,000 yuan, wouldn't Apple's revenue be less?

So, whether this succeeds or not, and whether it benefits Apple, I don't know. But at least it's a direction that consumer electronics enthusiasts find interesting.

Woke up and saw my account, my heart is already numb. My heart is dead, my heart is like water, my heart has entered stagnant water. I used to weave a pink dream for myself, a dream of breaking even. Now the dream is shattered, I'm old, lost all my money, in exchange for an increasingly aging face, in exchange for a reputation of being scolded. I was a beauty, why am I a clown? I was a beauty, why am I a clown? Is it God playing tricks on me, or is it the greed, anger, and ignorance in my heart that led me to the dark path? I looked at the stocks and options in my hand, sighed deeply, Pinduoduo, now, path, fig, Microsoft, meta, Netflix, Adobe, strictly speaking...