均衡配置少操作

$VG S&P 500(VOO.US) Market volatility has resurfaced after a month. But it's actually good, I've been selling over the past month, bit by bit, and my position has been reduced from 30% to 20%. The last batch was sold during the big bearish candlestick on 6/5. Lately, having a low position has allowed me to outperform the market. Waiting patiently...

The market is still like this: at high levels, a little movement causes a big drop; when it falls low enough, even small moves can cause it to rise. Although market sentiment is strong, overall it still depends on overall valuations and corporate profits.

In this crowded market, watching with 👀 the mood of waiting for a stampede event every day! Opportunities require patience!

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$VG S&P 500(VOO.US)I haven't looked at my holdings for a while. Today I checked, and the market value continues to climb. An investment portfolio should be something you can leave alone for a long time without worrying, so you have time to focus on your own work and things.

Today I slightly reduced my index positions, turning some profits into cash (dry powder). Also, I swapped a small portion of index holdings for defensive ones, keeping the overall portfolio allocation unchanged, with index ETFs still making up the largest share.

Total returns this year are limited because I've strengthened risk control and held a lot of cash. Moreover, this pullback wasn't deep; it just touched the first level of my buy line and quickly bounced back. Now I'm gradually reducing my position size bit by bit. Continuing to patiently wait for the next opportunity ⌛️.

$VG S&P 500(VOO.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)Over the weekend, bad news continued to come out of the Middle East, and now everyone is used to it. I made some portfolio adjustments last week, but the overall position didn't change much. The position corresponding to this price level has already been adjusted, and I won't add or reduce positions today anyway. With bullets on hand for a pullback, what's there to fear?

It feels like history is rhyming again. Before WWII, there were also constant small-scale conflicts around the world, and many countries were heavily in debt. International trade declined with various tariffs and embargoes. While it's unlikely to be a simple repeat, we can at least refer to the impact of war on financial markets.

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) was a lucky bottom-fishing attempt. After the rebound last week, I sold off some individual stocks, keeping my total position at a comfortable level. If it goes up, let it fly—who doesn't love making a profit? Watching patiently, for tech stocks on the offensive, both VOO and QQQ can bring in some returns.

Dividend defensive stocks have started to pull back, but they still seem expensive, so I'll wait and see. Investing in stocks is like buying goods: the goal is to find something of good quality at a low price, but you also have to be careful not to buy fakes (individual stocks that are value traps).

$VG S&P 500(VOO.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) The stock price dropped again because the weekend negotiations failed. Next, we'll watch to see if the conflict escalates or if Taco gets back on track. The current drop isn't too big; the market should have already cleared the first wave of panic selling, and it's clearly pricing in a return to normalcy.

If you trade stocks based on news now, you'll end up buying high and selling low, losing money like a fool. It's really better to focus more on valuation levels—buy when you think it's cheap, and consider releasing some cash when it's expensive. News can only be used to judge why it's rising or falling; don't easily extrapolate linearly.

Actually, there's no need to be too afraid of war. Those interested can look up the index trends in the US and UK during WWII and the Gulf War. The truly scary drops were during the high-valuation period of the Millennium Internet crisis.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$VG S&P 500(VOO.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)Suddenly it's peaceful again, everything reversed. Anyone who added to their positions in the past week must be feeling pretty good now. However, the night session index level has already triggered the upper valuation band for position reduction. Strictly following discipline, I've lowered my total position from 45% to 35%. Earn a bit less, let the profits go to everyone else, and I'll buy myself some peace of mind.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) Fortunately, during the 395-400 phase, I swapped almost all of my Microsoft holdings for index funds, and the drawdown is much smaller. However, the overall market drawdown is still at the "small to medium drawdown level." It's just that this round of large-cap stocks has fallen a lot, especially Microsoft, so the feeling of holding the "Magnificent Seven" is quite pronounced.

Now it's only recovered about 10 points, so we still need to be cautious. A 15-20 point drop counts as a major drawdown. A drop of over 20% is when a stock market crash truly begins. The US stock market has experienced multiple 30-50% declines before.

Warren Buffett recently told Becky Quick on CNBC that there hasn't been a substantial decline at all, so we should continue managing our positions well. I wonder if I can pick up QQQ around 500.

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$VG S&P 500(VOO.US)$CHALCO(02600.HK)

Friday and the weekend were very exciting again, with the stock price once again falling to a good level. The current valuation looks cheap from a 2-3 year perspective, but when viewed over a 10-20 year horizon, it's average.

1) Following VOO, I'm opening a small position in QQQ. Tech stocks have been hit hard this round, especially the "Magnificent Seven." If it looks cheap, I'll buy. Focus on index funds to ensure buying low and earning average returns in the medium term.

2) I opened a position in Aluminum Corporation of China early on. Recently, I've been allocating a bit to mining stocks (within 10%) considering inflation hedging needs. The short-term strong dollar suppressing commodity prices is a small short-term opportunity to open a position.

3) Overall position size remains below 50%, keeping my hands in check. The main concern is extreme scenarios. If a real recession hits, I'll still have ammunition. If the US and Iran truly reconcile now, I can also get some gains. Staying calm is key to good trading.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)$VG S&P 500(VOO.US)$GANFENGLITHIUM(01772.HK)$ISHRS MSCI Japan(EWJ.US)The market is extremely nervous now, jumping up and down, but I basically don't pay much attention to the conflict developments, as retail investors' information is severely lagging.

Since I previously swapped large amounts of Google and Microsoft for the S&P VOO, coupled with low positions and the sudden surge of Ganfeng Lithium in my portfolio, my account assets retreated by about 1% in March.

This week, I increased my position from 25-30% to 35-40%. I add when I think it's cheap (adding index funds like VOO and EWJ). I haven't added Microsoft/Google this round, mainly due to some concerns about high natural gas LNG prices pushing up electricity costs everywhere, which is negative for data centers. When uncertain, I buy the index.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) account has completely gone into a defensive shell. I've been reducing risk since last week, and currently, the main positions are in indices, with the total position controlled at 20%. I still hold individual stocks like Microsoft and Google, but the amounts are not large. Quietly waiting for a big opportunity to emerge from the decline.

Interest rate hikes are turning, short-term crude oil production capacity cannot recover, and the Iran war is hard to end. Many negative factors, and with the S&P's valuation previously at high levels, it hasn't even fallen 10%. Continue to wait, keep your ammunition ready!

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) I reduced some positions last Thursday-Friday and added a small amount of index. Adjusted the structure and portfolio allocation. Mainly due to war concerns, controlling positions, and waiting for opportunities.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Huang this time said the future is the AaaS era, and claw will become the operating system. Cloud providers become heavy asset stocks, the logic has changed dramatically. Business logic has a far greater impact on stock price than current financial statements, just look at Tesla's valuation.

Microsoft needs to prove itself, whether it can steer a wide range of office enterprise clients towards its own AI agent track, it needs time to prove that SaaS won't be disrupted. Otherwise, the company's profits won't be sustainable. Now AI technology is iterating rapidly, competition is fierce, and there really isn't much time left.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) Just took a look at the forum and found a bunch of people who bought options cursing. Thought something major happened, but the stock price didn't even move more than 1% up or down...

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)$VG S&P 500(VOO.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US)The Middle East conflict and soaring oil prices over the weekend have sent the market into panic mode. I bought a small amount of index funds this morning as a base position. There are still factors like crude oil reserves, Russian oil, and U.S. oil company expansion (U.S. shale oil costs are relatively high). In the long run, the price impact of the Middle East oil conflict has a ceiling. Currently, the index hasn't fallen low enough. Ammunition is loaded, waiting for the peak of panic!

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US) Trump: "Only accept Iran's unconditional surrender, and must arrange a satisfactory leader." From Venezuela to Iran, the stock god must have already set up short positions...

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) Although the U.S. stocks rebounded yesterday, South Korea intervened to support the market, and Asian stock markets turned positive, the core oil price has risen again. Donald Trump hasn't arranged the means to end the war! The whole world overestimated him. He's either an arrogant fool or a bad guy pretending to be stupid. As for this illogical U.S.-Iran conflict, the reason is no longer important. It's really hard to say how long the conflict and high oil prices can last!

Microsoft has recently transformed into a defensive stock, likely due to its relatively stable cash flow among big tech companies and its high self-sufficiency rate in funding capital expenditures. Additionally, considering that Middle Eastern big players are major investors in AI, the AI sector may also be affected if this continues. But given that there's still plenty of ammunition (capital), we remain cautiously optimistic. (Added some energy stocks at noon to hedge a little risk, too expensive to go heavy, hope this energy position ends up losing money.)

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) took a look today and it's gone from "Hard" back to "Micro" soft again. That's it then, adjusting slowly.