蔚来的交易员Goku

$MNSO(09896.HK)$POP MART(09992.HK)

IV. Review of the Current Market Situation: In a crowded trade environment, stick to undervalued long-term opportunities.

Currently, funds in the A-share market are highly concentrated in the technology sector, with leading companies exhibiting a strong siphon effect. Overall incremental market funds are gradually drying up.

From a value investing perspective, the present is not a time for pessimism. Instead, high-quality undervalued stocks present excellent structural opportunities for accumulation at low levels.

To conclude with my personal investing principles: Ignore short-term market sentiment fluctuations, base decisions on the real data from company financial reports and objective operational fundamentals, hold for the long term, and patiently wait for the realization of corporate value.

As an aside: Previously, due to a disagreement over views related to Nio, the StockPro for MINISO @大花卷 has already blocked me, but it's okay, haha. Investing is inherently about independent judgment and agreeing to disagree. I'd also like to thank the two big shots I've learned the most from, @奇迹的交易员cola @輸棟樓的韭菜, for sharing their insights.

$MNSO(09896.HK)$POP MART(09992.HK)

III. MINISO: Possessing the Attributes of Fast Retailing and QQ Music, with a Dual Strategy of Platform Retail and Capital Deployment

Switching perspectives to look at the MINISO in my portfolio, in my view, this company simultaneously possesses the dual attributes of Fast Retailing (Uniqlo's parent company) and QQ Music, forming a distinct contrast with Pop Mart's development path focused on high store efficiency in small shops:

1. Core Foundational Capability Differences

Pop Mart focuses on premium stores, relentlessly pursuing single-store operational efficiency; MINISO leverages a massive offline store network across all channels to build a traffic platform, possessing strong brand collaboration and category licensing capabilities, along with top-tier supply chain control strength in the industry.

2. Core Business Logic

It covers a full range of daily consumer goods, creating a comfortable one-stop offline shopping experience to reduce user decision-making costs; it retains customer traffic through a rich and diverse product matrix, capturing the public's mindshare for essential daily retail consumption.

Review of its two major key projects: TOP JOY, Yonghui Superstores

1. TOP JOY

TOP JOY is equivalent to a low-cost venture capital project within the MINISO Group. The initial investment cost is controllable, and it is now nearing an IPO. The project can operate independently to generate cash flow while also achieving product synergy and two-way traffic collaboration with the parent company, and it is by no means a failed business.

2. Yonghui Superstores

MINISO's precise move to acquire Yonghui Superstores before the market rally in September 2024 is sufficient proof of Ye Guofu's top-tier capital operation skills. Ye Guofu has always adhered to a core investment philosophy: when the market doesn't understand, discovering opportunities early makes them yours.

At this stage, Yonghui's fundamentals are continuously improving: the group is closing down a batch of long-term loss-making stores while simultaneously implementing new-concept renovated stores, actively driving innovation in the traditional supermarket industry. My personal judgment: From the business model of Pang Donglai, Ye Guofu has grasped the operational logic of the new generation of high-end supermarkets. Relying on the supply chain resources and industry experience accumulated over years of deep involvement in retail, he aims to empower the traditional supermarket industry to complete its transformation and upgrade.

Simultaneously, the new CEO, Wang Shoucheng, is pragmatic, hardworking, and deeply rooted in physical retail. Compared to the previous Zhang brothers' management team, his operational execution ability is stronger, making Yonghui's subsequent reform fundamentals worth continuous tracking.

$MNSO(09896.HK)$POP MART(09992.HK)

II. A Rational View of Both Companies: Rejecting the Practice of Praising One While Demeaning the Other; Neither is Entirely Original

It's a common observation on the Snowball platform: many shareholders holding Pop Mart, while defending their own investment, habitually belittle MINISO, criticizing it for being pro-Japan, copycatting, and low-end positioning, while deliberately mythologizing Pop Mart, portraying it as a perfect enterprise that grew from scratch into an industry giant through complete original creation.

In fact, this behavior of praising one while demeaning the other is completely unnecessary.

Wang Ning himself has long publicly admitted: Pop Mart's blind box model was borrowed from the Japanese market, not natively original; its overall offline retail model also referenced multiple offline stores, and is not 100% original.

Ultimately, Wang Ning and MINISO's Ye Guofu are essentially the same type of entrepreneur: both love offline shopping and excel at capturing market inspiration from real offline consumption scenarios. It's just that their strategic styles and operational approaches are completely different, with no inherent superiority or inferiority. Peers can indeed learn from each other.

I also want to encourage all investors: investment should be long-termist, emulating Duan Yongping's approach of holding positions on a yearly basis. Don't mindlessly hype and pile on positive news when the stock price rises, nor blindly curse when it falls. There's even less need to prove the value of your holdings by suppressing peer stocks. The core reason Duan Yongping greatly admires Wang Ning is also because their underlying investment philosophy and personal principles are highly aligned, a point clearly evident from the content of their public interviews.

$MNSO(09896.HK)$POP MART(09992.HK)

Investment Notes: Reading "Because It's Unique" and Reviewing the Core Business Models and Investment Logic of Pop Mart and MINISO

Recently finished reading Wang Ning's book "Because It's Unique". Combined with my own practical experience holding MINISO, I'd like to use the book's perspectives to compare and deconstruct the business models of Pop Mart and MINISO, while also sharing my current thoughts on value investing.

I. Pop Mart: Analogy to Sony/Universal Music Group, Building Barriers with Dual Hard and Soft Moats

I liken Pop Mart to top entertainment groups like Sony and Universal in the market, as its core business model logic highly aligns with that of major entertainment companies:

1. The logic of content IP incubation is identical to the star-making model.

The company incubates original IPs internally while also scouting and incorporating high-quality, emerging external IPs into its ecosystem, exactly like how entertainment companies nurture artists and sign new stars.

2. The global growth path of IPs aligns with the book's viewpoint.

Wang Ning mentions in the book: Every country and region can give rise to local top-tier IPs (corresponding to national singers like Jay Chou and Jacky Cheung), and can also create top-tier IPs that sweep the globe (corresponding to international superstars like Taylor Swift, Rihanna, Maroon 5, etc.).

3. Visible Hard Moat: Full Control of the IP Industry Chain

Pop Mart continuously launches new products, switches design styles to break into new circles, and engages in cross-border collaborations to broaden its audience. It firmly holds the complete intellectual property rights of all its IPs, building a visible hard barrier in the industry.

4. Invisible Soft Moat: Long-term Accumulated Organizational Capabilities

The invisible core competitiveness comes from years of accumulated operational experience, efficient organizational coordination, control over full-chain details, and mature supply chain management capabilities. These capabilities cannot be replicated in the short term and require long-term cultivation, which is precisely Wang Ning's area of expertise.

Simultaneously, Wang Ning's management style perfectly suits Pop Mart's development pace: calm personality, extremely patient in execution, holding absolute strategic authority within the group, yet fully delegating operational power to the team in daily management. This gives each original IP ample room for trial and error and growth, and he precisely intervenes to help IPs break through growth ceilings during their bottleneck periods.

$NIO Inc(NIO.US)

High-end aesthetics seize the initiative,

Full-stack in-house R&D builds a solid foundation,

A unique strategy leads the times,

Blue sky vision heads towards the future～

Hope to return to the peak through a powerful product matrix within these 2 years, with the ES9 firing the first shot of 2026! (Brother Bin looks really handsome today [smirk])

$NIO Inc(NIO.US)

"No Trace of Iron Shoes: NIO's Decade-Long March and Its Resonance with Mao Zedong Thought"

On the first day of December 2025, Li Bin held "The Long March" tightly in his hands, gazing at the lights of NIO ES8 and battery swap stations outside the window. The scene was like a convergence of history and reality—a company's ten-year journey resonating deeply with an expedition that changed China's destiny.

When the new energy wave surged, NIO chose the pure electric route against the trend, missing out on the extended-range benefits. During sales slumps, weekly rankings became popular domestically, with new forces rising rapidly; just as technology turned around, the weekly rankings abruptly stopped; when pushing for profitability, subsidies accelerated their phase-out. Fortune never seemed to favor NIO, but Li Bin found the answer in "The Long March": victory never goes to opportunists, but to those who steadfastly adhere to strategy and advance step by step.

NIO made battery swap stations its "base areas," adopting a "rural areas encircling the cities" approach. Now, over 3,000 swap stations cover the nation, solving the energy replenishment challenge. Technologically, it "concentrated forces to fight battles of annihilation," investing 60 billion in R&D to conquer solid-state batteries and autonomous driving chips, with the L60 model disrupting the market through innovation. Just like Mao's wisdom of protracted war and annihilation: avoid short-term noise and dig deep in key areas.

The deeper strength lies in NIO's "mass line." From NIO Houses to user co-creation systems, users are not just consumers but participants. In 2019, when NIO was on the brink of bankruptcy, it was the trust and support of users that secured critical investments. This mirrors how the Red Army relied on the masses to build the strongest moat in the coldest winter.

The resonance between Li Bin and "The Long March" reflects the entrepreneurial spirit of the new era: strategy as firm as rock, tactics as flexible as water, and the people's hearts as the foundation. NIO's decade is like the Red Army's journey from Ruijin to Yan'an—persisting amid doubts, breaking through after setbacks, and ultimately igniting "sparks" with technology, infrastructure, and public support.

History never favors the lucky, but rewards those who proceed steadily. As swap stations light up highways and L60 enters households, NIO proves with action: the real Long March has no savior, only the footprints of perseverance that will eventually pave the road to the future.@Future Trader Pi Kanchuan

$NIO Inc(NIO.US) $XPeng(XPEV.US)$Li Auto(LI.US)

Bin is still very down-to-earth, the only CEO who explicitly stated in the earnings report that replacement subsidies and the phase-out of state subsidies would affect sales 🧐 and directly lowered guidance. Quoting the wisdom of Chairman Mao's poem to comfort everyone: "Too much complaint will break your heart, but take the long view and be broad-minded" to be a true investor who grows with the company.

Nio shareholders or new energy vehicle bridge friends should align these information gaps.

1. The new energy vehicle subsidy policies in many regions have been suspended, and replacement quotas are quickly exhausted. The new energy vehicle market cooled significantly in November, with even popular brands experiencing a cliff-like drop in sales. The possibility of the state subsidy resuming next year is over 90%, but policy loopholes (such as cross-regional invoicing to claim subsidies) will be tightened. This has led to non-essential consumers waiting until January next year for policy clarity, with only essential users placing orders during this period. The fuel vehicle market remains relatively stable, but the overall auto market is experiencing a winter test. 🧊

2. There are specialized trading companies in the industry that purchase these new energy vehicles in bulk to claim subsidies, register them domestically, and then export them overseas for significant profits (e.g., Southeast Asia or Russia) due to the lack of purchase tax. However, after the subsidy phase-out, sales in this segment have plummeted, affecting certain models and brands. 📉

3. In fact, the overall economic data for October released by Fengxian County was poor, typically taking one to two months to reflect in the market. This year's Double Eleven was quieter than usual in terms of promotions by major brands. ❤️‍🩹

Finally, some answers from Qianwen are attached as a supplement. The first quarter of next year may be the litmus test for new energy vehicle brands, exposing those who previously manipulated data. @Future Trader Pi Kanchuan Pi, I feel that Nio's team is the most cohesive and action-oriented group of guys. I hope we can also contribute our modest efforts to Nio in the future, and I hope Pi will continue to bring everyone together firmly 😛

$NIO Inc(NIO.US)Surviving in the most competitive domestic market is extremely difficult. Bin Ge mentioned multiple times in the past two months that Nio needs to rely on its own 'blood-making' this time. So, for all the speculators or value investors, the first drop of blood has arrived 🩸 (Personally, I think it's good for the company and value investors, but for those who are just speculating, they won't make money not just on Nio.)

$NIO Inc(NIO.US)@未来的交易员皮看穿

Brother Pi, are you coming to Canton Tower for the live launch event? 😁

$NIO Inc(NIO.US) @未来的交易员皮看穿

In my opinion, the sales in the first week of June were unsatisfactory, and the remaining three weeks need to achieve an average sales volume of over 6,500 units to meet the guidance.

Here are some speculations (source of fantasy: the story of capital operations and government intervention behind Kazuo Inamori's rescue of JAL read yesterday):

1. Nio deliberately suppressed sales in the first or second week of this month, cooperating with the further decline in stock prices to drive away retail investors who were on the fence or lacked conviction, allowing capital to complete accumulation. ✅

2. At the end of the month, good news such as financing (combined with recent rumors) will be released, coupled with the release of sales figures, creating a double positive effect and forming a spiral upward trend. For example: Leapmotor stood out among the strong competitors, started to turn a profit, and quickly gained market recognition, forming the current "thriving" situation. ✅

3. Starting in July, the strong pricing of the L90 model, more details about the ES8, management downsizing, and the completion of the 318 battery swap stations will be combined with the new car's ability to shoot panoramic videos for extensive promotion. ✅

Ultimately, this will complete the turnaround!

Li Bin once said: "Make progress step by step, and success will come with persistence." But in this chaotic and overly competitive market, it may not be possible to survive gently anymore. Nio's product strength has always been at the leading level in the market, but it lacks marketing tactics. It's important to know that ordinary people are easily brainwashed into buying corresponding products (e.g., diamonds? Luxury items beyond their affordability?).

Currently, the company and related capital must take "unconventional" actions to save the current "Nio" and create a long-term future.

If in 2019, Hefei SASAC and Nio had only dispersed their forces to accumulate enough chips at 1-2 yuan before announcing the cooperation, the 7 billion yuan investment would have already been profitable in the subsequent rise. 🧐

I hope this is not a pipe dream before bankruptcy or merger. 😃

$NIO Inc(NIO.US) @未来的交易员皮看穿

City: Guangzhou

Noticed a phenomenon: the older models of "Nio, XPeng, Li Auto" seem to have the highest presence on the roads, with Nio leading, followed by XPeng, likely due to its headquarters being here.

Does this indicate something? 🧐 Wondering what the situation is in other friends' cities? (Excluding BYD and Huawei.)

$Unitedhealth(UNH.US)

Once saw an influencer talk about the importance of risk control and hedging protection, learned it today 🥲

$Foremost Lithium Resource & Tech(FMST.US) What's the situation with the trading halt? @锡进的交易员cola