Michael Burry Tracker

Michael Burry Tracker

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry was right about Oracle

• Nov 2: Oracle files to raise $20B in stock and debt to keep funding its Al data centers

• Nov 4: Cancels a $7B Al chip lease with Tencent after U.S pressure

• Nov 5: Falls 7% as the broader Al infrastructure selloff hits, down 17% in five days

• Today: $Oracle(ORCL.US) down 66% from its record high

It’s been 301 days since Burry shorted Oracle and it’s down 43% since

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Michael Burry Tracker

AI stocks may have bottomed

Michael Burry sold 25% of his chip puts:

• Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US): +4%

• AMD $AMD(AMD.US): +9%

• Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US): +4%

• SanDisk $Sandisk(SNDK.US): +3%

• Taiwan Semi $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US): +5%

• ASML $ASML(ASML.US): +5%

• Intel $Intel(INTC.US): +5%

• Qualcomm $Qualcomm(QCOM.US): +4%

• Arm $Arm(ARM.US): +3%

• Lam Research $Lam Research(LRCX.US): +9%

• KLA $KLA(KLAC.US): +6%

• Applied Materials $Applied Materials(AMAT.US): +5%

• Super Micro $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US): +6%

• Coherent $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US): +9%

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Michael Burry Tracker

Could be one of the best buying opportunities in years

The VIX just jumped as much as 70% in a single day and a move that large has only happened 8 times since 1991

What happened to the S&P after the prior 8, on average:

• 1 month later: +3.0% (7 of 8 times positive)

• 3 months later: +7.1% (6 of 8 times positive)

• 6 months later: +10.4% (8 of 8 times positive)

• 1 year later: +14.7% (7 of 8 times positive)

A move this extreme has only happened 8 times before today since 1991. Bookmark this post

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry is avoiding Anthropic stock when it goes public

He says the company's financials don't add up. The company's actual spending commitments add up to about $1.07 trillion, which is far more than the $895.4 billion Anthropic disclosed

His case:

1. Anthropic needs 11.6% monthly revenue growth through 2027 just to keep up

2. Anthropic left out $120.5B contract to buy compute from SpaceX

3. Spending topped $100.8B, not the $69.8B reported

Anthropic's benefit to doing this is simple, a smaller number on paper makes the company look safer right before it needs investors to buy in

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Michael Burry Tracker

Michael Burry was right about the AI bubble:

• $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) -6%

• $Tesla(TSLA.US) -9%

• $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) -8%

• $Oracle(ORCL.US) -4%

• $Broadcom(AVGO.US) -6%

• $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) -7%

• $ASML(ASML.US) -6%

• $AMD(AMD.US) -12%

• $Micron Tech(MU.US) -10%

• $Sandisk(SNDK.US) -14%

• $Dell Tech(DELL.US) -10%

• $Coreweave(CRWV.US) -9%

• $Nebius(NBIS.US) -13%

• $Bloom Energy(BE.US) -15%

• $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) -8%

• $Arista Networks(ANET.US) -7%

• $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) -10%

• $IREN(IREN.US) -12%

• $Core Scientific, Inc.(CORZ.US) -9%

• $Applied Digital(APLD.US) -13%

• $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) -10%

• $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) -14%

• $Lumentum(LITE.US) -11%

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry says Anthropic's business model is slowing down fast

Below are his reasonings:

1. Revenue growth dropped from 144% last quarter to 47% this quarter

2. Operating income flipped from a $974M profit to a $567M loss

3. Anthropic owes $895.4B in compute spending through to 2045, about 12x what it makes a year

Burry brings up "tokenmaxxing," because token usage isn't slowing down, it's at all-time high. The issue is Anthropic's margins can't keep up with costs right now

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Microsoft co-founder and Bill Gates childhood friend Paul Allen’s family office just revealed the investment portfolio

Here's everything you need to know:

Top positions:

• Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US): 1,125,000 shares

• Bending Spoons $Bending Spoons Spa(BSP.US): 5,695,200 shares

• Acuity $Acuity(AYI.US): 344,100 shares

• Aurora Innovation $Aurora Innovation(AUR.US): 10,385,096 shares

• Affirm $Affirm(AFRM.US): 721,382 shares

New positions:

• Bending Spoons $Bending Spoons Spa(BSP.US)

Adds:

• Figma $Figma(FIG.US): +55,832 shares

• SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US): +262 shares

Full exits:

• BlackSky Technology $BlackSky Tech(BKSY.US)

Summary: Biggest move was Bending Spoons. Paul Allen’s family office opened a ~$190M position, making $Bending Spoons Spa(BSP.US) nearly 20% of the entire 13F book

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Michael Burry Tracker

Bill Ackman pushes back on Big Tech's AI spending fears

Ackman's fund Pershing Square put 37.4% of its money into Big Tech, betting on growth as capex went from $140 billion to $740 billion in 3 years

He claims:

• The spending is offensive growth, not defensive

• A capex cut would boost free cash flow too

• Pershing Square holds $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US) and $Amazon(AMZN.US)

• Hyperscaler revenue could run 15% to 35% above Wall Street's estimates by 2029

Ackman's exact words: "[Wall Street is] ascribing limited potential to the significant future growth in revenue and earnings"

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry is winning during the AI bubble

Here's how his shorts are performing:

• Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US): -2.3%

• Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US): -13.9%

• Oracle $Oracle(ORCL.US): -17.6%

• Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US): -20.8%

Everyone was hating on him, but who's laughing now

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Michael Burry Tracker

Tomorrow could trigger the stock market's biggest rally

President Trump could become the 8th president in history to lose both the House and Senate to Democrats

What happened to the S&P after, on average:

• 1 month later: +2.1% (6 of 7 times positive)

• 3 months later: +10.7% (7 of 7 times positive)

• 6 months later: +17.5% (7 of 7 times positive)

• 1 year later: +15.5% (7 of 7 times positive)

This has only happened 7 times since 1954 and prediction markets have the odds this happens at 71%

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry sees 140% upside in one of his positions

He sees a buyout price of $100-$120 a share for $Fiserv, Inc.(FISV.US)

1. Private Equity firm is paying 7x profit for $Global Payments(GPN.US) and same math on Fiserv puts it at $100 to $120 a share

2. Fiserv's been stuck in the "penalty box" over old management's bad targets and hidden Argentina accounting

3. Fiserv is at $50 now, a price where a buyer could get a 15% yearly return or more

Burry will continue holding $Fiserv, Inc.(FISV.US) and says insiders have been buying at these low prices

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Housing market just got spookier

America has more home sellers than buyers, biggest gap in over 10 years

• Prices fell for first time in 3 years

• Only 276,000 home deals are in progress, record low

• Every major city sees fewer sales, 3 weeks in a row

• Average house payment just hit second highest level ever

Michael Burry's advice: "Buy half the house you can afford"

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry is choosing to buy Build-A-Bear over AI companies

Below are his reasonings:

1. The stock trades at 7x earnings with no debt

2. A buyout would value it around $60 to $65 a share

3. Build-A-Bear has bought back 25% of its shares since 2021

4. 1 in 4 Build-A-Bear shares is a bet that the stock falls, and short sellers would need about 9 days to buy them all back

Burry says Build-A-Bear $Build A Bear(BBW.US) could jump 50% "relatively quickly"

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry says Anthropic's IPO filing shows the whole AI boom is "catastrophically vulnerable"

Below are his reasonings:

1. Anthropic owes $537B for computer power, and pending deals could push it to $800B

2. Anthropic brings in about $65B a year, so it owes about 12x what it makes

3. Half of $537B goes to $Amazon(AMZN.US), $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) and $Microsoft(MSFT.US)

4. Anthropic's sales growth slowed from 144% last quarter to 46% this quarter, while its compute costs jumped 78%

Burry says this setup works while AI keeps growing, but one slowdown could hit cause a collapse

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry might be right about AI Bubble

Anthropic just filed to go public under $Anthropic(ANT.US)

In the 300+ page filing:

1. Anthropic's filing contains 90+ pages of risk factors

2. One section warns Anthropic's AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity"

3. Anthropic is targeting largest IPO at $2T valuation

Burry predicted Anthropic would use "hype & puffery" before the IPO

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry says the stock market is sitting on a "supervolcano"

He says every market top of the last 40 years looked calm right before it blew

Last 2 times stocks went nowhere for decades:

• 1929 to 1949: -58%

• 2000 to 2011: -40%

His warning: the next one is a long wait, not a crash

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: The Fear And Greed index have reached 'Extreme Fear' in the stock market

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Michael Burry Tracker

The AI bubble might soon be popping:

$Nebius(NBIS.US): -10.44%

$Dell Tech(DELL.US): -8.67%

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US): -8.62%

$Coherent Corp.(COHR.US): -8.56%

$Coreweave(CRWV.US): -8.09%

$Lumentum(LITE.US): -7.99%

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US): -7.50%

$Sandisk(SNDK.US): -6.99%

$Arista Networks(ANET.US): -6.92%

$AMD(AMD.US): -5.54%

$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US): -5.48%

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US): -2.68%

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry is buying China stocks while he shorts the Nasdaq

He:

• Bought more BYD $BYD Company Limited(BYDDF.US)

• Continues holding $JD.com(JD.US), $Tencent(TCEHY.US), $MPNGF, $HDALF

• Avoiding Alibaba $Alibaba(BABA.US) until price hits KHD 70s or stops issuing stock for AI

Burry has been calling Hong Kong "very undervalued", per his Substack

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry says Anthropic's private valuation could buy 78 profitable S&P 500 companies

Calls it 'a fun game in times like these'

Companies on the list:

• Domino's Pizza

• Clorox

• J.M. Smucker

• Stanley Black & Decker

• Deckers Outdoor

• Lululemon

Burry has been saying we're closing on a crash and on Sept 29 said, “For the benefit of humanity, the markets should tank hard and prevent the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs"

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Michael Burry Tracker

Michael Burry's complete holdings, per his Substack

Top tier:

• MercadoLibre $Mercadolibre(MELI.US) [Long, 12%]

• Deckers $Deckers Outdoor(DECK.US) [Long]

Second tier (9% each):

• Molina Healthcare $Molina Healthcare(MOH.US) [Long]

• Temple & Webster $TPW [Long]

Third tier (undisclosed %):

• JD $JD.com(JD.US) [Long]

• Birkenstock $Birkenstock(BIRK.US) [Long]

• Adobe $Adobe(ADBE.US) [Long]

• HCA Healthcare $HCA Healthcare(HCA.US) [Long]

• Fiserv $Fiserv, Inc.(FISV.US) [Long]

• Build-A-Bear Workshop $Build A Bear(BBW.US) [Long]

• Veeva Systems $Veeva Systems -CL(VEEV.US) [Long]

• Freddie Mac $Freddie Mac(FMCC.US) [Long]

• PayPal $Paypal(PYPL.US) [Long]

• QXO $QXO(QXO.US) [Long]

• Ero Copper $ERO Copper(ERO.US) [Long]

• BYD $BYDFF [Long]

Call options:

• JD $JD.com(JD.US) [Call, 2029]

• Zoetis $Zoetis(ZTS.US) [Call, 2029]

• Sprouts Farmers Market $Sprouts Farmers(SFM.US) [Call, 2028]

Put book (bearish, largest to smallest):

• Nasdaq 100 $NDX [Put, Sept 2027]

• Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) [Put, Sept 2027]

• Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) [Put, Sept 2027]

• Semiconductor ETF $SOXX [Put, Sept 2027]

• Oracle $Oracle(ORCL.US) [Put, Dec 2027]

• Caterpillar $Caterpillar(CAT.US) [Put, Dec 2027]

• Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) [Put, June 2027]

• Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) [Put, June 2027]

• MetLife $MetLife(MET.US) [Put, 2029]

Full exits:

• Lululemon $Lululemon(LULU.US) [Long] - Swapped for Deckers

• Fannie Mae $Federal National Mortgage Association(FNMA.US) [Long] - Entirety into Freddie Mac

• Flutter $Flutter ENT(FLUT.US) [Long] - Rotated into Lululemon

• Zoetis $Zoetis(ZTS.US) [Long] - Stock swapped for 2029 calls

• Sprouts Farmers $Sprouts Farmers(SFM.US) [Long] - swapped 2028 calls

• Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) [Short] - Rolled into Sept 2027 puts

• CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US) [Short] - Covered, no puts yet

• $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Nebius(NBIS.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Oracle(ORCL.US), $Caterpillar(CAT.US), $SOXX [Short] - All covered, replaced with puts

Summary: Burry's book almost entirely puts instead of shorts on the AI basket he's been bearish on. He's "moving timelines up" on when he expects the bubble to burst, and he's using tax-loss season to swap LULU→DECK and FNMA→FMCC while buying into names like Ero Copper, QXO, and BYD outside the AI trade

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Someone look into Webull

Webull's President and CFO both sold up to $1M of $Webull(BULL.US) month before Congress flags China ties

$Webull(BULL.US) lost 19% that day

• President sold $516K on Sept 8 at $9.58

• CFO sold $494K 6 days later at $8.98

• House China committee released its report on Oct 7

• $Webull(BULL.US) now trades at $6.12

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry says the cracks are already showing

Here's where he sees them:

1. Private equity and private credit are "getting torn apart under the surface of the calm"

2. Private equity firms own insurance companies, and he says those insurers are "holding too many bad assets"

3. Those insurers lend a big share of the money building AI data centers

4. Data center projects are already running into delays

5. Companies are building their own small AI models using "whatever is cheapest, even Chinese open weight models"

This explains Burry's short position for MetLife. He holds $MetLife(MET.US) puts expiring in 2029

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry exposes how Microsoft is making its spending look smaller

Here's his reasoning:

1. Microsoft rents its data centers on leases that last 13 years on average

2. If you rent a building for most of its life, accounting rules count it as buying the building, so it goes into your spending numbers

3. Microsoft used to say its data centers last 15 years. A 13-year lease was most of that, so its leases counted as spending

4. Now Microsoft is saying its data centers last 25 years. The same 13-year lease is only about half of that, so it counts as rent and drops out of spending

5. That cut Microsoft's 2026 spending forecast to ~$175B, even though its CFO said the real spending plan "remains unchanged"

6. Microsoft has $329.1B of data center leases signed that haven't started yet, up 3.5x in 12 months

Burry says Microsoft is using these numbers "as a lever to get what it wants", and not one analyst asked about it

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Michael Burry Tracker

Breaking: Michael Burry says the AI boom is running on one giant loop and time is running out

Here's his breakdown:

1. Burry shared a report from Wall Street lender Ares tracking $573B of AI financing from the last 12 months

2. All of it runs through just 8 companies: Meta, Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI, Anthropic, Broadcom and Nvidia

3. They lend to each other, guarantee each other's debt and buy from each other, so one company's loan is backed by another company's promise to keep spending

4. Every deal depends on one thing: AI spending never slowing down

5. If AI revenue disappoints for even one season, the guarantees could all get called at once, right when the companies backing them are at their weakest

6. Burry says it's the same circular financing that turned the 2000 telecom fiber boom into a bust

Burry claims the stock market in the first stage of grief and the crash is soon

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