且涨海外投

The US June CPI data released last night unexpectedly fell short of market expectations, indicating that inflation is on the decline. The month-on-month growth rate of -0.4% for this CPI was partly due to the expected drop in oil prices, and partly due to the unexpected drop in core inflation. Before the release of this CPI data, the market had been falling sharply recently. One important reason was the concern about tightening liquidity, with expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates within the year, and even yesterday, the probability of a July rate hike was priced at 50%. However, based on the latest dot plot forecast, it seems...

《Why Can XBI Rise Despite Interest Rate Hike Expectations?》A few days ago, we noted that the biopharmaceutical sector in the U.S. stock market has been rising relatively steadily this year, but Hong Kong-listed innovative drug stocks have suffered significant losses. This is certainly due to underlying fundamental quality reasons and the fact that the Hong Kong market is more susceptible to the impact of interest rate hikes. However, China's innovative drugs will also benefit from some major trends we mentioned in the previous article, such as the empowerment of AI in R&D. Moreover, more and more Chinese innovative drug companies are attracting attention from large international MNCs, with an increasing number of pipelines being acquired by overseas large pharmaceutical companies...

Recently, everyone's attention may be focused on global tech stocks, but in fact, besides tech stocks, there's another sector in the U.S. stock market that has been performing quite well. It's more suitable for investors who are recently a bit fearful of the high U.S. stock market and want to do some high-to-low switching. This sector is the U.S. stock market's biotechnology and healthcare sector. The U.S. biotech ETF (XBI) has been hitting new highs all the way, with the current price standing above $150 and the weekly K-line breaking through previous highs. However, what's rather strange is that the U.S. biopharmaceutical sector is famously 'interest rate sensitive,' so how can it ignore interest rate disturbances and strengthen against the trend? Isn't the expectation of interest rate hikes quite strong recently? Let's talk about it yesterday...

Yesterday, the South Korean stock market fell nearly 10%, with SK Hynix plunging nearly 12% and Samsung Electronics dropping over 8%. There were many post-mortem analyses for the sharp decline, with some attributing it to profit-taking by leveraged funds, the South Korean government's plan to tax floating profits, interest rate hike expectations, and so on. If we only look at the drop, it's easy to worry about whether the AI bubble has burst, but at this time the fundamentals are more important. I'll combine the charts from Bernstein's latest research report to provide an interpretation: First, memory prices are still rising. The report expects DRAM prices to continue rising after Q2 2026...

There has been a significant piece of news in the AI field these past two days. Elon Musk was asked how long it would take for China to catch up to Claude's top-tier Fable model in large models. Musk estimated it would be in the first quarter of next year. In the comments below, Tang Jie, the founder of Zhipu AI, replied that it might not take that long. Let's look at the current ranking of domestic models. According to benchmark data from some ranking organizations, Zhipu's GLM5.2 indeed ranks second only to Claude's Fable in current benchmarks...

Recently, the gold market has experienced a significant pullback, with the magnitude of the decline reaching an extreme value in recent years. This sharp correction in gold prices is mainly due to pessimistic expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. However, over the past one or two weeks, people have gradually realized that US economic data is unlikely to be as good as the surface-level non-farm payroll data released two Fridays ago. Moreover, with the US and Iran beginning to sign an agreement this week and the Strait of Hormuz resuming navigation, oil prices are expected to continue falling. This will somewhat alleviate the transmission pressure on US inflation. Furthermore, as we mentioned in a previous post, recently, with the high-level pullback in gold prices...

Space X has officially begun trading, currently opening directly up more than 20%, with its market cap soaring to over $2 trillion. After this listing, Musk's wealth level will turn him into a trillionaire, note: a trillionaire, not a billionaire. Currently, Musk already holds absolute equity in two leading U.S.-listed companies, building a vast technology and innovation-driven capital empire. The level of SpaceX's IPO valuation will also be the highest in recent years. However, this year overall is a big year for U.S. stock IPOs...

Haven't talked about Hong Kong stocks for a long time, let's talk about Hong Kong stocks. This year, the Hong Kong stock market continues to be disappointing, especially the Hang Seng Tech Index. In fact, the overall performance of the Hang Seng Index is still acceptable, as there are still many value-dividend sectors that are relatively resilient. However, the performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng Biotech Index this year has been very poor. The overall weakness of the Hong Kong stock market this year is mainly due to the large number of IPOs issued in the past few years, with many companies of varying quality going public in Hong Kong. The lock-up period is gradually starting this year. In fact, from past IPO data, we can see...

In terms of AI, yesterday, two major model manufacturers, Anthropic and Google, respectively released their latest models. Anthropic's Claude Mythos and Fable5 are more suitable for running extremely complex long tasks, while also introducing the concept of a safety guardrail. This means that when you use the latest model, Mythos, to access areas the model considers relatively dangerous, its capabilities will be automatically downgraded to prevent misuse by malicious actors. On Google's side, they also released a new generation of Google Translate...

Yesterday, data on the central bank's gold purchases in May was released. The overall gold price in May continued to weaken. The data shows that in May, the central bank continued its large-scale gold buying trend that started in March, with the monthly increase in gold holdings once again reaching a new stage high. In recent months, the overall gold price has been relatively weak. Earlier, this was due to liquidity tensions caused by the Middle East conflict, leading many international buyers to sell gold as a liquid asset to cover positions in other risk assets. However, the recent decline in gold is due to stronger interest rate hike expectations. Last Friday's non-farm payroll data exceeded market expectations...

Last night, U.S. stocks fell because Broadcom's earnings failed to meet market expectations, causing a sharp drop in Broadcom's stock price and leading to a relatively significant pullback in the entire semiconductor and technology sectors. However, at the same time, for example, we saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average surge, rising nearly 2% at one point. The Dow Jones is primarily composed of industrial and financial sectors, along with some healthcare sectors. European markets also rose overall yesterday. The overall European stock market can be seen as a value-style sector close to the U.S. Dow Jones. In fact, over the past year, the performance of the Chinese and U.S. stock markets has been very similar, both led by technology stocks driving the market higher...

Yesterday, the global tech and capital circles once again focused their attention on NVIDIA's Taipei GTC conference. Before the conference officially began, there was a pre-event where the new generation of chips adapted for AI PCs, RTX Spark, was released, marking NVIDIA's official entry into the PC market. The strength of the new chip is not about adding another AI plugin to the PC, but about redefining the PC into a personal AI computer capable of running local agents. Traditional computers of the past were like a "kit car," where the CPU handling basic tasks was the chassis...

Recently, Arm, NVIDIA, NVIDIA AI, and Microsoft Windows have, in a rare move, simultaneously posted the exact same "coded message" on social media: "A new era of PC." They also included a mysterious set of geographic coordinates: 25.0528, 121.5990. These coordinates point to the NVIDIA Taipei GTC conference, set to open this week. For decades, the brains of our computers (CPUs) have been dominated by Intel and AMD, a structure known as X86 architecture...

"Trump is also pursuing 'self-sufficiency and control'" "Intel: The 'group-buying meal' of US tech stocks" We've written a few articles before introducing that under the leadership of Trump's administration, the US has significantly increased direct government equity investments in some key sectors. Last year, the focus was relatively heavy on semiconductor manufacturing and critical minerals. As a result, we can see that, for example, in the semiconductor sector, Intel has already begun to revive, with its stock price at least doubling several times over. And in the minerals sector, the government has also officially taken stakes in several mining companies. The pace of government investment hasn't stopped...

US stocks went crazy again last night, to be precise, it was a localized frenzy. The core catalyst came from a research report (and of course, it's also related to Trump's endorsement of Micron). The research report released by UBS before the market opened directly doubled Micron's target price to $1,625. (Micron closed at $895.88 last night, with its market cap already exceeding $1 trillion, ranking 13th in the global listed company market cap rankings. Following closely behind is SK Hynix, also a leader in memory chips). It's worth noting that Micron had already risen 240% last year, and it has risen another 200% so far this year...

I've been quite busy over the past week or two, so there will be fewer article updates. Today, I'll just briefly talk about the Huawei Tao's Law that's been flooding social media. According to reports, Huawei will launch a Kirin mobile phone chip based on Tao's Law and using "logic folding technology" this autumn. The most critical process enhancement, "logic folding," is essentially 3D packaging. Simply put, it's like building a bungalow and a flat road before, but now building a duplex and an overpass, stacking digital, storage, and analog circuits vertically in 3D. This will have some differences compared to the previous Moore's Law, and the primary beneficiary of Moore's Law is TSMC's advanced process technology...

Early yesterday morning, Google finally released its latest large model, Gemini 3.5. It also released a series of new data for its large model, which is also very impressive: Gemini App's MAU doubled to over 900 million in a year, Google Search's AI Overview feature users exceeded 2.5 billion, and AI mode users surpassed 1 billion. This release of 3.5 is a significant update following the release of 3.1 half a year ago, with Gemini 3.5 Flash focusing on speed and low cost...

Over the past week, the macro environment has undergone significant changes. US Treasury yields have risen very rapidly, with the 30-year yield already breaking through 5%. Moreover, long-term government bond yields in other developed countries such as Japan and the UK have also increased substantially. As the pricing anchor for risk-free assets, the rise in long-term interest rates severely dampens the appetite for risk assets. Therefore, the overall performance of US stocks at Friday's close and Chinese A-shares yesterday was relatively weak. However, there are also some sectors that can withstand the relatively high interest rates and continue to rise, which undoubtedly is the AI sector...

After the market closed yesterday afternoon, Tencent and Alibaba respectively announced their operating results for the first quarter. Looking at the overall revenue and profit performance for Q1, it wasn't particularly good, especially Alibaba's profit which fell significantly short of market expectations. Therefore, immediately after the results were released, the stock prices of Tencent and Alibaba fell. However, during the subsequent management conference calls, both companies emphasized the intensity and progress of their AI transformation. In Figures 2 and 3, I've created a visual summary of Alibaba's quarterly report and the key points from the conference call. Both companies emphasized on the call that they will increase AI capital expenditure in the future...

The South Korean stock market has benefited from the memory sector's performance over the past year. Driven by the two giants SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, it has experienced an epic bull market in the past year. The overall market capitalization of the South Korean stock market has successively surpassed that of Taiwan, China, and the UK in recent months, and according to the latest calculations, it has also surpassed Canada. If it continues to rise like this, it will soon surpass India. In fact, sectors other than semiconductors in the South Korean stock market are also seeing rising prosperity, such as shipbuilding and nuclear power. The frenzied rise of the South Korean stock market over the past year has also attracted capital chasing, especially leveraged funds...

The central bank released the gold purchase data for April, not only maintaining the trend of increasing holdings for 18 consecutive months but also significantly boosting the amount of gold purchased in April. In fact, the increase in holdings in March compared to February was already a sharp rise. This time, the amount of gold purchased in April compared to March went up another notch, with a direct addition of 260,000 ounces. The total increase in holdings for March and April is about five times the average of the previous few months. In the article about the central bank's gold purchase data in March, we already analyzed "The Central Bank Significantly Increased Gold Holdings in March!"...

Recently, Claude posted an announcement on its official website. Although it was purely text-based, it contained a wealth of information. The core event is a collaboration between Claude's parent company, Anthropic, and Elon Musk's SpaceX, where Anthropic purchased surplus computing power from SpaceX's xAI. Many people might wonder: Why does Musk's SpaceX have so much spare computing power? This is because Musk was actually one of the founders of OpenAI at the beginning, but later had disagreements with the current CEO, Sam Altman...

On the last day of the May Day holiday, let's not talk about the market. Instead, I'll share some grassroots observations from my trip to Yunnan during the holiday. First, let's talk about Dali's Erhai Lake. The weather wasn't great when we went this time; it was overcast, so we didn't get many good photos. Nearby, there are also many homestays themed around stock market trading training. But honestly, for those who are already financially independent, where you place your orders doesn't really matter. The climate here is nice, facing the sea, the market closes at 3 pm, you can go for a run by the lake, work out... it's pretty good...