洒家特地来赚刀乐

As expected, it's a bull market now. Only when the yield returned to 480% did it rank at the top. Previously, 250% was enough, and a few days ago, even at 360%, it was still at 2%. Option volatility is a bit high, leading to significant decay. In the future, it's better to diversify holdings, and the conviction to hold positions still needs to be strengthened.

Holding SK Hynix for a few months, the volatility has been unbearable. Sold off a large position just before the takeoff, missing it by a hair's breadth—should have waited for the earnings. I think the earnings were basically an open secret, why has it been so volatile? Switched to US stocks and US stock options, lost some on Microsoft, and the long call on Qualcomm was also entered too late, bought at a high point, and it's been volatile recently, held for two weeks. Bullish on the subsequent major cycle for CPUs, the demand for agent CPUs, and the constraints on TSMC's capacity. There aren't many CPU players, and the ARM architecture holds a significant advantage with multi-core performance and higher energy efficiency. The server ecosystem has developed and improved a lot over the years. The growth slope for server CPUs should be steeper, with both volume and price rising, bringing higher alpha returns to CPU manufacturers. Currently entering Qualcomm or a long call at this level isn't too high, very likely to profit. The current speculation still revolves around infrastructure suppliers, focusing on Intel, AMD, QCOM, and ARM.

Currently, policies are tightening, just go with the flow. Improving investment strategy and skill is the key, not complaining when you don't make money or lose it, or dissing and cursing when you lose by following someone's strategy—that's a childish mentality. There's a lot of negativity in society now. Of course, I believe the policy's starting point is definitely good, a result of weighing all aspects. The mindset for buying stocks should be to go with the flow, verifying your own understanding and getting results is the best. Here, there's only a small amount of capital, making or losing money, you still eat the same food and live the same life.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) has extremely high attention across the entire network, similar to the feeling of placing a bet and walking away. I feel like it will drop a bit and then pull up. In the long run, this position is definitely not high. Even if some points in the earnings report don't meet all forecast conditions, it's just using negative news to shake out weak hands. However, the recent series of changes are definitely positive. The unbundling from OpenAI benefits both parties. OpenAI can be used in other clouds to grab market share, which also indirectly increases investment returns. Microsoft can allocate more computing power to serve enterprise customers. As for a little more or less in the earnings report, it doesn't really change the big picture. The key to this transformation for Microsoft and OpenAI is to capture more customers.

$XIZHI TECH-P(01879.HK) The bank had no quota for the IPO subscription, got a small profit from winning the lottery, couldn't buy in with the grey market order, missed the opportunity, will look at it again if there's a chance in the future.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) Opened a position in Microsoft calls. OpenAI has had quite a few positive catalysts recently, including NVIDIA investment and usage by NVIDIA employees, price increases, and the Claude source code leak which benefits cloud computing power. Microsoft can integrate various models. Even the shorts are opening positions in Microsoft, so just waiting to reap the profits now 😂

Trump's latest poll https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pJ5SJeUgYJ25MiOhqAAtnQ

The recent taco deal and negotiations are more like two parties pulling and bargaining for the greatest benefit. That's exactly why it's a good time to position. If everything is already agreed upon, where would the low-priced chips come from? Position first. Trump will definitely have to compromise for his own political career.

The recent rise in A-shares and U.S. stocks originated from the March black swan event, where a large amount of chips were sold to optimists due to panic. The cooling of external conflicts, inflation not rising as much as war expectations, and the drop in oil prices led to an influx of dollars into capital markets, gold, silver, etc. Previously, rising oil prices caused countries to settle crude oil in dollars, leading to a strong dollar and driving down gold and silver prices. The expectation of interest rate cuts will follow the major direction before the war, unchanged, and will stabilize and lift asset prices in capital markets.

With the easing of the war, this black swan event is just a deep squat to gather chips in the upward trend. The logic remains unchanged, still AI infrastructure. You can also pay attention to AI applications. XPeng's profit turned positive this quarter. I know many companies, like robotexi, are making rapid progress in the Middle East and North America. The extensive use of autonomous driving has driven the closed-loop business model of computing power resources. Major cloud giants can appropriately lay out computing power leasing services. Many types of companies still have value depressions.

Computing power is still far from enough. It's like building a lot of railways and highways in the late 1990s, which many said were ineffective investments burning the country's money. In the 2000s, laying a lot of network cables, saying such speed was unnecessary. From today's perspective, internet speed is completely insufficient. 3G gave birth to mobile internet, 4G brought short videos and live streaming. What will the AI era bring? I think the answer is becoming clearer and clearer.

The current market focus is still on AI infrastructure, revolving around related themes. Based on the massive capital expenditures by North American giants, we analyze the value of AI infrastructure, the dividends of various modules, and technological advancements to select different companies. The simultaneous increase in volume and price driven by related materials, modules, business, and production capacity is used to elevate company valuations. The certainty in this area is greater than in other sectors.

Based on GPU interconnectivity, there's the scale-up and scale-out of optical modules, and the simultaneous increase in volume and price of hollow-core optical fiber based on transmission rates. Based on data storage, DRAM, HBM, and NAND are driving simultaneous increases in volume and price. We are currently in a cycle of undersupply, with most capacity expansion cycles lasting two years or more. The main contradictions remain the memory wall, power wall, and transmission wall. The positioning and value of related targets within the ecosystem determine their valuation. Currently, we are looking forward to Google's conference next week to see if it will bring advancements in memory pools and groundbreaking applications for all-optical switching. We are currently seeing some bearish views on the market, but if full marks are 10, I feel the infrastructure wave has only reached a level of 3-4. The giants' spending is still increasing, and suppliers are still expanding production. Continuously monitoring the capital expenditures and financial status of cloud giants ensures an unbeatable position.

$DONGFANG ELEC(01072.HK) also had a period of gains, but I didn't expect it to double after I sold it. I previously thought it could reach the target price of 40, but it rose too slowly while I was holding it, so I switched to something like Changfei Optical Fiber. Now that it has risen to this level, the upside should be limited.

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) My understanding of the decay in this leveraged long instrument is mainly due to the multiplier effect. For example, if the underlying stock rises 10% and then falls 10%, the underlying's return is (1+10%)×(1-10%)=0.99, a 1% loss. For a 2x leveraged instrument, it's (1+20%)×(1-20%)=0.96, a 4% loss. This stock maintained a rhythm of a big up day immediately followed by a big down day from late February to early April, causing the underlying to hit new highs while this is still 20% away from its peak.

What other factors do you think cause decay? 🤣

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) The net asset value on April 13th was 35.22, but it only reached 35.44 at yesterday's close after a big rally. Is it undervalued? Based on yesterday's gain, plus the underlying stock's 5% increase today, a further 10% rise here should get it to 44 yuan 😂🤣

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) Looking at the order book for the next few years, and the fact that memory prices will remain high and continue to rise, with capacity expansion taking two to three years, Hynix's P/E ratio this year is only 3 based on the current stock price. This means that at this price, the company's profits will cover its market cap within three years. Some say memory is a cyclical stock, but the current demand is driven by AI, and the supply-demand dynamics are clear. No one can say for sure how long the AI cycle will last, but at least for the next few years, capital expenditure will continue to expand. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) revenue is projected to reach one trillion dollars, a massive increase from current levels.

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) Finally back, continuing to hold, can't help but sing a song😂

I want to face the wind and stay a few more steps

How can I bear the cold wind blowing on my pain

I say, Cold Mountain, don't cry

I'll take you out

I offer a toast and take you out

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) In order to buy you, I sold the Changfei Fiber that had tripled in value and moved the funds here. This past month has really been indescribable, only persistence remains. 😂

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) continued to average down today. Those short essays from Google are just like last year's DeepSeek not needing computing power. That paper said that key-value storage doesn't affect the overall usage scale; you only need to look at orders and spot storage prices. Currently, SK Hynix's P/E ratio is only 10, not even counting the big surge in storage prices over the past few months. The P/E ratio for the next few quarters could likely drop to 5-7.

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) Hold firmly until the second half of the year, the future is immeasurable, although it was disrupted by Trump's rhetoric before.

$Direxion Daily Korea Bull 3x Shares ETF(KORU.US) What underlying stocks does this ETF mainly hold? The war has caused the Japanese and Korean stock markets to crash quite a bit.

$DONGFANG ELEC(01072.HK) always fluctuated when I held you, but it kept rising after I sold. If I hadn't been shaken out by the volatility with my heavy A-share position in you, I would have made 6 million now.

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) wiped out half of my position in just two or three days. Oh heavens above, why do you treat me so unkindly? I added a bit more yesterday. When will it hit a new high?