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melph

melph

ReturnsTop 7%
Rate Of Return
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melph
melph
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M
melph2 days ago, 02:42 AM

$Keppel DC Reit(AJBU.SG)

Context: AJBU is an income-focused REIT for me. Data centres provide essential infrastructure and recurring rental income, but REITs remain sensitive to interest rates because higher borrowing costs can pressure distributions and valuations.

My trade: I added more shares recently, building on my existing position. The lower price gave me an opportunity to increase my exposure to the dividend income.

Takeaway: I’m mainly looking for sustainable distributions over the long term. If interest rates ease, REITs could get some support from lower financing costs but I still want to see AJBU improve its underlying performance before adding even more.

$Keppel DC Reit.SG
2025.04.28 ~ 2026.09.18 All orders
Cumulative P/L24.51 (SGD)+2%
2025.04.282026.09.18
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melphSep 18 at 08:59 AM

$Constellation Brands(STZ.US)

Context: STZ caught my attention because it has a portfolio of well-known beer brands, including Modelo and Corona. Another reason I became interested was seeing Berkshire Hathaway build a position in STZ.

My trade: I bought STZ in several batches as the share price declined and later took profits when it recovered. I’m now looking back at what I learned from the trade.

Takeaway: One lesson is that following a respected investor can be a useful starting point but it shouldn’t replace doing my own research. I also learned that a strong brand doesn’t automatically mean strong near-term performance. Valuation, earnings trends and changing consumer demand still matter.

$Constellation Brands.US
2025.05.07 ~ 2026.09.17 All orders
Cumulative P/L229.30 (USD)+20%
2025.05.072026.09.17
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melphSep 16 at 11:58 AM

$NetLink NBN Tr(CJLU.SG)

Context: NetLink NBN Trust is one of my holdings for dividends. Its fibre network provides essential infrastructure in Singapore, giving the business relatively predictable recurring revenue.

My trade: I added more to my existing position yesterday as the share price came down. I’m building this position with the dividend income in mind rather than expecting strong capital growth.

Takeaway: For me, the attraction is the recurring distributions. I am building some investments in my portfolio where the main objective is generating steady income over the long term rather than relying entirely on share-price appreciation.

$NetLink NBN Tr.SG
2025.07.07 ~ 2026.09.16 All orders
Cumulative P/L24.55 (SGD)+4%
2025.07.072026.09.16
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melphSep 15 at 06:57 AM

$ELF Beauty(ELF.US)

Context: Since I sold my ELF position on 31 August, the stock has edged slightly lower. Meanwhile, the company continues to highlight growth opportunities through rhode and international expansion.

My trade: I had already exited before these updates, so I’m now watching the developments from the sidelines.

Takeaway: I’m still comfortable with my decision to sell, especially as the stock has declined slightly since then. Of course, ELF could still rebound and rise much further but I’m at peace with potentially missing out on future gains since I would not classify ELF as a company with a durable competitive advantage.

$ELF Beauty.US
2025.04.30 ~ 2026.09.14 All orders
Cumulative P/L396.74 (USD)+81%
2025.04.302026.09.14
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melphSep 14 at 01:50 PM

$Frasers Cpt Tr(J69U.SG)

Context: Frasers Centrepoint Trust has been a relatively steady REIT holding but its share price has recently weakened after trading in a higher range.

My trade: I started building a position last year and added more today. The position is currently slightly underwater but the decline gave me an opportunity to lower my average entry.

Takeaway: Interest rates are important for REITs. Higher rates increase borrowing costs, reduce distribution income and make bonds more attractive compared with REITs. Will continue watching interest-rate trends, distribution income and the quality of FCT’s properties as part of my dividend-focused portfolio.

$Frasers Cpt Tr.SG
2025.07.01 ~ 2026.09.14 All orders
Cumulative P/L-1.99 (SGD)0%
2025.07.012026.09.14
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melphSep 4 at 12:58 PM

AVGO delivered strong earningswith AI semiconductor revenue and forward guidance showing impressive growth. However, the high expectations and valuation leave little room for disappointment if AI spending eventually slows.

C
Captain's Watch
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Snowflake Soars 16% as Wall Street Rallies on Waller's Dovish Turn

Snowflake surged 16.55% on a blowout earnings beat, and Fed Governor Waller's dovish tilt sent September rate-hike odds tumbling. All three US indices closed up more than 1%. Tesla's Cybercab official...

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melphSep 4 at 02:28 AM

$Lululemon(LULU.US)

Context: Once upon a time LULU was a strong growth story (and I like the brand) but the stock has struggled as sales and brand momentum weakened. The latest results showed further pressure on the business.

My trade: I sold my position earlier in the year after a rebound for a small profit. Looking back, I’m glad I didn’t try to hold through the deterioration.

Takeaway: This experience reinforced an important lesson for me: for long-term investing, I want to focus on businesses with strong and durable moats. A good brand can still lose momentum and I would rather concentrate my long-term holdings in businesses with stronger competitive advantages.

$Lululemon.US
2025.05.08 ~ 2026.09.03 All orders
Cumulative P/L22.57 (USD)+2%
2025.05.082026.09.03
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melphSep 3 at 03:14 PM

Broadcom's stock dropped because its future sales forecast slightly missed expectations, showing that investors now demand perfect results from chipmakers. Meanwhile, Dell's stock jumped because it beat profit estimates, raised its full-year forecast, and reported a huge $95 billion backlog in AI server orders alongside booming corporate PC sales.

C
Captain's Watch
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Dell Soars 16% as Broadcom Falls Despite 86% Growth

Dell surged 15.8% Wednesday as its AI-server refresh story kept building. Broadcom fell despite revenue growing 86% and AI chip sales more than tripling — its guidance simply wasn't enough. A weak ADP...

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melphSep 3 at 05:08 AM

$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Context: AVGO has been quite volatile this year with a big rally followed by a sharp pullback. I took some profits during the earlier run-up.

My trade: Before last night’s earnings, I added back a small portion. The results were strong, especially the continued acceleration in AI semiconductor revenue.

Takeaway: The market’s reaction may be cautious but the underlying numbers remain impressive. I’m not trying to time the bottom. I’m happy to rebuild the position gradually while watching whether the strong AI demand can translate into sustained growth.

$Broadcom.US
2025.12.22 ~ 2026.09.02 All orders
Cumulative P/L731.50 (USD)+22%
2025.12.222026.09.02
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melphSep 2 at 01:14 PM

$OCBC Bank(O39.SG)

Context: OCBC has been a pleasant surprise in my portfolio. I bought during a period when the stock was much less expensive, and it has since had a strong run.

My trade: I’m still holding my position and enjoying both the capital appreciation and dividends. I haven’t felt the need to chase the stock higher.

Takeaway: Sometimes the best trades are simply buying a good business at a reasonable price and giving it time. After a strong run, I’ll keep an eye on valuation, but for now I’m happy to let it run.

$OCBC Bank.SG
2025.05.13 ~ 2026.09.02 All orders
Cumulative P/L3328.59 (SGD)+89%
2025.05.132026.09.02
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melphSep 1 at 09:47 AM

My call: US$389

Why: AI semiconductor demand remains very strong with custom AI chips and networking driving rapid growth. I think another earnings beat and strong guidance could push the stock higher, but expectations are already elevated. The key risk is that even good results may not be enough if investors want an even stronger AI growth outlook.

C
Captain's Watch
🎯 Broadcom Earnings Challenge — Guess the close and win rewards!

$Broadcom(AVGO.US) reports Q3 FY2026 after the US close on Wednesday 2 September — the numbers land around 04:00 SGT Thursday morning. ⏰Nvidia already beat the earnings estimates. Broadcom trades abou...

LONGBRIDGE BROADCOM EARNINGS CHALLENGE Where does AVGO.US close on Thursday 3 Se
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melphSep 1 at 08:21 AM

$ServiceNow(NOW.US)

Context: NOW has had a strong recovery this year, rising from around US$83 to above US$150. My trades are currently up about 44%.

My trade: I built the position during the weakness, buying at US$108.50 and US$89.50. I’m still holding and haven’t taken profits despite the strong recovery.

Takeaway: The next question is whether strong AI adoption can translate into sustained growth without the valuation becoming too stretched. I’m happy to hold for now but will also keep an eye on growth, margins and customer demand.

$ServiceNow.US
2026.01.05 ~ 2026.08.31 All orders
Cumulative P/L449.71 (USD)+44%
2026.01.052026.08.31
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melphAug 31 at 03:33 PM

$ELF Beauty(ELF.US)

Context: ELF has recovered strongly from its low of around US$50, climbing back above US$100 after a very sharp sell-off.

My trade: I took a second round of profits. With ELF being one of my lower-moat holdings, I’m more willing to lock in gains after a strong recovery rather than hold indefinitely.

Takeaway: I’m using my moat ranking to guide my decisions. I plan to hold wide-moat stocks longer term, while taking profits more actively from lower-moat names when the opportunity arises.

$ELF Beauty.US
2025.04.29 ~ 2026.08.28 All orders
Cumulative P/L362.73 (USD)+74%
2025.04.292026.08.28
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melphAug 26 at 09:15 AM

NVDA prediction: I expect NVDA to close around US$223 after earnings, assuming another strong beat and solid guidance. The market already expects excellent results, so the reaction will depend heavily on forward demand. A major upside surprise could push it above US$230 while cautious guidance could trigger a sharp pullback despite strong headline numbers.

I think a key issue is AI demand: management needs to reassure investors that hyperscaler spending can continue at current levels.

C
Captain's Watch
FeaturedNvidia Earnings Challenge — Guess the price and win cash rewards!

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) reports Q2 FY2027 after the US close on 26 August, which lands at Singapore Thursday morning. 🔥The stock has fallen seven sessions in a row 🥶, its longest losing streak since 2022. Th...

1 LONGBRIDGE NVDA Earnings Community( Challenge Vote,comment,post — - win 5 SGD
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melphAug 26 at 05:50 AM

$Defiance AI & Power Infrastructure ETF(AIPO.US)

Context: AIPO gives exposure to companies benefiting from the growing demand for AI infrastructure and power. The ETF has been volatile, falling from above US$33 to around US$26 before recovering.

My trade: I built my position gradually, buying shares at US$29.40, US$28.40 and US$26.50 so far. I prefer scaling in rather than trying to predict the bottom. Hope to average down even more.

Takeaway: AI needs enormous amounts of power and infrastructure so the theme is attractive. But AIPO is more speculative than my wide-moat holdings, and I’ll manage the position accordingly. High valuations of most of the companies in this ETF is the main risk I think. Also pace of AI investment over the next few years may change.

$Defiance AI & Power Infrastructure ETF.US
2026.06.25 ~ 2026.08.25 All orders
Cumulative P/L17.76 (USD)+2%
2026.06.252026.08.25
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melphAug 25 at 12:51 AM

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Context: MSFT has gained about 29% since February, recovering strongly from around US$352 and recently reaching above US$500. The move reflects renewed confidence in its AI and cloud businesses.

My trade: I bought during the earlier weakness and have held through the recovery. I’m not looking to chase the recent surge but I’m also not rushing to take profits.

Takeaway: MSFT is another one of my wide-moat holdings so I’m comfortable holding it longer term. The big question is whether its huge AI capex spending will generate enough revenue and cash flow to justify the investment. Azure is growing strongly but the payoff needs to keep catching up with the spending.

$Microsoft.US
2026.01.07 ~ 2026.08.24 All orders
Cumulative P/L651.91 (USD)+29%
2026.01.072026.08.24
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melphAug 24 at 01:44 AM

Context: TMO has been on a strong run, gaining about 34% since April and recently reaching around US$629. The steady climb reflects confidence in its healthcare and life sciences businesses.

$Thermo Fisher Scentific(TMO.US)

My trade: I bought TMO around the April lows and have held through the recovery. I have not taken profits yet, as I consider TMO a stronger-moat stock that I’m more comfortable holding for longer.

Takeaway: TMO benefits from its scale, broad product range and strong position in life sciences. Will continue holding while watching valuation and any slowdown in research and healthcare spending.

$Thermo Fisher Scentific.US
2026.03.24 ~ 2026.08.21 All orders
Cumulative P/L483.06 (USD)+34%
2026.03.242026.08.21
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melphAug 21 at 02:01 AM

$ELF Beauty(ELF.US)

Context: ELF had a huge run, reaching around US$146 before falling sharply to about US$50. The stock has since recovered strongly from its lows.

My trade: I took profits once after the earlier rally and later bought back around the lows. I have not taken the second round of profits yet. I rank my holdings by moat, and ELF is not one of my wide-moat stocks, so I’m more open to taking profits when the opportunity comes.

Takeaway: I plan to hold my wide-moat stocks longer term, while managing lower-moat stocks more actively. For ELF, competition, consumer spending and high growth expectations remain key risks.

$ELF Beauty.US
2025.05.30 ~ 2026.08.20 All orders
Cumulative P/L331.58 (USD)+68%
2025.05.302026.08.20
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melphAug 20 at 04:28 AM

$Eli Lilly(LLY.US)

Context: Eli Lilly has had a strong run, gaining about 30% since March as investors remain optimistic about its diabetes and obesity drug business. The stock has also recently reached new highs.

My trade: I closed my position last night after the strong rally. Rather than chase the stock higher, I’m happy to lock in the gains.

Takeaway: I know Lilly remains a strong growth story but expectations are also high. Also, pharma stocks face risks from drug pricing pressure, competition, regulation, and the uncertainty of developing new treatments.

$Eli Lilly.US
2026.02.03 ~ 2026.08.19 All orders
Cumulative P/L294.99 (USD)+30%
2026.02.032026.08.19
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melphAug 8 at 09:59 AM

NLR gives exposure to companies involved in nuclear energy and uranium, making it an interesting way to benefit from growing demand for reliable, low-carbon power. The nuclear sector is gaining attention as countries expand energy security and data centres increase electricity demand. The main risks are uranium price volatility, project delays, regulation, and the capital required to build new nuclear capacity.

melph 2026-08-0817:58:16 VanEck Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF NLR P/L% -3.62% Mar
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melphAug 7 at 02:11 AM

ELF delivered another impressive quarter, beating expectations on both revenue and earnings while raising its full-year guidance. Strong international expansion and continued demand for its affordable products reinforced confidence in the business. Even so, expectations remain high. The key risks are slowing consumer spending, tougher competition, and maintaining its rapid growth as the company scales. I will be watching whether management can continue growing market share, protect profit margins, and prove that recent acquisitions and international expansion can drive sustainable long-term growth.

melph 2026-08-0622:55:19 ELF Beauty ELF P/L% +75.69% Market price 94.750 USD, Co
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