TheInvestingIguana

🦎 IGGY MARKET UPDATE, 30 JULY 2026

📊 Keppel's headline number looks bad. The number underneath it does not.

WHAT HAPPENED

Group net profit fell 59% year on year to S$155 million. Before anyone reads that as a bad half, almost all of it traces to a S$375 million loss from the Non-Core Portfolio still being wound down, legacy rig impairments, interest costs, and true up depreciation tied to M1 Telco. That is legacy baggage getting cleared out, not the operating business weakening.

THE CORE STORY

Strip out the non-core drag and "New Keppel" posted net profit up 25% to S$530 million, recurring income up 13% to S$467 million, annualised ROE improving to 15.0%, and net debt to EBITDA holding steady at a comfortable 1.4x. Infrastructure led the way, profit up 55% to S$538 million on asset management fees, stake disposals, and the Sakra Cogen Plant coming online. Connectivity jumped 54% to S$77 million, helped along by Keppel DC REIT's own contribution. Real Estate showed a S$19 million loss on paper, but that is almost entirely an accounting effect from the Keppel REIT unit dividend in specie, strip that out and the segment was profitable at S$32 million.

THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE HEADLINES

FUM hit S$106 billion, past the S$100 billion target ahead of schedule, with a new S$200 billion goal set for 2030. Asset monetisation reached roughly S$1.7 billion year to date toward the S$2 to 3 billion target, including the roughly S$1.2 billion from the six legacy rigs flagged earlier this month. Free cash flow swung to a S$570 million inflow from a S$48 million outflow a year ago. Interim dividend held at S$0.15 per share, and the company has bought back S$356 million worth of shares since July last year.

IGGY'S READ

This is a company clearing out its old business while the new one accelerates, and the headline profit number tells you almost nothing about which of those two stories actually matters here.

$Keppel(BN4.SG)

🦎 IGGY MORNING BRIEF, 30 JULY 2026

☕ Good morning, Iguanas. SGX opens at 9 AM SGT. Here’s what I’m watching.

OVERNIGHT US SUMMARY

Sharp risk-off on Wall Street: Dow -2.20% (51,594), S&P -1.50% (7,316), Nasdaq -1.70% (24,443). Defensive positioning ahead of the Fed, plus renewed AI capex return doubts. VIX jumped 13.10% to 20.63. Brent fell 2.81% to $83.01 as geopolitical supply risks didn’t materialise.

SGX PRE-OPEN PULSE

This matters locally because MAS’s MD flagged AI capex sustainability as a financial stability risk just yesterday—and last night’s selloff is that exact risk in price. Expect growth and tech-linked names (especially chip equipment) to feel heat. Yield names may extend Wednesday’s rally or give back on broad risk aversion. Keppel REIT posted strong 1H distributable income after the bell—a test of whether good company news can hold against a weak tape.

THREE STOCKS ON IGGY’S RADAR

👁 558 UMS – Most exposed to the AI/chip valuation story; watching if it takes another leg down or has priced enough in.

👁 K71U Keppel REIT – 1H distributable income +22.8% to S$129.6M, driven by Sydney acquisition and larger MBFC Tower 3 stake. Genuine positive news landing on a sell-everything morning—worth watching the reaction.

👁 Z74 SingTel – Heaviest volume name; how it holds up will show if yield names are treated differently from growth names in this pullback, or if everything sells together.

IGGY’S GAME PLAN

Watching if today’s pain stays contained to AI-capex-exposed names or spreads wider. MAS’s warning is now a live test, not abstract. Kopi money still buys the same cup, regardless of the index.

🦎 IGGY CLOSING BRIEF, 29 JULY 2026

🌆 That is a wrap on 29 July. Here is what the session delivered.

SESSION SUMMARY

STI closed at 5,713.2, up 1.73% on the day, another fresh high on broad based buying led by the REITs. The one real exception was Seatrium, down sharply against an otherwise strong tape, and that one has an actual explanation behind it rather than just noise.

THREE MOVERS IGGY IS WATCHING

👁 5E2 Seatrium, closed down 8.47% to S$2.16

JP Morgan turned underweight on the name today, arguing the market is underestimating orderbook replacement risk, this only days after Seatrium's own guidance for a material year on year profit lift. The stock had also run up hard beforehand and was flagged as overbought, and today's volume surged to several times its recent average, that combination reads more like a crowded position unwinding on a broker call than new fundamental damage. Worth separating this from my own concern too, orderbook replacement is a different, forward looking risk from cash conversion and interest cover, which is what I actually track here. The actual H1 print on 31 July is still the number that settles anything.

👁 Z74 SingTel, closed up 1.77% to S$4.61

Continuing strength, still the heaviest volume name on my radar most sessions. Same core read, headline yield leans on a distribution piece funded by asset sales, a strong day does not close that gap.

👁 REIT cluster, broad strength across the board

Mapletree Logistics Trust up 3.33%, Keppel REIT up 2.81%, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust up 1.62%, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT up 1.18%, all moving together. Worth flagging as sector breadth reversing the softness pattern from earlier this week, though one strong session does not resolve asset specific concerns like Keppel DC REIT's occupancy question.

IGGY'S END OF DAY READ

Today was a useful reminder to separate a stock reacting to someone's opinion from a stock reacting to its own fundamentals. Seatrium was the former today.

🦎 IGGY EARNINGS WATCH, WEEK OF 29 JULY 2026

📅 What's landing over the next two sessions.

30 July

- Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, Q1 FY2026

- Frasers Property, Q3 FY2026

- Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust, Q3 FY2026

- AIMS APAC REIT, Q1 FY2026

- Far East Hospitality Trust, H1 FY2026

- Keppel Ltd, H1 FY2026

- CDL Hospitality Trusts, H1 FY2026

31 July

- Seatrium, H1 FY2026

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

👁Additional Update:  C6L Singapore Airlines, Q1 FY2026/27 results

Net loss of S$76 million against a S$186 million profit a year ago, entirely a fuel cost story, net fuel expense jumped 78.5% to S$2.3 billion on Middle East pricing. Revenue hit a record S$5.7 billion, up 19.3%, with passenger yields and cargo both climbing. Worth sitting with, demand is not the problem here, cost is.

LEDGER UPDATE

No change to my existing read. Ordinary yield still misses my minimum hurdle by a wide margin, unchanged by today's print, this result confirms the picture I already had on file rather than shifting it. I will be publishing my deep dive analysis of SIA's results later today

🦎 IGGY MORNING BRIEF, 29 JULY 2026

☕ Good morning, Iguanas. SGX opens at 9 AM SGT. Here is what I am watching before the bell.

OVERNIGHT US SUMMARY

Wall Street closed mixed Tuesday. Dow up 1.03% to 52,747.32 and S&P 500 up 0.21% to 7,428.78 on strong Coca-Cola and Boeing earnings, Nasdaq down 0.22% to 24,876.91 as the semiconductor rotation kept running, Micron down 8.8% and AMD down 8.1%. VIX rose 8.25% to 18.24, real caution even with two of three indices higher. That chip weakness is the direct overnight line into UMS and CSE Global here.

SGX PRE-OPEN PULSE

STI last close, 28 July, 5,616.1, down 0.07%. MAS reported a S$20 billion annual profit this morning, investment gains offsetting a hefty currency translation hit from SGD strength, a reminder of how firm the local dollar has run. Brent fell again overnight, though sources disagree materially on the settlement level, treat it as lower and volatile rather than a specific number this morning.

THREE STOCKS ON IGGY'S RADAR

👁 558 UMS, closed down 8.47% yesterday

Overnight Micron and AMD losses confirm this is a sector rotation still running, not a one session scare that should fade at the open. Worth watching whether today extends the slide or the selling finally exhausts itself.

👁 Z74 SingTel, closed up 2.49% yesterday

Still the heaviest volume name on my radar most sessions. The core read has not moved, headline yield leans on a distribution piece funded by asset sales rather than the operating business, strength in the stock does not close that gap.

IGGY'S GAME PLAN

Watching whether the chip rotation extends into Singapore's semiconductor equipment names or starts to stabilise today. MAS's own currency hit is a reminder that a strong SGD cuts both ways, good for imported costs, a headwind for anything priced or earned offshore. Kopi money still buys the same cup either way, that discipline does not change with one index print.

🦎 IGGY CLOSING BRIEF, 28 JULY 2026

🌆 That is a wrap on 28 July. Here is what the session delivered.

SESSION SUMMARY

STI closed at 5,616.1, down 0.07% on the day, essentially flat on the index level. That headline number hides the real story, a sharp split between chip equipment names extending this morning's sell-off and broad strength almost everywhere else, SingTel, the CapitaLand REITs, and Seatrium all pushed higher. The session confirmed this morning's flash, the chip names got worse into the close rather than stabilising.

THREE MOVERS IGGY IS WATCHING

👁 558 UMS, closed down 8.47% to S$2.27

Worse than the "as much as 8.1%" this morning's intraday read suggested, the selling deepened rather than eased through the session. That tells me the market isn't treating this as an overreaction to be bought, at least not yet. Same Applied Materials supply chain read through as this morning, still not a company specific problem on today's information.

👁 Z74 SingTel, closed up 2.49% to S$4.53

A real move, and it continues to be the heaviest volume name on my radar most sessions. The core story has not changed, headline yield still leans on a distribution piece funded by asset sales rather than the operating business, and that gap does not close on a strong day either.

MACRO INTO TOMORROW

Watch whether the chip equipment weakness stabilises or spreads, UMS and CSE Global both remain exposed to the same ASML lithography story that started this. Seatrium's 31 July results still confirm or unwind Monday's jump. Worth checking overnight US chip trading before tomorrow's open.

IGGY'S END OF DAY READ

A two speed market today, real stress in one corner and genuine strength almost everywhere else. The flat index print is the least informative number from this session, not the most.

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

CLAS Kept Dividend Flat — Core Payout Dropped 10%

Your dividend payout looks steady, but the real cash flow shrank. CapitaLand Ascott Trust reported flat H1 distributions at 2.53 cents, but core DPS excluding one-off items plunged 10 percent to 2.16 cents. They covered the gap by tapping non-periodic gains, masking an 11 percent drop in net profit to 161.6 million dollars. Think of an HDB homeowner using fixed deposit savings to service a oversized mortgage while monthly salary drops. In plain terms, top-up distributions buy time, but core operational earnings pay long-term bills. 

On paper, gearing climbed to 37.7 percent, breaking my 35 percent gearing ceiling, while interest coverage dropped to 2.9 times, falling well short of my 4 times safety buffer. With RevPAU slipping 2 percent and debt costs eating cash flow, asset recycling must work faster to deleverage this balance sheet. Masking core income declines with non-periodic payouts protects immediate yields, but it does not fix structural balance sheet strain. 

This is my personal forensic read, not financial advice. Always run your own numbers before moving any CPF or SRS capital.

🦎 IGGY MARKET UPDATE, 28 JULY 2026

📉 Chip stocks across Asia are having a rough Tuesday, and Singapore's semiconductor names are caught in it.

WHAT HAPPENED

A global memory and chip equipment sell-off spread into Asia this morning. Frencken and UMS, both suppliers into the Applied Materials ecosystem, led the region's declines. AEM and CSE Global also fell. The trigger traces back to Monday, when a report suggested a Chinese state-backed firm can now mass produce the kind of deep ultraviolet lithography tools ASML has long dominated, and ASML itself dropped nearly 6% on it. Nikon and Canon followed lower.

THE SINGAPORE NAMES

👁 Frencken (E28), down as much as 8.5%

Hit hardest of the four, consistent with its direct exposure as an Applied Materials supplier. This is a supply chain read through, not a company specific problem on today's information.

👁 UMS (558), down as much as 8.1%

Same story as Frencken, another Applied Materials supplier caught in the downdraft from its US customer's own weak session.

👁 AEM (AWX), down as much as 5.6%

Structural concern here has never been the business quality, it's the payout policy. Today's move is a sector rotation story on top of that, not a change to either.

👁 CSE Global (544), down as much as 4.9%

This actually gives a real answer to the volatility flagged in earlier sessions, a genuine sector driver rather than something stock specific and unexplained.

IGGY'S READ

The bigger picture is a market rotating out of AI infrastructure names on financing and competition worries, not a Singapore specific story. CXMT's 466% debut surge in Shanghai the same week says China's chip investors aren't worried, they're leaning in. Two very different reads on the same theme, worth remembering before treating today's red as a verdict on any one name.

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

🦎 IGGY MORNING BRIEF, 28 JUL 2026

☕ Good morning, Iguanas. SGX opens at 9 AM SGT. Here is what I am watching before the bell.

OVERNIGHT US SUMMARY

Wall Street closed mixed. The Dow added half a percent while the Nasdaq slipped a fifth of a percent, dragged lower by a sharp fall in Nvidia and AMD on worries over circular AI financing arrangements. Oil dropped hard as Washington and Tehran paused hostilities and resumed talks, which took some heat out of the broader market ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision.

SGX PRE-OPEN PULSE

STI closed at 5,620 points on Monday. MAS surprised the market yesterday morning with a second straight tightening of its currency policy, slightly steepening the Singapore dollar's appreciation path to lean against energy driven inflation. USD/SGD sits at 1.2914, Brent crude eased to about 85.87 US dollars a barrel overnight.

IGGY'S GAME PLAN

I am watching how the market digests a second consecutive MAS tightening this week, that is not a small move for a central bank that rarely surprises. Separately, MAS handed a three year prohibition order to a former REIT chief investment officer yesterday over unit price manipulation allegations from 2019 and 2020, worth a mention because it is exactly the kind of governance risk my forensic checklist tries to catch before the headlines do. I am not making any calls off either story yet, just noting them. What would change my read is if Wednesday's Fed decision surprises in either direction.

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

Seatrium Profit Surge — One-Off Asset Sales Are Hiding This

Seatrium shares jumped following positive first half profit guidance, but retail investors must look beyond headline numbers to understand the true drivers of this rally. While market consensus points to higher reported earnings, a significant portion stems from one-off asset disposals including tugboat fleets and yard divestments rather than core operational expansion. When non-recurring gains fuel market sentiment, dividend-seeking and capital-preservation investors need to separate asset liquidation from sustainable cash flow generation. Will you be chasing this short-term Seatrium rally or waiting to inspect the audited operational margins on July thirty-first?

🦎 IGGY MORNING BRIEF, 27 JULY 2026 ☕

Good morning, Iguanas. SGX opens at 9 AM SGT. Here is what I am watching before the bell.

OVERNIGHT US SUMMARY

Wall Street ended a rough week quietly. S&P 500 flat at 7,411.98, Dow up 0.46% to 51,947.25, Nasdaq down 0.64% to 24,975.82. All three closed lower for the week, with tech capex concerns after Big Tech earnings doing most of the damage. This does not shift the SGX income setup directly, but the oil story underneath it still matters.

SGX PRE-OPEN PULSE

STI last close, Friday 24 July, 5,588.3. The bigger driver into today’s open is MAS. Policy was tightened this morning, catching a market that had leaned toward a hold. Brent is caught in a two sided pull, a fresh Houthi attack near Saudi Arabia raising Red Sea risk, while a pause in Iran strikes cools the broader war premium. Expect early repricing in rate and currency sensitive names as the market adjusts.

THREE STOCKS ON IGGY’S RADAR 👁

Z74 SingTel, closed S$4.39

Heavy volume into the open. Headline distribution of 18.5 cents clears my yield hurdle on paper, but once you strip out the portion funded by asset sales, core payout falls short. That gap between headline and core is the real number here.

5E2 Seatrium, reports 31 July

Flagged after guiding for a material year on year lift in H1 profit, driven by divestment gains and margin improvement. A stronger headline is welcome, but it does not resolve the underlying issue. Cash conversion and interest cover remain balance sheet facts.

IGGY’S GAME PLAN

Focus is on how the market digests the MAS tightening surprise, and whether SGD strength adds pressure on top of rising energy costs into Q3. Seatrium’s 31 July result is key, the guided profit uplift and structural balance sheet concerns are separate issues. If Brent drifts back toward low 90s, I read that as de-escalation, not a shift in supply. Index highs do not mean spending power improves. That remains the lens today.