TheInvestingIguana

Anthropic Lost $42 Billion. Only About $8 Billion Came From Running the Business.

Wed 30 Sep 2026 | Evening

The Numbers

Reuters reports, citing Anthropic's IPO prospectus, a net loss of nearly US$42 billion in 2025. Roughly US$34 billion of that was a valuation-related accounting charge. The operating loss still widened to US$8.06 billion from US$2.98 billion in 2024. Anthropic had US$20.28 billion in cash and short-term investments against US$518 billion of future cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations, and nearly a quarter of 2025 revenue came from two customers. Today's video asks which of those figures is firmest: the loss, the obligations, or the customers.

My Personal Take

My first reaction to US$42 billion was that it had to mean the business was failing. What I almost missed is that US$34 billion of it is an accounting charge tied to valuation, which leaves an operating loss of US$8.06 billion. This morning I wrote about giving CDL credit for cash that has not arrived. The same discipline applies here, in reverse: the US$518 billion is the contracted side of this story, and the customer spending behind it is the side I cannot see. I do not know the period those obligations run over, so I cannot say how large they are in any one year. A disclosed schedule by year would change how I read this. 🦖

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Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

Maybank Reiterates BUY on CSE Global at S$2.25 After S$190.5 Million of US Contracts

Wed 30 Sep 2026 | Analyst Update

$CSE Global(544.SG) 

The Numbers

Maybank Research reiterated its BUY on CSE Global with a S$2.25 target price after two new US contracts worth a combined S$190.5 million. The first covers power-distribution centres and integrated electrical and control systems for the Calcasieu Pass 2 LNG expansion in Louisiana, executed from 2026 to 2028. The second is a follow-on for the Cheyenne Power Hub in Wyoming, supplying power-distribution infrastructure for an adjacent data centre in 2026 to 2027.

Maybank expects a stronger 2H26 as CSE's new facility reaches a monthly run rate of US$20 million to US$23 million, and says resolving the copper-supply bottleneck could potentially double that run rate. It also forecasts capacity more than tripling by 2027 to 2028, another data-centre customer by 1Q27, and an AWS order of roughly US$250 million to US$350 million for FY27, which it expects could arrive by December. The contracts are secured. The AWS order and the new client are Maybank forecasts, not company-announced orders.

My Personal Take

My first reaction to S$190.5 million was that it was the news. What I almost missed is that the forecast in the same note is larger: the low end of Maybank's AWS range, US$250 million, is about S$320 million at Tuesday's 1.2780 USD/SGD, and no company has announced it. It took me a while to keep the signed and the forecast apart in my head, because both sit under one BUY. A company announcement of the AWS order would change how I weigh this, and so would December passing without one. 🦖

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

MAS S$20 Million for Market Makers, Explained

Tue 29 Sep 2026 | Midday

The Numbers

MAS announced S$1.45 billion for fund managers and S$20 million for market makers today. Only the smaller number reaches your trading account. The S$20 million pays firms to quote tighter bid-ask spreads on around 80 small and mid-cap stocks until 31 December 2028. The spread is a cost on every trade: a 2% gap on a S$10,000 purchase costs about S$200 round-trip, against S$100 at 1%. Today's episode covers what the grant does to that gap, and why it is not a price safety net under those stocks.

My Personal Take

My first reaction to the S$1.45 billion was that it was the headline and the S$20 million was a footnote. What I almost missed is that the footnote is the only line that touches a retail trading screen. It took me a while to connect a grant paid to firms with a cost I pay myself, because the spread does not show up as a fee. I keep coming back to the S$200 on a S$10,000 purchase, since a gap like that sits unnoticed. A published figure for how much the spreads actually narrow would change how I read this. 🦖

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/yKTYlyKw59Y

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Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

US Yields Near 5.23%, Brent Above US$105, and CDL's Three-Year Plan

Tue 29 Sep 2026 | Morning

The Numbers

Overnight in the US, the Dow closed at 51,481.51 (-0.67%), the S&P 500 at 7,683.69 (-0.77%) and the Nasdaq at 26,820.38 (-0.92%). The VIX rose 8.07% to 16.07. Kiplinger attributes the slide to the US-Iran war, bond yield pressure and AI anxiety, with the 10-year Treasury near 5.22% to 5.23%. Brent settled at US$105.29 (+0.93%), and BT reports the US and Iran will hold separate talks with mediators, both pessimistic about a deal before the midterms. USD/SGD is 1.2774. The STI closed Monday at 5,729.02 (+0.31%), and SGX opens at 9am.

$CityDev(C09.SG) 

Two Singapore items I'm reading against the balance sheet. City Developments (CDL) is Zone 5, Red Zone: interest coverage of 0.99x on the headline reading (my own calculation gives 0.84x) against a 4.0x floor, net gearing of 69% (FY24) against a 35% ceiling, and 15.7x net debt/EBITDA against my 10x red flag. BT ran Sherman Kwek's three-year plan for CDL, plus a report that CDL will hire a dedicated CEO for fund management. Separately, Mapletree Industrial Trust is selling a Minnesota data centre property for US$9.8 million.

My Personal Take

My first reaction to the CDL headlines was that a plan to drive returns sounded like an answer to the numbers above. It took me a while to see that a fund management push is fee income, which is not the same thing as lower debt. The test I set for the 28 September review was signed, priced asset transactions, and the headlines describe a plan and a hire, not a priced deal. With the 10-year near 5.23%, higher rates weigh more on a company covering interest less than once. A stated debt reduction figure would change how I read it. 🦖

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

Where to Park Your Cash for Higher Yield: T-Bills vs Fixed Deposits vs SSB (Updated for 1.92% T-Bill Yields)

Mon 28 Sep 2026 | Daily Long-Form

Today's long-form is the ⭐ Members Edition, made free for everyone.

The Numbers

The 6-month T-bill just cleared at 1.92%, its highest print this year. Most fixed deposits are still under 1.70%. CPF OA pays 2.5% for October to December 2026, but that money cannot be touched in an emergency. At S$100,000, DBS balance bands can cut the effective FD rate on anything above S$20,000. Syfe Cash+ Enhanced shows a 3.0% projected return, but the data behind it is dated 17 November 2025, so I treat that figure as stale.(Correct me here if you have updated data, so that we can share with the community). 

My Personal Take

My first reaction to 1.92% was to compare it with the fixed deposit rates I keep seeing advertised. What I almost missed is that the headline rate is not what decides this. Your balance band and how soon you might need the cash do. It took me a while to connect the CPF OA 2.5% to the T-bill number, because they answer different questions: one pays more but is locked, the other pays less but you can reach it. That split between cash you may need soon and cash you can leave alone is where the full piece spends its time. Let the numbers speak, kopi-o in hand. 🦖

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Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

Iggy's Journal: Four New SGX ETFs, But Are They Really Local?

28 September 2026, Morning

Podcast

This morning I flagged the Xtrackers expansion as a genuinely useful addition to SGX's lineup. Sitting with it a bit longer, I think there's a sharper question underneath the good news.

The Numbers

Does trading a fund in Singapore dollars make the investment itself Singaporean? I don't think it does, and I don't want to confuse the exchange where a fund trades with the actual markets where the underlying companies operate. These four new ETFs, tracking the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and MSCI World, are genuinely easier to access now, dual-currency, local trading hours, no need to route through a US broker. But the overseas exposure underneath them hasn't changed at all. The headline fee range runs from 0.03 to 0.20 percent a year, which sounds like the whole cost story, but it isn't. Brokerage charges, bid-ask spreads, trading volume, index tracking accuracy, distribution treatment, and foreign-currency movements all sit on top of that headline number and shape your actual outcome.

My Personal Take

For a CPF or SRS investor, the distinction between these three funds matters more than the shared "easier access" headline suggests. MSCI World isn't the same bet as the S&P 500, one is global developed markets, the other is US-only. The Nasdaq 100 is a much more concentrated technology and growth tilt than either of the other two, and concentration cuts both ways. None of that changes because the ticker now trades on SGX instead of a US exchange. I'd rather people pick based on what they're actually exposed to than on the comfort of seeing it priced in Singapore dollars. Full breakdown of how these four funds actually differ, and what the real all-in cost looks like beyond the headline fee, is in today's episode.

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/6ZlceCMeoyk

📩 Substack: https://investingiguana.com/p/four-new-etfs-land-on-sgx-in-october

Iggy's Journal: US Treasury Yields Hit a 2007 High. Singapore's Own Bonds Just Followed.

28 September 2026, Morning

Yesterday's video asked why a US Treasury shock barely touched CPF and T-bills. This morning there's a more direct answer sitting in the data: Singapore Government Securities did move, just not through the channel most people check first.

The Numbers

Wall Street closed Friday's session with a genuine tech-led rally, Dow up 0.93 percent to 51,828.62, S&P 500 up 0.51 percent to 7,743.41, Nasdaq up 0.48 percent to 27,068.72, driven by gains in Microsoft, Qualcomm, and Dell as crude oil eased and Treasury yields pulled back slightly from their 2007-era peak. Brent fell 2.14 percent to $104.32 on signs of a possible compromise over Middle East maritime transit. USD/SGD sits at 1.2771. Back home, the actual transmission channel showed up in the SGS curve for the week: the 2-year yield rose 11 basis points to 1.93 percent, the 5-year climbed 5 basis points to 2.21 percent, the 10-year added 4 basis points to 2.47 percent, and 3-month SORA OIS repriced to 1.59 percent, all moving in response to global bond pressure and August's core inflation print of 2.2 percent. Separately, MAS is reviewing its stance on cross-border stablecoins under its Payment Services Act consultation, considering tokens co-issued by a domestic and international operator, and DWS expanded its Xtrackers ETF lineup on SGX to include direct, dual-currency access to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and MSCI World.

(more in comment; out of space)

Iggy's Journal: US Treasury Yields Just Hit Their Highest Level Since 2007. Your CPF Statement Won't Show It.

27 September 2026, Evening

Video Release

The question I kept coming back to this week wasn't why US Treasury yields reached 5.22 percent. It was why my own CPF statement barely reacted to something that size. That gap is the whole story.

The Numbers

This is a genuine global bond shock, the kind of move that reprices risk everywhere it touches. But Singapore's transmission mechanism runs differently, CPF Ordinary Account still sits at its guaranteed 2.50 percent regardless of what Washington's bond market does, and this week's 6-month T-bills yielded between 1.70 and 1.92 percent, both untouched by the headline number. The risk hasn't vanished just because your statement looks calm, it's moved somewhere else, into the balance sheets of specific REITs that actually have to refinance debt in this environment. Sector medians currently sit at 39.6 percent gearing and 3.3 times interest coverage, numbers that describe an entire sector's cushion, not any one name's.

My Personal Take

I don't want anyone reading a US Treasury headline and assuming their own portfolio absorbed the same shock, because it didn't, not directly, and not evenly. CPF's guarantee doesn't move with a foreign bond market, and neither does a T-bill you've already locked in. What actually moves is a REIT's refinancing cost the next time its debt comes due, and that's a company-by-company question, not a headline-level one. A sector median tells you the general cushion, it doesn't tell you whether the specific REIT sitting in your own portfolio is closer to the healthy end of that range or closer to the edge. I wouldn't let a dramatic number out of Washington replace an actual forensic check of the names you're holding. Full breakdown of which structural factors actually matter for refinancing risk is in today's video.

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply

Iggy's Journal: T-Bills Jump to 1.92%. What It Means for Your CPF and SRS Cash.

25 September 2026, Afternoon

Podcast

The surprising part of this auction wasn't simply that yields rose again. It's that they rose despite genuinely strong demand, which is usually the thing that's supposed to hold a cut-off down, not push it up.

The Numbers

The auction drew S$15.8 billion in applications, real demand, plenty of investors competing for allocation, and the cut-off still jumped 22 basis points in two weeks to 1.92 percent. That combination tells me the auction is clearing at a genuinely higher price for short-term cash right now, not just drifting because supply happened to be thin. For CPF Ordinary Account money, the comparison is straightforward: 1.92 percent still sits about 60 basis points below the 2.5 percent OA rate, so this auction doesn't change that calculus. For SRS funds or cash sitting outside CPF, the real question is different, whether a modestly higher rate than a fixed deposit is worth giving up the flexibility a Savings Bond gives you, since a T-bill locks your money away for the full six months either way.

My Personal Take

Strong demand and a rising yield happening at the same time is the detail I keep coming back to. It means the market isn't just accepting a higher rate because it has no choice, it's actively bidding for exposure at that higher rate, which says something about where people expect this trend to go next. For CPF OA money, this one's easy, the OA rate still wins and nothing here changes that. For your SRS or spare cash, the honest answer is it depends on whether you value the extra yield over the ability to get your money back before six months is up, and that's a personal call, not a forensic verdict. Full breakdown of how I'm reading this auction against the last two is in today's episode.

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/f67O32UvX0k

📩 Substack: https://investingiguana.com/p/the-t-bill-auction-just-had-its-biggest

Not financial advice.

Iggy's Journal: The 10-Year Treasury Just Pushed Past a 2007 High. Singapore's Banks Felt It the Next Morning.

25 September 2026, Morning

Wall Street's overnight session looked calm on the surface, three flat-to-slightly-down index moves. The bond market underneath it wasn't calm at all.

The Numbers

The Dow fell 0.31 percent to 51,349.98, the S&P 500 was essentially flat, down 0.02 percent to 7,704.13, and the Nasdaq actually closed up 0.01 percent at 26,939.37. None of that tells the real story. The 10-year US Treasury yield pushed past 5.11 percent and touched 5.20, retesting a level not seen since 2007, while Brent crude extended its rise for a second straight session, up 3.56 percent to $106.75, on the same Strait of Hormuz tension that pushed it through $103 the day before. USD/SGD sits at 1.2796. Back home, the STI closed Thursday's session down 0.5 percent at 5,683.37, on turnover of S$1.8 billion, dragged specifically by the banking trio: DBS down 0.3 percent to $77.48, OCBC down 0.2 percent to $31.59, and UOB down 0.8 percent to $42.50. Separately, StarHub and Keppel confirmed they've entered preliminary talks over a potential consolidation involving M1, still talks, no terms disclosed yet.

My Personal Take

A calm-looking index number can hide a genuinely unsettled bond market, and that's exactly what happened overnight. When the 10-year yield retests a level from 2007, every income asset back home gets repriced against that number whether the headline mentions it or not, and Singapore's own banks led the STI lower the very next session. That's not proof of causation on its own, but it's the kind of alignment worth watching rather than dismissing as coincidence. Oil rising two sessions running on the same geopolitical story is the other thread I'm not done with yet, one day of a move is noise, two is starting to look like a pattern.  

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

Iggy's Journal: The Real Price of a Debt-Free $4,500 a Month in Retirement Is $711,000, Not $1.8 Million.

25 September 2026, Evening

Video Release

The biggest distortion I found in this comparison wasn't the retirement target itself. It was treating CPF as though it contributes nothing, then asking a portfolio to fund the entire S$4,500 a month alone.

The Numbers

Once CPF LIFE is actually counted, the FRS to ERS tranche produces an estimated 9.04 percent annual payout ratio, a genuinely strong number, but it comes with a real cost: that money stops being liquid capital the moment it goes in. At the Enhanced Retirement Sum, the remaining portfolio gap falls to S$1,060 a month, which requires S$270,638 at my 4.7 percent yield hurdle. Add that to the ERS itself and you land at roughly S$711,000, a long way from the S$1.8 million figure you get if you strip CPF out of the picture entirely and ask a portfolio to cover the full S$4,500 on its own.

My Personal Take

This is the forensic tension underneath the headline number. CPF gives you stronger guaranteed lifetime income, a dividend portfolio gives you access to capital for medical bills, family needs, and the unexpected. Neither one is the correct answer on its own, and most retirement content I see picks a side and pretends the other doesn't exist. The honest version of this conversation isn't CPF versus portfolio, it's how much of each you actually need. Full breakdown of how I built the S$711,000 figure, tranche by tranche, is in today's video.

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Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

Iggy's Journal: Three Out of Four Singapore REITs Trade Below Book Value. Here's Why Almost Nobody Is Merging Them.

24 September 2026, Afternoon

Podcast

The average S-REIT trades at 0.77 times book value. If markets worked the way textbooks say they should, that gap alone would trigger a wave of mergers. It hasn't. The count sits stuck at 39.

The Numbers

External managers earn fees on the size of the REIT they run, so a merger that fixes the discount also erases someone's income. That's why consolidation only happens within the same sponsor's stable, fees never actually leave the building, they just move from one entity to another under the same roof. The pressure on the sector isn't easing either. DBS just cut target prices by 9.6 percent after the Fed hiked to 3.75 to 4 percent, adding another headwind to a sector already trading at a structural discount nobody managing it is incentivised to close.

My Personal Take

If you're holding a small, externally managed REIT for the yield, this is the actual mechanism keeping your distributions flatter than they need to be, and it has nothing to do with whether the underlying properties are any good. Nobody at the manager gets a bonus for shrinking their own fee base, so the discount just sits there, year after year, quietly costing unitholders while the manager's income stays exactly the same size. That's not a scandal, it's just an incentive structure working precisely as designed, for the people it was designed for. Full breakdown of which REITs actually have a sponsor path to consolidation, and which ones are structurally stuck, is in today's episode.

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/fhAFb_gtiHU

📩 Substack: https://investingiguana.com/p/three-out-of-four-singapore-reits

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

Iggy's Journal: Wall Street Fell on a Yield Not Seen Since 2007. Singapore's T-Bill Just Printed at 1.70%.

24 September 2026, Morning

I'm writing this one from an airport, one more flight before I'm actually home, so bear with me if it reads a touch leaner than usual. Wall Street had a rough overnight session, and the number underneath the headline drop is worth more of your attention than the drop itself.

The Numbers

The Dow fell 0.68 percent to 51,511.59, the S&P 500 dropped 0.75 percent to 7,706.03, and the Nasdaq led the slide, down 1.13 percent to 26,936.04. The driver was the bond market: the 10 year US Treasury yield pushed toward its highest level since 2007 after a stronger than expected September business survey reinforced bets on further Fed hikes, and Brent crude jumped over 4 percent past $103 a barrel on renewed Strait of Hormuz worries. Back home, the STI's last official close was 5,710.00 on 23 September, down 0.24 percent, as Singapore's own core inflation accelerated to 2.2 percent for a third straight month, the highest reading since September 2024. USD/SGD sits at 1.2797. 

MAS's scheduled six month T-bill auction this morning cut off around 1.70 percent, the first genuinely clean rate figure I've had in hand all week, worth comparing against your own last renewal. 

My Personal Take

Rising global yields and a domestic inflation print landing on the same news cycle is really one story wearing two costumes. Every income asset on this board now has to justify itself against a higher hurdle, not because anything changed at the company level, but because the alternative your money could sit in instead just got more expensive. I'm also keeping half an eye on the Trump-Xi state visit kicking off in Washington today. A two month trade truce extension is the kind of headline that moves sentiment fast without changing a single Singapore balance sheet. What would change my view here is a number or a term sheet, not a headline.

Not financial advice.

Iggy's Journal: Inflation Ticks Up for a Third Straight Month. The STI Barely Noticed.

23 September 2026, Evening

(No infographic for this post; I'm on a plane right now) 

The STI closed at 5,709.9, down 13.85 points, a quiet 0.24 percent day. Underneath that quiet, Singapore just posted its highest core inflation reading in two years, and the room is genuinely split on what MAS does about it in October.

The Numbers

Core inflation rose to 2.2 percent in August from 2 percent in July, the third straight monthly increase, while headline inflation, which includes accommodation and private transport, ticked up to 2.3 percent. Airline ticket costs jumped 12.9 percent, the sharpest rise in nearly four years, and services inflation climbed to 2 percent from 1.7 percent the month before. MAS already tightened the SGD NEER slope twice this year, in April and again in July, and economists are now split on whether October brings another small tightening or a hold. DBS's Chua Han Teng summed up the tension in four words, inflation "firmed but not accelerating."  

My Personal Take

Barclays called this data "more benign" than what MAS was pricing in back in July, and I think that's the real story hiding under a boring index day. The central bank tightened twice this year on the expectation that growth would eventually show up as inflation. Now the inflation is showing up, just slower and milder than the move that was meant to get ahead of it. That's not a policy mistake, it's a central bank managing a moving target in real time, but it does mean the case for October restraint gets a little stronger with every print like this one. If your T-bill or fixed deposit is coming up for renewal around then, this is exactly the kind of data that decides whether your next rate looks better or worse than the last one.

Cheers, Iggy