$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) sold some 400 calls to reduce cost, kept five contracts
股海散修
R1.买便宜的，买少一点。 R2.下单前思考三次在交易什么。
股海散修Suggestions for you to follow
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$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)
Why are 2x leveraged products not suitable for long-term holding?
07709 has been plummeting continuously, from 190 down to over 60, which is terrifying. I've been wanting to write an article about leverage risks.
First, understand the underlying logic of 2x leveraged products: 2x long is not a simple *2. In reality, it uses Daily Leverage Reset, with returns calculated on a daily compounding basis. Therefore, long-term holding mainly faces two issues.
1. Leverage Decay (Volatility Drag)
For example: Up 10% on the first day, down 10% on the second day.
Underlying stock: 100 → 110 → 99, a loss of only 1%.
2x product: 100 → 120 → 96, a loss of 4%.
Because the 2x product resets its leverage daily. If the market is in a volatile pattern of up one day, down the next over the long term, each fluctuation consumes a portion of the NAV. So, the more intense the volatility and the longer the time, the more obvious the leverage decay (Volatility Decay) becomes.
2. NAV Compression (Recovery Drag)
The biggest problem isn't the drag, but the NAV compression.
For example: SK Hynix falls from 100 to 50. The underlying stock only needs to rise 100% to get back to 100.
However, due to daily compounding and leverage effects, the NAV of the 2x product may have already fallen from 100 to around 30. Even if SK Hynix later doubles again, the 2x product would only rise from 30 to 60, still far from the original 100.
So, we've also seen people calculate that the underlying stock is almost back to breakeven, while the 2x product is still far away.
Therefore, the biggest risk of leveraged products is not actually "falling fast," but rather:
1. High volatility oscillations will continuously generate leverage decay;
2. Prolonged declines will continuously compress the NAV, increasing the required future gain to break even.
2x products are more suitable as trend trading tools, not for long-term holding waiting for a recovery.
The memory sector has experienced a magnificent main upward wave, entering a mid-term phase with excessive volatility. StockPro SanDisk warned early on to deleverage and hold the underlying stock.
XL2CSOPHYNIX
HK07709
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I've been slowly accumulating some between 190-200, let's see if it gives a sweeter opportunity$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)
I've been gradually increasing my allocation to NVDA during this period. As the concept of physical AI advances, I believe NVDA will recreate a new growth curve, and storage will also have new stories to tell.
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$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) semiconductors got hammered, but Brother Da (NVIDIA) still went up, turning into an index manager. Be patient and slowly accumulate, believe that Brother Da will return to the throne at some stage.
NVIDIA
USNVDA
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I didn't buy storage stocks, not because they're bad, but because the entry point was too high. Storage is one of the strongest sectors in AI hardware, but since I didn't participate in the earlier growth phase, I'm unwilling to take on the later risks in exchange for the profits others made earlier. I believe the sector will recover, but how will those taking on high-leverage positions at the peak be able to withstand it?
The volatility in the storage sector is already evident. A 10% return often can't even cover a single normal pullback. Unless there's already a sufficient profit cushion from earlier gains, or it's part of a long-term portfolio allocation, retail investors chasing highs and selling lows due to FOMO in a bull market are easily harvested repeatedly by the market.
I can't chase the storage sector. I admit I don't understand this industry and lack the ability to judge when to get in or out. I can only give up. $Micron Tech(MU.US)
In this round, big tech has been drained of blood and experienced significant pullbacks. Microsoft fell below all support levels in half a month, and Google, Amazon, and NVIDIA also saw considerable adjustments. The crypto and space sectors were even more of a bloodbath.
I don't have a profit cushion to chase the already surging storage sector. The only thing I can do now is buy companies with the world's strongest ecosystems, the most abundant cash flow, and the deepest competitive moats, patiently waiting for the market to reprice them. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)$Amazon(AMZN.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US)
Cash is gradually decreasing, pullbacks are getting larger, and emotionally it's starting to hurt. Extend the time horizon, be a friend of time.
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Behind one survivor bias lie countless failures🙂↕️
Today I heard a wealth legend:
There's a young guy in the universe company who's the leader in playing US stocks, said to be the admin of the Feishu US stock group.
His account quietly holds $30 million USD, and today he quit the group and retired early.
Before leaving, he dropped this line: Making a fortune by buying US stocks is easier than grinding to 4-1 in the company, working is purely a waste of life.
The monthly interest income alone can be 1 million RMB.
At only 30 years old, he plans to travel the world
Saying I'm not envious is a lie
I'm green with envy
Of course, there's also survivor bias: those who quit the group and retire will post, those who get margin called and go back to work, won't.
Putting aside the envy emotion
It's actually a strong reminder fate is giving us:
Don't work until you're old.
There are many opportunities beyond working for the boss.
$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US) $CleanSpark(CLSK.US)
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$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US)
The comment section has seen a lot of new faces.
Currently, I'm still mainly holding ASTS shares for the long term. I don't have the courage to get back into options at the low point for now; that last wave really hurt. Right now, I'm playing long calls on some old-timer stocks, making a bit of cash flow from some opportunistic trades.
Staying alive is what matters most.
AST SpaceMobile
USASTS
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$Cleveland Cliffs(CLF.US) successfully bought one at 9.9, next order placed at 8.8🤓
Cleveland Cliffs
USCLF
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If given the chance, keep buying the dip; this cost is much lower than the current share placement. Do you believe in the hexagonal warrior Google, do you believe in Berkshire, do you believe in the Wall Street big shots🙂↕️
$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US): Calculated the price of this $80 billion share issuance:
Berkshire Hathaway: Class A shares $351.81 / Class C shares $348.20
The $15 billion ordinary share placement underwritten by Goldman Sachs and other investment banks: Based on the after-hours price after Tuesday's negative news-driven sell-off, and after deducting the usual discounts for large institutions, the final cost for the first-tier Wall Street firms to acquire common shares is locked in at around $360.
Secondly, the other $15 billion in mandatory convertible preferred shares, due to the inclusion of a 15% to 25% premium rule, the initial conversion cost for institutions in the future will be as high as between $420 and $450 (primarily aiming for the fixed dividend before conversion).
The largest portion, the $40 billion ATM (At-The-Market) direct sale plan, as it will only start in the third quarter and involves a 'drip-feed' style sale directly into the secondary market, has no fixed cost at all, entirely depending on the real-time market price at that time.
In comparison, the main common share cost for Wall Street is about 3.5% higher than Buffett's base price of around $350, while the costs for the convertible shares and the third-quarter ATM plan are even higher or more uncertain.
Berkshire's move might indicate Google could become a potential value stock in the AI era, with its money-printing profitability, ability to sell 'shovels' (infrastructure), develop TPUs, and have its own software ecosystem—a true all-rounder. Starting to build a position at 350+.
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The volatility in the storage sector is already evident. A 10% return often can't even cover a single normal pullback. Unless there's already a sufficient profit cushion from earlier gains, or it's part of a long-term portfolio allocation, retail investors chasing highs and selling lows due to FOMO in a bull market are easily harvested repeatedly by the market.
I can't chase the storage sector. I admit I don't understand this industry and lack the ability to judge when to get in or out. I can only give up. $Micron Tech(MU.US)
In this round, big tech has been drained of blood and experienced significant pullbacks. Microsoft fell below all support levels in half a month, and Google, Amazon, and NVIDIA also saw considerable adjustments. The crypto and space sectors were even more of a bloodbath.
I don't have a profit cushion to chase the already surging storage sector. The only thing I can do now is buy companies with the world's strongest ecosystems, the most abundant cash flow, and the deepest competitive moats, patiently waiting for the market to reprice them. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)$Amazon(AMZN.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US)
Cash is gradually decreasing, pullbacks are getting larger, and emotionally it's starting to hurt. Extend the time horizon, be a friend of time.
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Got my chair ready and waiting
Replay
Jun 18 at 04:57 AM 直播
How does Musk's "Cosmic Chess Game" fit into our wallets?
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$Cleveland Cliffs(CLF.US) is going to give a third round of opportunity again? Just hold on a bit longer🙂↕️
Cleveland Cliffs
USCLF
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$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) has corrected 16% from its high.
$Amazon(AMZN.US) has basically wiped out this year's gains.
$Microsoft(MSFT.US) price is near the 5-year moving average.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US), the core of the AI era, already has a very low PE.
Continue buying on dips according to plan, control position size and pace, don't top up emotionally. At this point, it's time to buy and lie flat. 🫠
Alphabet - C
USGOOG
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$Microsoft(MSFT.US)
On the contrary, I think it's more prudent to chase hot topics now.
Microsoft has fallen to around 380, and this poor soul (me) has started building a base position for the 2027 0617 LEAPS call options. The company's fundamentals haven't changed; Azure, Office, and Copilot are still growing. The current concern is more about the market's worry over the pace of AI investment payoffs rather than a loss of competitiveness. I think it's unfair for such a large, platform-type blue-chip stock to be treated this way.
Microsoft
USMSFT
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$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US)He's finally gone, finally exposed as a fraud. Those who haven't been through it really don't know how it feels. I often criticized my mom for buying a bunch of useless health supplements, turns out I'm not much better. Gotta focus on making money from now on 🤣
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I don't think ASTS will break through 150 in a very short period of time (618).
The broader market has reached a high level and needs to consolidate. The main theme of AI needs to continue to prove the effectiveness of massive infrastructure investment. ASTS as an individual stock also needs to prove the sustainability of its network construction and commercialization.
BB8-10 uses second-generation large satellites. If successful, it can prove that the commercialization path story is sustainable. Falcon 9's historical success rate is 99%, so there's a high probability we don't need to worry.
Moreover, the three major operators also released news in May about establishing a joint venture to integrate satellite spectrum resources. The core purpose is to avoid monopolies that would reduce operators' bargaining power. Currently, they are at a disadvantage in the game with Starlink. Therefore, ASTS has a high probability of becoming a core partner.
For those looking to make a quick profit and run in the short term, especially those still holding 618, yesterday's opening provided an opportunity for a rollover or stop loss.
Looking back at the article I wrote, the market is brutal. My profits from this stock were completely given back due to the 618 incident because I didn't follow discipline. But if you track the fundamentals well, there's a high probability that this stock's common shares could deliver returns exceeding those of ordinary stocks.
[Personal Thoughts] The game after ASTS $90: Pricing logic after the 45-satellite network deployment, benchmarked against Starlink's IPO.
I. Preface: Logic Over Noise Two weeks ago, when the market panicked amidst post-earnings "noise," we decisively accumulated in the $70 range. Now the stock price has stabilized above $90, achieving a perfect bottom reversal. But this is just the beginning. With Musk's Starlink confirmed for an IPO next month, the valuation framework for the satellite communications sector is undergoing a fundamental shift. II. Moat: Why is the FCC authorization an important asset for ASTS? As a legal practitioner, I value its compliance premium more...
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$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) There's also CPI and Oracle's earnings report on Wednesday. The broader market pulled back last Friday, and today's rebound looks strange. Be cautious of a bull trap, and pay attention to position sizing and risk control.
AST SpaceMobile
USASTS