明月照平湖

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)$Micron Tech(MU.US) I recently watched "Sister's Home," and the controversy between Ran Yingying and Zou Shiming gave me some thoughts: 1. Poverty-stricken couples face difficulties in everything, although not 100% accurate, when facing financial hardship, human nature is exposed; 2. Do what you are good at. Zou Shiming is a boxing champion of his generation, but that doesn't mean he can be a top performer in the boxing gym business; 3. If you venture into an area you're not good at, you must first learn and accumulate experience. Corresponding to the Buffett principle, it's "don't do what you don't understand." If you really want to do it, you must first create a good MVP and can't go all in at once; 4. For my own investment thinking, money isn't spent, it's lost. The primary principle of investment is to preserve capital, preserve capital, preserve capital. Reflecting on myself, I've been losing a lot recently in semiconductors and chips. Essentially, it's still amplifying my own greed, with a high degree of speculation, and I didn't react to potential risks in time; 5. Since it has come to this, if it's a good company, a good organization, a good business model, don't look at it, it affects your mood. If not, sell it quickly, pay for your knowledge. The tuition fee is just too expensive, remember.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)Reviewing my recent trades, I only looked at the basic factors and didn't consider market crowding or short-term major events. I was too impatient, and rushed to average down. Now I can only stand in the storage sector. Going forward, I must strictly follow discipline and be cautious about adding positions during sharp declines.

$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US) I'm bullish on you, waiting for you to drop again to pick you up

$Micron Tech(MU.US) Storage has plummeted recently, and all sorts of excuses are useless. I've just been standing by in storage recently, fortunately without leverage. There are probably two reasons: first, it rose too much and too fast, squeezing out the water; second, the Sea King is going to pay tribute and needs to hand over a 'letter of submission' to the Americans.

$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US)At this point, the one I feel most sorry for is my family.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) Borrowing a phrase from Brother Feng, at this point, the ones I'm most sorry for are my family.

People only reflect and summarize problems after being beaten. I just reviewed my investments over the past few years. The so-called "value investing" I favored didn't make any money. Meta, Horizon, Li Auto—none of them brought substantial returns, and I even lost my shirt. This clearly shows that I was terribly wrong about investment trends and predictions. These stocks might have long-term potential, but they violated the first principle of investing as Buffett said. What's even more ridiculous is that since 2022, I sold the company-granted stocks way too early. As of today, if I hadn't sold those shares, they would have quadrupled. Despite knowing the company's business better than outsiders, I didn't stand firmly by the company's side. Losing millions, I chose the noisier market, indicating that my logic in the trading market was fundamentally flawed. I misjudged both trading trends and expectations. Now it's the market's turn to disprove the trades. I should just study more from now on. Investing is a lifelong endeavor. First, deepen your research into the business, grasp multi-dimensional industry information, and have clear logical judgment before making decisions. Never pay for personal charisma again. If you're not good, just study more.

$HORIZONROBOT-W(09660.HK) With this kind of trend, the bottom hasn't been reached yet, it's really heading towards the horizon.

$Futu(FUTU.US) Keep it up ✊ There are always more solutions than difficulties. It reminds me of a passage from Sima Qian's 'Biographies of Money-Makers' written two thousand years ago: 'Therefore, the best way is to follow the natural course of things; the next best is to guide them with benefits; the next is to instruct them; the next is to regulate them; the worst is to compete with them.'

Value investors still need to think about and practice trading trends, trading expectations, and trading falsification.

$LI AUTO-W(02015.HK) are the two worst stock purchases I made this year. One is Horizon Robotics, the other is Li Auto. I thought the former was high-tech, but it turns out it's commonplace with no real barriers. The latter relied on product positioning to gain a foothold in the short term, but it also lacks competitive barriers, with neither ecosystem nor technology being competitive. I'm paying the price for my misjudgment. It's time to cut the losses.

$HORIZONROBOT-W(09660.HK) Paid for my own flawed perception, thinking this company had a competitive moat. Now it seems I overthought it. Any automaker can develop ADAS chips these days, it's become commonplace. Moreover, I haven't seen much advantage for this company in terms of computing power leadership, models, or data. Waiting for a piece of good news, it's time to sell. People only learn to be cautious after getting beaten up.