911.5m shares unlock today and insiders can move the first 20% of that. thats roughly 116 billion of paper that suddenly has an exit. revenue 7.81b was fine, the loss was fine, nobody cares. supply is the only variable that matters for the next two weeks and im not touching it until the tape tells me how much actually came out.
orange
O
sandisk reports wednesday after the US close, so about 4.30am thursday our time. street is at 33.38 eps while the company only guided 30 to 33, meaning consensus sits above the top of their own range. calling it now, they beat and the stock still cannot hold the gap 📸
O
whoever is sitting in a 2x sndk product into an earnings print, you and i are not the same 🫡 daily reset will quietly eat you even when you get the direction right
O
msft is the most boring name in mag7 right now, ytd down 18 and everyone forgot about it while the chips fly. earnings on the 29th, forward pe near 20 is honestly cheap for this company. accumulating the laggard while the crowd chases momentum elsewhere
O
friendly reminder that SOXL is a 3x daily leveraged etf, not a buy and hold. i use it for quick swings around semi momentum but the decay will eat you alive if you just sit in it. fun in a rally, painful in a chop
O
SK Hynix ADRs down around 13% and it reports next week on the 22nd. the whole memory complex is pricing in a glut that the HBM numbers just do not show yet. i play the group through the basket $Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM.US)$ so no single 13% session wrecks me. the SK Hynix earnings on the 22nd will either confirm the shortage or the bears win. holding into it, not chasing.
O
SK Hynix gave back most of its +27% moonshot in a session, exactly the whipsaw i warned about when the ADR was trading 51% over the Seoul shares. that premium had to unwind. the HBM4 and Korea AI budget story is still real, but you don't chase a stock that moves 27% then 9% in two days. i hold the memory basket $Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM.US)$, not the single-name casino.
O
SK Hynix ADR went vertical, +27% in a day, US premium now ~51% over the Seoul shares as options started trading. Barclays Overweight, 12-layer HBM4 in mass production, Korea's $531B AI budget behind it. this is the HBM king and Wall Street just woke up to it. i play memory through the basket $Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM.US)$ rather than chase a +27% single-day candle though.
O
SK Hynix down about 9% in the US, near its $149 IPO price, four days after the biggest foreign listing ever 😮💨 the trigger was a brokerage note saying Q2 profit lands ~8% below consensus on HBM contract limits. i play memory through the basket $Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM.US)$ not the single ADR, exactly to avoid this kind of single-name whiplash. holding, not adding into CPI night.
O
the SK Hynix debut headline was +14%, but the real signal was them saying memory stays undersupplied through 2030, and Samsung pulling its Yongin fab forward to 2029 to catch up. supply can't meet demand for 4+ years. that's the whole memory bull case in two data points. holding my $Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM.US)$ basket, adding on any dip.
O
SK Hynix lists in the US today, raising about $29.7B, a book 7x oversubscribed, the second-biggest US IPO ever behind only SpaceX and ahead of Alibaba. institutions fighting this hard for the HBM king is the memory bull case in one data point. i hold a small slice of the 2x SK Hynix ETF plus $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US) for the basket. when-issued trades tonight, regular Monday.
O
the SK Hynix IPO is 7x oversubscribed at $28B, about to be the largest US listing ever by a foreign company, and it lists Friday. institutions are fighting to own memory right as retail dumped it. i hold a small slice of the 2x SK Hynix ETF plus $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US) into the listing. leverage into an event is risky so i keep it tiny, but a 7x book is a real signal.
O
SK Hynix prices Thursday and lists Friday, a $29 billion raise into a memory bear market. that timing is either terrible or perfectly contrarian. i hold a small slice of the 2x SK Hynix ETF plus $Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM.US)$ for the basket. leverage into a listing during a selloff is high risk so i keep it tiny, but the biggest memory IPO ever landing at the bottom of a washout is worth a small bet.
O
SK Hynix pricing this Thursday, listing Friday. i hold the 2x SK Hynix ETF as my most direct play on the 7/10 listing catalyst. small position because leverage into an event is a coin flip, but the setup is too clean to sit out entirely. Samsung's $58B print today makes me feel better about the HBM demand thesis backing it.
O
SK Hynix doing the biggest foreign IPO in US history right when memory pulled back tells you everything. HBM king raising $29B to build more capacity is not what a glut looks like. i hold a small slice of the 2x SK Hynix ETF into the July 10 debut, keeping it tiny because leverage into an event is a coin flip. too clean a catalyst to sit out fully though.
O
the July 10 SK Hynix Nasdaq listing is the memory catalyst nobody's talking about. $29B raise, biggest ADR ever, and they own about 60% of the HBM market. i play it through the 2x SK Hynix ETF plus $Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM.US)$ for the basket. leverage cuts both ways so i keep it small, but the setup into the 10th is too clean to ignore.
O
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US) took a hit with the group today but the setup into July 10 is what interests me. SK Hynix lists ADRs targeting 29B and owns close to 60% of the HBM market. more supply financing usually means the cycle is real, not fading. small position, adding on weakness rather than strength.
O
careful conflating SanDisk with Micron though. MU is mostly DRAM and HBM, thats where the AI money is. SNDK is NAND, the supercycle there is real but lags and the pricing is choppier. i hold it but with smaller size than my DRAM exposure, risk-reward isnt the same.
O
chasing SanDisk at an all-time high after a 5% pop feels like buying kopi at airport prices ngl. great story, terrible entry. parking this one on the watchlist and waiting for a pullback instead of FOMO-ing the rip.
O
down 5% but 42% above IPO and it literally passed Amazon for a hot minute this week. a pullback the day after options list is the most normal thing ever
O
CPI was mostly energy and core was actually soft, so why is everyone so sure Warsh goes full hawk tonight? feels like the market might be overreacting tbh
O
$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) joining the Nasdaq 100 later this month is a big deal for a space name. index inclusion means forced buying from the funds 🚀
O
not selling a share. AI needs memory and the shortage runs for years. sitting through whatever volatility comes 💤
O
just hold the memory ETF and stop trying to time the names. supply discipline plus AI demand lifts the whole thing 💤
O
if Micron HBM is sold out then Hynix is in the same boat. holding a little 7709 as my Korea memory proxy 💪