邦娜娜涨TSMC's market performance has stabilized over the past two days, with a 3% rise largely reflecting "psychological expectations being realized."
Morgan Stanley predicts a gross margin of 60%+, indicating sustained demand for high-end AI chips.
The computing power investment cycle persists, and TSMC remains the most direct beneficiary.
Unlike short-term concept speculation, this wave is backed by solid industrial logic.
Let me share my after-hours view. Many people couldn't believe today's 3000-point breakthrough, but I actually studied the market carefully last night and raised my expectations. The strength and speed of this W-bottom pattern left many slow reactors completely baffled. Since the gradual decline in May, there have been many trolls and haters, but it only takes three days to shut them up.
Today my portfolio gained another 7%, and this month's surprises have far exceeded expectations. Also, selling East Money today doesn't mean I'm bearish on the market - I explained the reason during trading hours: value for money.
More people must believe in the bull market now, but few have maintained faith like I have all along.
Alibaba likes to eat alone and is not friendly to minority shareholders. It's an old tradition.
Tesla released Robotaxi on the 10th, moved some positions to bet on autonomous driving. Seems there are no good targets, can only rely on technical analysis.
$Akeso (09926)$ If you can only choose one pharmaceutical stock to invest in Hong Kong stocks, then without a doubt it is Akeso! If there are no some shady operations and inexplicable geopolitical issues! It's only a matter of time before Akeso's market cap reaches 100 billion! Comparing Hengrui and BeiGene with Akeso, from an investment perspective, is like comparing bronze to gold! There's no comparison! $Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (SH600276)$$BeiGene (SH688235)$
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is not driven by financial consumers buying in, but purely by speculation. How can it still rise? That doesn't make sense.
When a company has more engineers than an entire continent and they move faster. This will result in better EURO NCAP scores and easily comply with different global safety standards. $BYD(SZ002594)$
Saw an interesting post on Cleantechnica: "Optimistic about BYD becoming the world's top automaker, because BYD employs more R&D engineers than all OEM automakers in North America combined."
"BYD is easily positioned to become #1. Significantly more R&D engineers than every US-based OEM combined"
When one company has more engineers than entire continents, it lets them move much faster. That lets them have the top scores in EURO NCAP and adjust to any disharmonized global safety standard easily.
#LongBridge Journey#
I saw a post on Weibo from someone in the auto supply chain, probably related to glass. He's quite enthusiastic about test-driving cars and sharing insights about different automotive glass brands and the industry's inside stories. I followed him to learn more.
But I noticed that most consumers hardly pay attention to the brand or materials of car glass. According to him, some manufacturers use high-quality designs and brands but don't sell well, while some best-selling cars cut corners with cheaper glass. At least based on his description, you can tell which suppliers are widely recognized and prioritized in the industry and which ones truly have technical expertise. It's a classic case of 'amateurs watch the show, professionals watch the craft.'
After reading for a while, I learned that he speaks highly of Fuyao Glass and a non-listed company called Guangyi Technology, praising their technical capabilities and quick response. Especially in meeting the demands of new energy brands—like solutions for autonomous driving (cameras, HUDs, UV protection, etc.)—they're not lagging behind foreign competitors and are even surpassing them.
From his description, he works at a foreign-owned factory in Guangdong, with clients like Volvo, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen. But now, traditional fuel car manufacturers there are struggling, especially in Foshan—Volkswagen and Honda are doing poorly. Car factories, transmission plants, and surrounding suppliers are all in dire straits, with each day getting harder.
Tencent Holdings (00700) fell, are those who kept talking about buybacks happy now? Paranoid delusions acting up
$Meituan-W(03690)$ is a bit overbought, and a pullback is imminent.
Buy Xiaomi's 20 yuan call option expiring on the 28th. I know there will be a pullback, but my choice is to buy calls to earn time value. The premium for this call was earned from Bilibili's 17% surge last night.
$Luzhou Laojiao (SZ000568)$ I don't do day trading, I don't sell. Let me put it this way: even if you succeed in day trading 100 times, making just one mistake could make you miss out on a 10-fold surge. There have been countless such cases over the past decade. If you care too much about cost and miss a few percentage points, you won't chase it anymore—because day traders just want to earn that small profit. Missing a few points and having to chase it back would kill them.
I also think Luzhou Laojiao will pull back,
but if there's a 10% chance it keeps rising from the bottom, I won't sell a single share!
Missing one rally could ruin all the bargain-hunting efforts of these years! $Tencent Holdings (00700)$ $WuXi Biologics (02269)$
Facts have proven that Nio's orders are substantial, and it's already on the path to recovery. Don't rush—Nio truly thinks long-term. Please trust before doubting. They've come back from the brink of bankruptcy in 2019, so they've got the resilience needed~ The stock price rose +11% today
$Tencent Holdings (00700)$ Recording that Kweichow Moutai surged 8 points, Tencent broke through 400. $Kweichow Moutai (SH600519)$
About Xiaomi's smartphones, it has done well in the low-end market in the past, now it has established itself in the mid-range market, and in the future, it needs to strive to achieve the high-end market!
It's time for the Chinese stock market to perform
XPeng's sales volume didn't explode either.
Throughout historical market trends, the main upward wave of a sector is closely related to the industry's prosperity cycle, whether this prosperity belongs to the penetration rate increase stage of the growth phase or a one-time cycle. In short, it is the improvement in profitability (expectations) that drives valuation increases, forming a Davis double play. Only this year's high-dividend market is special—there is no prosperity to accompany it, not even expectations. All it has is "stable performance and decent valuation," yet it still experiences a main upward wave. In fact, this is a product of a unique era—since the recorded central bank data after the reform and opening up, this is the first time in 45 years that M1 has declined year-on-year, exhibiting the extremely rare typical deflation characteristics under a credit-based monetary system. This situation directly triggers risk aversion and a shortage of low-risk income-generating assets. Government bonds are the first to be bought up, and high-dividend stocks are also grouped by funds due to similar concepts. Note that high-dividend stocks only borrow the "income-generating" concept from the bond market, but in fact, as equity assets, high-dividend stocks do not possess the "low-risk" characteristics of bonds. Therefore, the essence is still speculative capital speculation, not the so-called value investment philosophy purifying the speculative market.
That’s why I’m not optimistic about the high-dividend sector despite the central bank leveraging to buy stocks. The purpose of market support is already clear—superficially, it’s about creating a wealth effect to stimulate consumption potential, but this is actually shallow. The root cause is to reverse the M1 decline trend, break through the barriers to monetary circulation, and ensure the smoother implementation of subsequent fiscal and monetary policies, thereby revitalizing the entire economic system. Ultimately, it’s about saving the economy and expectations. And economic recovery is precisely the biggest risk to the so-called "bond-like" concept of the high-dividend sector.
Alright, now it's time for market value management and improving the quality of listed companies. Press conferences are held during the day, and policies and measures are intensively recommended at night—this is a combination punch.
The "Guidelines" require listed companies to enhance operational efficiency and profitability based on improving their quality, and to legally and compliantly utilize methods such as mergers and acquisitions, equity incentives, cash dividends, investor relations management, information disclosure, and share buybacks to boost their investment value.
The "Guidelines" clarify the responsibilities of listed companies' boards of directors, directors, senior management, controlling shareholders, and other relevant parties. They also impose specific requirements, such as major index constituent companies disclosing market value management systems and long-term undervalued companies disclosing valuation improvement plans. Meanwhile, the "Guidelines" explicitly prohibit listed companies from engaging in illegal activities under the guise of market value management.
$PDD(PDD.US) PDD is a great company, I hope it breaks through 110 and reaches 120 this week!
We knew about the press conference yesterday, and were afraid it would be another disappointment, but it turned out pretty good with most expectations met.
1. A 50bp RRR cut and 20bp cut on 7-day reverse repo rate basically signal that interest rate cuts are on the way.
2. Reducing existing mortgage rates and equalizing down payment requirements for second homes with first homes - this had been rumored for long and finally materialized. Real estate instability does have huge impacts. With current mortgage rates so high, people are obviously paying off loans early, leaving less disposable income for the key consumer group aged 30-50 to spend. This makes stimulation difficult. Honestly it's a bit late.
3. Creating special loans for share buybacks at 1.75% rate - probably the first direct mention of stocks in years instead of vague terms. Also establishing structural monetary tools to support capital markets, where funds obtained by institutions can only be invested in stocks, currently sized at 500 billion yuan with room to grow. This might be why markets surged today - targeted capital injection into stocks.
4. Plenty of restructuring news too, with stabilization funds under research etc.
Basically all key demands were addressed, and markets reacted very positively without the usual high-open-low-close pattern, going straight to high-open-high-close.
Frankly, having worked in finance for years though not directly in investing, I interact with many investors. The current pessimism is unprecedented - worse than the 2016 circuit breakers, 2018 crash, or 2020 limit-downs. Many who used to talk about buying A-shares while actually doing so have now stopped talking and started buying overseas assets instead. The aversion to A-shares is intense.
I obviously want A-shares to recover since it's our domestic market, and hope my future living/retirement assets can rely on it. So practicing what I preach, most of my assets are in A-shares now.
Anyway, best wishes for A-shares, and may our people profit in our own market.
我的地产股不涨，那中国经济就麻烦了。因为按照以下的逻辑推断：
首先，如果想提高人们的消费水平，必须增加人们的收入。
其次，要增加人们的收入，就必须先提振房地产市场。
第三，要提振房地产市场，就要先救市场主体。
最后，要救市场主体，就必须让路劲和合景泰富的股票价格上涨。因此，我的地产股已经完全捆绑住了中国经济。
简而言之，要想中国经济发展良好，就必须让路劲和合景泰富的股票价格上涨。所以我的口号是：路劲股票 (01098) 和合景泰富集团 (01813) 要先涨起来！
投资有点像追求内啡肽的过程，需要经历一段时间的持久性的努力，与此同时摆脱那种瞬间的即时满足的欲望，才能够获得更加持久的满足感。
人们每天都充斥着各种瞬间的快感，就像多巴胺一样，给你极大的快感，但也持续不了太久。与此不同的是，内啡肽提供的那种幸福感和成就感比快感更具体和更有趣。然而，想要获得这种成就感并不容易，通常需要经历一些痛苦的经历，那些你必须付出努力才能获得好处的事情。这就是为什么阅读、学习和运动可能更有帮助，因为这些活动需要耐心和持久的努力。
同样的，投资也需要持久地努力。人们需要学会等待，投资像内啡肽一样，投资者必须经历一些麻烦的经历，经历过程会很辛苦，但却非常值得。与此同时，需要远离那些追求短暂快感的投资，投资者需要耐心等待回报，长期的投资及对自身财务计划的规划，才是成功投资的关键。让我们通过远离瞬间快感，追求更加持久的内啡肽式投资吧！
