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As the first interest rate cut by the U.S. dollar entering the post-pandemic era of rate cuts, this rate cut can be described as both &#34;big&#34; and &#34;hawkish.&#34;The &#34;big&#34; lies in the fact that the first rate cut directly slashed 50 basis points, which was indeed unexpected compared to market expectations; the &#34;hawkish&#34; aspect was conveyed during the conference call and the dot plot, indicating that this 50-basis-point cut should not be linearly extrapolated, and future decisions will still be data-driven. This 50-basis-point cut was merely to demonstrate the Federal Reserve's determination to protect the economy.An interesting point was when several reporters repeatedly asked Powell whether this was a &#34;catch-up&#34; rate cut. Powell emphasized that, given the relatively good data on inflation and consumption, the large rate cut was more focused on being a forward-looking move. However, he also admitted that if the July employment data had been known earlier, a rate cut might indeed have been implemented at the previous meeting on July 31.From Dolphin Research's perspective, this illustrates two points:a. Among the various economic data, the current unemployment rate and new employment figures are the real core data, as subsequent CPI and PPI reports did not raise any red flags for the Federal Reserve.b. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve to some extent only reflects the Fed's wishes and guides the market to trade on these wishes, but it does not mean this path will necessarily materialize.From the revisions in this economic forecast, it can be seen that among the root variables of the economy, the most significantly revised was the unemployment rate. The 大幅下修的政策利率预期 is merely a result of this root variable.Therefore, in the coming period, a key tracking point for the expected rate cut 幅度 will be the labor market: What is the labor participation rate? How much has labor supply increased? How much has job demand decreased? How much has the unemployment rate increased, and is it within the &#34;controllable&#34; range below 4.5%?Especially given the 惯性下修 in 每次新增非农就业， it’s prudent to build in some 保险 upfront. Based on the downward adjustments over the past few months, some decline should already be factored in. At least, this is how Powell indicated the Federal Reserve would approach the data.Furthermore, Dolphin Research is not overly concerned about this hawkish rate cut path guidance. The key still lies in the employment data, particularly if the weakening is primarily due to an oversupply from increased immigrant inflows rather than a decline in corporate job demand. In that case, the economy may not be as weak as feared.

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Pixar's 'Hoppers' Generates $46 Million in North American Opening Weekend Box Office

Caterpillar Launches New D8 XE Dozer with 10% Fuel Efficiency Boost

Iran reportedly launched drone attacks on Microsoft and Amazon data centers in the Middle East

Analysis indicates Amazon's P/E ratio is at a ten-year low after stock price correction

Microsoft plans to restore customization for the Quick Settings panel in Windows 11

Ming-Chi Kuo Predicts: Second-Generation Apple MacBook Neo to Launch in 2027, May Feature a Touchscreen

Apple Signs a Five-Year Cooperation Agreement with Formula 1

Amazon UK to Hold Seven-Day 'Spring Deal Days' Event

Microsoft proposes 'Computer-Using World Model' to teach AI agents to 'try before doing'

X Money Launches X Card Physical Debit Card

Tech team successfully cracks NVIDIA RTX 50 series memory frequency limit

Analysts suggest buying Samsung on dips, with NVIDIA returning as the top chip pick

Apple's iPhone 17 sales in China grew by 8% in January, market share rises to tie for first place

NVIDIA releases 595.76 hotfix driver, significantly boosting RTX 50 series performance

Apple reportedly planning to use 3D-printed aluminum chassis for iPhone and Apple Watch

Apple is reportedly planning to update the iMac later this year with a new color scheme.

A motion sickness relief feature in Apple's iOS 18, called 'Vehicle Motion Cues', has been discovered by users.

Bernstein analysis suggests Apple's transition to AI presents both opportunities and cost pressures.

Gurman reports Apple plans to launch the first MacBook Pro with a touchscreen and OLED display later this year.

Microsoft to hold technical session and AMA on Secure Boot certificate updates

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A recent Reuters report highlights the views of Trump voters regarding the ongoing conflict with Iran. While many support airstrikes, they oppose the deployment of ground troops, fearing prolonged involvement. Despite rising gas prices, most believe the situation will stabilize. Interviews reveal a mix of support and skepticism about the war's rationale, with concerns about its impact on the economy and potential for escalation. As midterm elections approach, the conflict's popularity among Republicans may influence voter sentiment.

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Airstrikes, not occupation: Where Trump voters draw red lines on Iran

.DJU

The conflict in Iran is threatening the global energy market, sending gas prices soaring and the Dow to its worst week in nearly a year.

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Stock market reacts to dismal jobs report

U.S. retail sales in January grew by 3.2% year-on-year, higher than the previous 2.4%

AASTOCKS

U.S. retail sales in January grew by 3.2% year-on-year, higher than the previous 2.4%

QQQM

US equity futures fell pre-bell on Friday, with Dow Jones down 0.7%, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 0.9%, as traders awaited the monthly jobs report. The February report is expected to show a 55,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. Oil prices rose, with Brent crude up 3.3% and WTI crude up 5.4%. The ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has led to the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global shipping.

- US equity futures declined as traders anticipated the monthly jobs report.  
- The ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has affected oil prices, with Brent crude rising 3.3% and West Texas Intermediate crude increasing 5.4%.  
- The February jobs report is expected to indicate a rise of 55,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.3%.

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Traders Eye Jobs Report as US Equity Futures Slip Pre-Bell

Reminder: At 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. February non-farm payroll report and U.S. January retail sales will be released

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The US stock market's Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2%, closing at 47,759.04 points

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U.S. stocks fell as oil prices surged after an Iran missile strike on a tanker widened shipping risks. Dow plunges.

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What Iran did to cause the Dow to plunge 750 points

A U.S. judge will hold a closed-door settlement conference to discuss the refund process for up to $175 billion in illegally collected tariffs. Judge Richard Eaton will meet with government lawyers to address the unprecedented scope of refunds affecting over 300,000 importers. The meeting follows a Supreme Court ruling that struck down Trump's tariffs as unconstitutional. The judge aims to establish a streamlined process for refunds without extensive litigation, with expectations for a public announcement on the refund process soon after the conference.

- A U.S. judge will hold a closed meeting with government lawyers to discuss refunding up to $175 billion in unconstitutional tariffs collected from over 300,000 importers.  
- The process, deemed unprecedented, may require a manual review of tens of millions of tariff payments, as directed by Judge Richard Eaton.  
- The meeting aims to create a streamlined refund process to avoid litigation for around 2,000 cases, providing quick refunds for most importers without the need to sue.

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EXCLUSIVE-US judge to meet parties on Trump-tariff refunds in closed-door 'settlement conference'

On Friday (March 6), at the end of trading in New York, S&P 500 index futures fell by 1.40%, Dow futures dropped by 1.05%, and NASDAQ 100 index futures decreased by 1.55%. Russell 2000 index futures fell by 2.41%

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The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has stated it cannot process tariff refunds due to computer issues. Executive director Brandon Lord noted that the agency's digital import processing system is inadequate for handling the scale of refunds required. This announcement follows a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated tariffs imposed by President Trump, with the International Trade Court confirming that affected importers are entitled to refunds.

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The Trump administration says it can’t process tariff refunds because of computer problems

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Daylight saving time in North America began on March 8, resulting in the trading hours and economic data release times for the financial markets in the United States and Canada being moved one hour earlier. Gold, silver, and WTI crude oil will open at 6:00 AM Beijing time, while U.S. stocks will open at 9:30 PM Beijing time. Investors should pay attention to the adjustments

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In North America, daylight saving time is implemented, causing the trading hours of financial markets and the release of economic data in the United States and Canada to be advanced by one hour

Two key inflation reports, including the Federal Reserve's favored price measure, have been released in the wake of a disappointing February jobs report. Bloomberg posted on X that the recent employment data has raised questions about the stability of the labor market. The reports are expected to provide further insights into inflation trends and their potential impact on economic policy. Analysts are closely monitoring these developments to assess the broader economic outlook.

CoinLive

Inflation Reports Emerge Following Weak February Jobs Data

U.S. retail sales in January fell 0.2% month-on-month, expected to decline by 0.3%, with a previous value of 0%. The decline in U.S. retail sales in January was dragged down by weak sales at auto dealers, and disruptions related to winter weather suppressed some activities

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U.S. January Retail Sales Quick Review

March 5(Reuters) - For details of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s weekly blance sheet, see the following link: Factors Affecting Reserve Balances: here

US Federal Reserve weekly balance sheet

U.S. job growth is expected to slow in February, with nonfarm payrolls forecasted to increase by 59,000, following a significant gain in January. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.3%. Factors such as a return to normal hiring trends in healthcare and potential impacts from ongoing geopolitical tensions are contributing to this outlook. Economists suggest that while the job market is stable, it faces uncertainties that could affect consumer spending and overall economic growth.

- U.S. job growth in February is projected to increase by 59,000, a slowdown from January's 130,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4.3%.  
- The anticipated stabilization in the labor market follows uncertainty from President Trump's tariffs and escalating Middle East conflicts, which could deter consumer spending.  
- Economists predict that updated population controls will show reduced labor supply and that fewer than 50,000 jobs per month will be needed to maintain pace with the growing working-age population.

WRAPUP 1-Slower US job growth expected in February; unemployment rate forecast steady at 4.3%

Affected by winter storms and weak auto sales, U.S. retail sales in January fell by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the first negative value since October last year and the largest monthly decline since May last year. Excluding automobiles, sales remained flat month-on-month, while core "control group" sales increased by 0.3%, indicating that the core of consumption remains resilient. Online sales grew against the trend, and actual consumption showed robust performance. Economists expect that the scale of tax refunds this year is likely to boost consumer spending in the subsequent quarters

- In January, U.S. retail sales experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, attributed to weak sales at auto dealerships and adverse winter weather.  
- Core indicators remain stable, as retail sales excluding autos were flat, while sales, excluding autos and gasoline, grew by 0.3%.  
- Economists anticipate that larger tax refunds in 2026 could boost consumer spending, although current data raises concerns over the strength of consumption, which constitutes about two-thirds of GDP.

U.S. January retail sales month-on-month -0.2%, the first negative growth since October last year

This is semi-official bad news for all.

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UBS has downgraded its rating on US stocks to neutral allocation while maintaining an overweight on emerging market equities. The bank pointed out that the US market faces multiple risks, including low operating leverage, downside risks for the dollar, lackluster buyback yields, and high valuations. The strategy team stated that the drawdown of the US market relative to the global market is the largest in nearly 15 years

UBS downgrades US stock ratings, warning of multiple risks including policy and valuation

2026年投资方向

美股

Last week, I already reminded everyone that the probability of this round continuing to surge higher is very low. Looking at this week's trend, the S&amp;P 500 has continued to decline, with the core drag coming from the Nasdaq. The reason it's extremely difficult to reach new highs again in the short term is that unless there is a major stimulus beyond expectations, the market lacks new upward momentum. Current macro data such as employment and CPI have not deteriorated significantly, so the problem is not at the macro level, but rather that the internal structure of the tech sector is changing. In January this year, Anthropic launched agent plugins, beginning to penetrate professional fields such as law, sales, and finance...

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This Week's Review: Thoughts on Asset Reallocation Amid Volatile Downtrend

The stock market has just witnessed how disruptive investors' concerns about artificial intelligence can be across multiple industries. Last week, the volatility in software stocks spread to the wealth management, transportation, and logistics sectors, raising questions about how much AI can truly transform the tech industry and high-fee service sectors. Affected by AI concerns, the financial services sector (XLF), consumer discretionary (XLY), and tech stocks were sold off, with both the S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) falling more than 1% this week...

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The Dark Side of AI: Wall Street Weighs the Recent Stock Market Sell-Off and Its Disruptive Impact

For all the trillions poured into AI, pls let humanity progress in all areas faster. An save Gaia!

Feb 12 (Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes inched higher on Thursday, a day after robust jobs growth and a dip in unemployment eased concerns around the U.S. economy, while investor attention turned to a slew of corporate earnings.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 48.9 points, or 0.10%, to 50,170.27 at the open. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 16.1 points, or 0.23%, to 6,957.54, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 76.4 points, or 0.33%, to 23,142.87.

- Wall Street’s main indexes showed modest gains after strong job growth and a decrease in unemployment alleviated economic concerns.  
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 48.9 points to 50,170.27, the S&P 500 increased by 16.1 points to 6,957.54, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 76.4 points to 23,142.87.  
- Investor focus shifted towards upcoming corporate earnings announcements.

US STOCKS SNAPSHOT-Wall St rises as markets assess economic data

May this rise also help other bourses worldwide.

I've gotta say this. The indices edged upwards, but before long, something, somewhere happens, and they roll back again. The Only constant is the change. There are so many factors. Already, the next factor is the Consumer Price Index. A lot of real and perceived 'noise', some amplified beyond its true impact.

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U.S. stock index futures rose on Thursday, with Dow up 0.4%, S&P 500 up 0.3%, and Nasdaq up 0.3%, as strong job growth and a declining unemployment rate alleviated economic concerns. Traders adjusted their expectations for interest rate cuts, with a significant focus on the upcoming Consumer Price Index report. Corporate earnings reports, including those from Restaurant Brands and Cisco, drew investor attention, while some tech shares faced declines due to competition. Additionally, trade discussions between the U.S. and China may extend their truce, and a resolution against Trump's tariffs on Canada was passed.

- U.S. stock index futures rose on February 12, supported by strong job growth and a decrease in the unemployment rate, alleviating economic concerns.  
- The upcoming Consumer Price Index inflation report and jobless claims figures are anticipated, while investor focus remains on corporate earnings.  
- Notable pre-market movements include declines in shares of AppLovin and Cisco, with expectations for a potential extension of the trade truce between the U.S. and China.

US STOCKS-US stocks futures edge higher as data eases economic worries

Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)

Airstrikes, not occupation: Where Trump voters draw red lines on Iran

Stock market reacts to dismal jobs report

U.S. retail sales in January grew by 3.2% year-on-year, higher than the previous 2.4%

Traders Eye Jobs Report as US Equity Futures Slip Pre-Bell

Reminder: At 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. February non-farm payroll report and U.S. January retail sales will be released