Morning Trend | ZJLD saw a significant drop in trading volume on October 21, is the risk of a retreat in the spot liquor sector increasing? On October 21st, ZJLD experienced a significant volume drop during trading, with a clear lack of support from bulls throughout the day, while bears continued to exert pressure, causing the stock price to expand its downward fluctuation range. The entire liquor industry has recently lacked substantial positive news, and the benefits brought by the previous consumption recovery have been largely digested, leading market sentiment to shift rapidly from optimism to caution and even conservatism. News regarding inventory pressure on liquor companies and the sales pressure on high-end liquor has been continuously fermenting, with several leading liquor companies struggling to meet performance targets, resulting in a continued weakening of the industry atmosphere. From a market perspective, ZJLD has just fallen below the 30-day moving average, prompting technical funds to quickly cut losses and exit, while short-term speculative funds have also flowed out with the market, showing weak rebound momentum. As the MACD indicator line dips, massive trading volume continues to be released, indicating that the main force's selling pressure has not yet been exhausted, and the enthusiasm of funds in the market has sharply declined. In terms of intraday structure, most right-side funds remain on the sidelines, with very few main players willing to actively take on new positions. Each time there is favorable news for the industry or unusual market movements, the height of the rebound is clearly limited, often ending with short-term profit-taking, indicating that the overall market is more inclined towards defensive strategies. On the news front, the high valuation risk of the liquor sector has once again become a focal point of discussion in trading communities, with several leading liquor companies lowering their sales guidance, triggering a new wave of risk-averse behavior from institutions. Negative topics, including seasonal inventory pressure and channel inventory distribution, have dominated the direction of the entire sector. The technical outlook shows a significant ongoing high-level correction, and if unusual trading activity occurs again during the session, it is necessary to guard against further exacerbation of the sector's downward trend due to negative news. In summary, the conservative sentiment surrounding ZJLD and the entire liquor sector will further amplify short-term risk exposure
Technical Forecast · 10/22/2025 09:00
