Deconstructing the 2025 financial closing data: M2 rebound due to the return of wealth management, social financing slowdown affected by the base, credit structure continues "strong enterprises, weak individuals"
In December, new social financing amounted to 2.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 645.7 billion yuan. CICC stated that this is due to the base effect—during the same period in 2024, the concentrated issuance of 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds raised the base, leading to a "rhythm mismatch" this year. In terms of credit, the structural characteristics of "strong enterprises, weak households" remain significant, with corporate credit showing unexpected resilience, significantly higher than in previous years. The rebound in M2 mainly comes from structural adjustments on the bank's liability side, as the yield advantages of wealth management products and interbank certificates of deposit have narrowed, leading to a return of non-bank funds to bank balance sheets, converting into deposits. Although the M1 reading is not high, signs of "household deposit migration" have not ceased
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