Morning Trend | ZHEJIANGEXPRESS continues to decline with reduced volume, is there limited space for defensive capital to flow back?
ZHEJIANGEXPRESS (576.HK) has recently shown a trend of declining volume with consecutive drops, with daily K-lines continuously closing in the red and a significant bearish structure following the MACD death cross. There is strong demand for profit-taking at high levels, while the buying strength at low levels is relatively weak, and the short-term hotspots lack resonance with the sector. The fundamental logic lies in the limited performance elasticity of the regional highway sector; although its defensive attributes have some appeal to institutional funds, in the bullish atmosphere of competing for high-growth assets, the attractiveness of low-volatility beta strategies is weakening. Affected by macro policies and the transportation industry entering the off-season, the growth rates of freight traffic and toll revenue have both slowed down, making significant improvements in static valuations difficult.
From a technical perspective, after losing the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, the characteristics of declining volume are evident. If the price cannot hold the HKD 5.3 to 5.35 range today, the probability of a short-term pullback to HKD 5.1 to 5.2 increases. If the trading volume remains low, it will exacerbate the turnover at low levels and capital outflows, limiting the space for defensive capital to flow back. The intraday market shows that left-side buying funds are cautious, and major institutions are maintaining a wait-and-see stance. Currently, there are no effective signals for large orders to enter. Under the overall defensive strategy, the sector's overall rebound elasticity is limited. External risks, such as repeated outbreaks or policy changes, could bring sudden impacts.
Operational advice: Focus on observation and defense, avoiding high-level replenishment. If there is an increase in volume accompanied by intraday convergence signals, it is advisable to participate slightly on the left side and set stop-loss orders. Conservative investors may wait for the trend to stabilize or for clear signals from the sector before considering positioning, to reduce the risk of blindly chasing gains
Technical Forecast·
