MBCTGDF@EC2702A

LEOCH INT'L

STARGLORY HLDGS

INTELLIMARK W27

BEST FOOD HLDG

GAOYU FINANCE

EXTREME VISION

TIAN TU CAPITAL

HSC RESOURCES

EPI (HOLDINGS)

LAP KEI ENGRG

601888

01880

CICC has lowered the target price for CTG DUTY-FREE by 17% to HKD 95, and the target price for A-shares by 11% to RMB 95. It is expected that revenue will decline by 4.92% to RMB 53.694 billion in 2025, and net profit attributable to shareholders will decrease by 15.96% to RMB 3.586 billion. In the fourth quarter of last year, revenue grew by 2.81% to RMB 13.831 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53.59% to RMB 534 million, in line with market expectations. The profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged, with a rating of "outperform the industry."

AASTOCKS

CTG DUTY-FREE

In "Major Banks," China International Capital Corporation lowered the target price for CTG DUTY-FREE to 95 yuan, with last year's fourth-quarter performance meeting market expectations

CICC lowered the target price for CTG DUTY-FREE to RMB 95, as its 2025 performance expectations indicate a decline in both revenue and net profit. Nevertheless, it is expected that duty-free sales from departing travelers and island residents will bring growth in 2026, and it is recommended to pay attention to the rebound from a low base. CICC maintains its profit forecasts for the next two years and keeps the "outperform industry" rating for both Hong Kong and A-shares

In "Major Banks," CITIC Securities lowers the target price for CTG DUTY-FREE to 95 yuan, focusing on the subsequent growth pace in Hainan

China Tourism Group Duty Free's Profit Falls in 2025; Shares Up 4%

marketscreener

China Tourism Group Duty Free's Profit Falls in 2025; Shares Up 4%

CTG DUTY-FREE announced its performance for the year 2025, with revenue of RMB 53.694 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%; gross profit of RMB 17.052 billion, a decrease of 1.7%. It recorded a net profit of RMB 3.644 billion, a decline of 15.7%, with earnings per share of RMB 1.7613. A final dividend of 45 cents was declared

"Performance" CTG DUTY-FREE's annual net profit is 3.644 billion RMB, down 15.7%, with a final dividend of 0.45

On the evening of Mar 30, $CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE(601888.SH) released its FY2025 annual report. Since a preliminary earnings flash was already published, there is no expectation gap (Bloomberg consensus was simply not updated in time). Dolphin Research therefore reads the results from two angles: ① the latest trend signals emerging from quarterly performance; ② granular data points disclosed only in semi-annual/annual reports. Details below: 1) On the top line, CTG Duty Free delivered total revenue slightly above RMB 13.8bn, up 3% YoY — the first positive growth since 2024. Policy stimulus and progress toward Hainan's customs seal-off are clearly driving an improving trajectory...

Hainan's Free Trade Port Takes Shape — Can China Duty Free Ride the Tailwind?

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On March 30, intraday sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market was weak, with the three major indices collectively pulling back. The Hang Seng TECH Index fell by 2.90%. The internet, retail, and jewelry sectors led the market decline, with Tencent Holdings and Alibaba both dropping over 3%, and MEITU plunging over 8%. Despite the market pressure, CHALIECO rose nearly 20% against the trend. Market turnover was concentrated in technology heavyweight stocks, reflecting that funds remained active in trading amidst the adjustment

- As of March 30, Hong Kong stocks faced pressure, with major indices retreating amidst weak market sentiment.  
- The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.92% to 24,473.42, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 2.90%, indicating a lack of upward momentum.  
- Investors are closely monitoring export and retail data, with macroeconomic pressures impacting market revaluation based on economic recovery pace and policy signals.

Market Heartbeat

Alibaba

CHALIECO

TENCENT

KUAISHOU-W

MNSO

POP MART

CHOW TAI FOOK

CALB

JD-SW

BYD COMPANY

YOFC

CNOOC

XIAOMI-W

MEITUAN

SMIC

AKESO

Hang Seng TECH Index

CSOP HS TECH

MEITU

Hong Kong Stocks Intraday | Hong Kong Stocks Slide Intraday; Tech Index Drops 2.90%, CHALIECO Rises Against the Trend

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On March 27th, during the Hong Kong stock market, the three major indices collectively strengthened, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index leading with a rise of 1.14%. The catering and retail sectors performed impressively due to a rebound in consumption, with leading stocks such as Ganfeng Lithium and BYD significantly surging. Although the market is under pressure from previous highs, new economy leaders are actively traded, and investors are closely watching the upcoming macroeconomic indicators and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations

- As of March 27, Hong Kong's stock indices rose collectively, with the Hang Seng Index at 25,029.27, up 0.70%.  
- The restaurant sector experienced overall gains driven by a recovery in consumer spending, particularly with Haidilao rising 6.11%.  
- Key economic indicators such as exports and retail sales are under close observation to assess recovery strength, impacted by external factors and local policy adjustments.

GANFENGLITHIUM

HAIDILAO

XUNCE

Ganfeng Lithium

Hang Seng Index

Hong Kong stocks intraday | Three major indices rose collectively, Ganfeng Lithium up 8.31%, the catering retail sector strong

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On March 27th, during intraday trading of Hong Kong stocks, the three major indices maintained a narrow range of fluctuations and have not yet broken through the peak level reached on March 25th. In terms of sectors, retail stocks performed steadily, while the internet and catering sectors showed divergent trends. MAO GEPING rose over 11%, leading the popular stocks, with Tencent and Meituan having high trading volumes, and the overall market sentiment remained cautious

- On March 27, during trading, Hong Kong's three major indices saw slight increases, maintaining a fluctuating trend.  
- The Hang Seng Index reported 24,860.82, up 0.02%, yet failed to reach new highs from March 25, while retail sectors showed slight gains due to stable consumer demand.  
- The macroeconomic context remains focused on trade data and unemployment rates, with expectations of policy support rising as investors seek clearer recovery signals.

MAO GEPING

CHIFENG GOLD

MircroPort Medbot-B

Hong Kong stock market intraday | The Hang Seng Index rose slightly, the retail sector strengthened, MAO GEPING rose 11.56%

Goldman Sachs raised the target price for CTG DUTY-FREE to 67 yuan, maintaining a "Neutral" rating. The report pointed out that CTG DUTY-FREE's net profit last year fell by 16% to 3.6 billion yuan, slightly below expectations, mainly due to goodwill impairment. The sales of Hainan duty-free shops last year were 38 billion yuan, with fourth-quarter sales increasing by 19% year-on-year. The new duty-free contract is expected to have an impact of approximately -4% to -5% on CTG DUTY-FREE's profits. Goldman Sachs raised its earnings forecast for 2026 to 2027 by 4% to 6%

Goldman Sachs raises the target price for CTG DUTY-FREE to 67 yuan, maintaining a "Neutral" rating

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Reports Earnings Results for the Full Year Ended December 31, 2025

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Reports Earnings Results for the Full Year Ended December 31, 2025

China Tourism Group Duty Free prelim 2025 net profit down 16.0% Y/Y

China Tourism Group Duty Free prelim 2025 net profit down 16.0% Y/Y

Financial Analysis

Today’s Key News Recap

0224 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry. Trump signaled a preference for a diplomatic deal over military action on the Iran issue. Geopolitical tensions cooled quickly, and the Geneva talks on Feb 26 remain on schedule.Gold's safe-haven premium is fading. Middle East risks still imply potential conflict. U.S. monetary policy remains the core driver of gold.AI: Leading player Anthropic will host an online livestream. Scheduled at 9:30 a.m. ET on Tue (10:30 p.m. Beijing time)...

Warner Bros. Discovery

Paramount Skydance Corporation - CL B

XIAOMI-WR

Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1

Xiaomi Corporation

Circle

Netflix

ASML

CTG Duty Free hits limit-down on a negative surprise; Lei Jun sets '15-5' hardcore chip push | Daily News Recap---

0120 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industries 1) On Jan 20, the State Council Information Office held a press briefing on implementing the Central Economic Work Conference. The goal is to ensure a solid start to the 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026–2030).The NDRC will draft the 2026–2030 implementation plan to expand domestic demand, working on both supply and demand. Measures include consumer goods trade‑in programs backed by RMB 62.5bn ultra‑long special Gov. bonds, a national M&amp;A fund, and efforts to curb cut‑throat 'involution' competition, aiming to build a domestic‑demand‑led growth model.2) Today, the Ministry of Finance issued five policy documents (...). The release was consolidated.

Allianzim US Large Cap Buffer10 Mar ETF

POP MART HK SDR 20to1

AppLovin

Discover Financial

Policy blitz to spur consumption, boost domestic demand; APP hit by another short attack | Daily News Recap

1230 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Sector. HK and A-share robotics stocks rallied in tandem today.The move was likely driven by two market rumors. First, the Trump administration is said to plan an executive order (EO) on robotics in 2026, which could unlock policy tailwinds.Second, supply-chain firms have recently made intensive visits to North America, and the market expects Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot program to award contracts soon. Institutions forecast phased deliveries starting in Q1 2026, covering annual capacity of 80–100k units, and related component suppliers have begun to ramp up...

BIDU-SW

BIDU-SWR

Baidu HK SDR 10to1

Baidu

Meta Platforms

Lululemon

BIDU ADR US

Robotics rally, BIDU surges, POP MART 'stalls' again｜Daily News Recap

1219 Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry.BOJ raised its policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%, in line with market expectations, marking a 30-year high and the second hike within 11 months since Jan 2025, as core inflation has stayed above the 2% target for 44 straight months and a weaker yen is fueling imported price pressures.Twenty-four leading AI firms, including Microsoft, Google, Nvidia and OpenAI, ...

NVIDIA

Microsoft

OpenAI

Destiny Tech100

Alphabet

Oracle

MSFT, GOOGL and other giants rally behind US 'Project Genesis'; TikTok US plan finalized | Daily News Recap

1105 ｜Dolphin Research Key Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. China has made adjustments to its tariff policy on the United States, announcing the suspension of the previously imposed 24% tariff rate on certain imported goods originating from the United States, while retaining the 10% additional tariff rate. The policy adjustment focuses on balancing trade costs and domestic demand, specifically covering a range of goods including machinery and electronic components. In the short term, the policy will alleviate market concerns about the 'escalation of the tariff war,' while in the long term, further adjustments to tariffs will need to be assessed based on the progress of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations...

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Duolingo

GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF

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XI2CSOPTSLA-U

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XI2CSOPTSLA

Elon Musk reveals new information about Tesla AI5; CDF plans its first interim dividend | Today's Important News Recap

A few days ago, China Duty Free Group (CDFG) released its Q3 2025 financial report. Due to previous conflicts with other financial report release times, Dolphin Research is providing a brief commentary today: 1. After a year and a half of continuous decline, revenue growth has finally stabilized: In Q3 2025, the company's total revenue was approximately 11.7 billion yuan, roughly flat year-on-year (partly due to the increasingly lower year-on-year base). This finally marks a stabilization. Consistent with Dolphin Research's previous view, after six consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, the worst period is likely over. The overall performance of the offshore duty-free market is similar to that of the company, with the total offshore duty-free sales in this quarter declining by 2.6% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to narrow...

Outfront Media

Has China Duty Free finally "bottomed out"?

1030 ｜Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. On October 29th, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced its second rate cut of the year by 25 basis points, lowering the interest rate range to 3.75%-4%, and scheduled to end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st. However, the decision saw rare dissent, with one vote advocating for a 50 basis point cut and one vote opposing the rate cut. Powell stated that a rate cut in December is 'far from certain.' U.S. stocks rose first and then fell, with increased uncertainty in December's policy, coupled with high valuations in U.S. stocks, sector rotation may intensify. It is necessary to closely monitor subsequent employment and inflation data...

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HKEX

BOE VARITRONIX

Alphabet - C

Amazon

Coinbase

BYD Company Limited

BYD COMPANY-R

BYD HK SDR 10to1

BYD Company

HKEX-R

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX)

The US-China meeting ends with market volatility; Google and Meta experience 'two different worlds' after hours | Today's Important News Recap

1017 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. Shares of two U.S. regional banks plummeted due to loan fraud and bad debt issues, with the regional bank index posting its worst performance since April. Risk aversion sentiment pushed up U.S. Treasury and gold prices. The event highlights potential risks in the credit market, and concerns about 'more risk points' will suppress sentiment in financial stocks, while reinforcing expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain an accommodative stance. 🐬 Individual Stocks 1. $Micron Tech(MU.US) Micron Technology's U.S. stock fell in after-hours trading. According to reports, Micron will stop selling server chips to Chinese data centers...

Morgan Stanley

CHINA MOBILE

Micron Tech

CATL

Charles Schwab

Pro Ultr Silver

iShares Silver Tr

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

LENOVO GROUP

China Mobile

CHINA MOBILE-R

LENOVO GROUP-R

Lenovo Group

CATL HK SDR 30to1

SCHWAB(CHARLES)CORP 5.95% DEP SHS REP 1/40 NON CUM PERP PF D

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

SCHWAB(CHARLES)CORP 4.450% DEP SHS REP 1/40TH N-CUM PFD SERJ

Micron to Stop Selling Server Chips to Chinese Data Centers; Meta Plans to Raise $30 Billion to Build Data Centers | Today's Important News Recap

0826 | Dolphin Research Key Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. According to foreign media reports, Trump signed an executive order to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from her position on the grounds of &#34;alleged mortgage fraud,&#34; effective immediately. This unprecedented move marks a significant escalation in his offensive against the Federal Reserve. Following the announcement, the dollar fell sharply, gold surged, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened, reflecting concerns over the Fed's independence and long-term inflation expectations. 2. The National Press and Publication Administration officially announced the game license approval results for August 2025, with a total of 166 domestic online games and 7 imported online games approved...

Goertek

Guangzhou's first downtown duty-free shop opens, China Duty Free surges intraday; GoerTek hits limit-up | Today's Important News Recap

MBCTGDF@EC2702A(28016.HK)

MBCTGDF@EC2702A Stock Performance Chart

In "Major Banks," China International Capital Corporation lowered the target price for CTG DUTY-FREE to 95 yuan, with last year's fourth-quarter performance meeting market expectations

In "Major Banks," CITIC Securities lowers the target price for CTG DUTY-FREE to 95 yuan, focusing on the subsequent growth pace in Hainan

China Tourism Group Duty Free's Profit Falls in 2025; Shares Up 4%

"Performance" CTG DUTY-FREE's annual net profit is 3.644 billion RMB, down 15.7%, with a final dividend of 0.45

Hainan's Free Trade Port Takes Shape — Can China Duty Free Ride the Tailwind?