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Hong Kong's recent increase in stamp duty on ultra-luxury homes is not expected to deter mainland Chinese buyers, who dominate the market. Analysts suggest that structural demand factors will outweigh the impact of the tax hike from 4.25% to 6.5%. The government aims to prevent overheating in the luxury segment, as mainland buyers accounted for 80% of high-value transactions this year. Despite the tax increase, property agents believe demand will remain strong, supported by a recovering market and favorable financing conditions.

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Hong Kong’s higher stamp duty will not stop luxury homebuyers from China

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Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced a fiscal surplus of HK$2.9 billion for the 2025/2026 financial year, three years earlier than expected, due to an asset market boom and austerity measures. The economy is projected to grow by 2.5 to 3.5% in 2026, with improved sentiment reflected in rising home prices and increased IPO activity. However, this recovery comes with sacrifices, including cuts to education and social services, and the loss of 10,000 civil service jobs. The government plans to invest in AI and tech development to create new growth pillars.

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Hong Kong’s Budget is back in the black – but not without sacrifice

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The Hang Seng Index main futures closed up 0.09% in the overnight session, at 26,391 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index main futures closed up 0.12% in the overnight session, at 5,129 points

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China's 15th Five-Year Plan introduces the term 'financial powerhouse,' aiming to modernize the financial system by 2035 amidst geopolitical tensions and a slowing economy. The plan emphasizes direct financing, a multi-tier capital market, and technology-driven finance. It signals a shift from short-term adjustments to a fundamental restructuring of the financial system, focusing on supporting the real economy. Investors can expect changes in capital allocation, with a greater emphasis on technological capabilities and long-term growth, while regulatory frameworks will adapt to support emerging sectors like AI and advanced materials.

- China's 15th Five-Year Plan introduces the term "financial strong nation," aiming to transform the financial system to support industrial upgrades.  
- With policy emphasis shifting towards innovation and technology, there is a clear focus on enhancing direct financing and improving the equity financing environment.  
- Regulatory frameworks will adapt alongside market mechanisms, promoting efficient capital use while maintaining scrutiny on information disclosure as the capital market expands.

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15th Five-Year Plan: Inside China's push To Become A Financial Powerhouse

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Hong Kong has recorded a HK$2.9 billion consolidated surplus for the 2025-26 financial year, reversing an expected HK$67 billion deficit. This improvement is attributed to a strong IPO market and bond sales, with analysts optimistic about future surpluses due to a stabilizing property market and increased corporate profits. The government anticipates a surplus of HK$22.1 billion for 2026-27, supported by significant fund transfers. However, concerns about the legitimacy of counting bond proceeds as revenue persist, with experts emphasizing the importance of proper fund allocation.

- Strong IPO performance and bond sales have helped Hong Kong's finances recover to a surplus earlier than expected, with projections indicating robust listing activity will be key to sustaining this surplus.  
- The Financial Secretary reported a comprehensive surplus of approximately HK$ 2.9 billion for 2025-26, in contrast to the anticipated deficit of HK$ 67 billion, driven by increased transaction volumes and listing activities.  
- Anticipated income transfers are expected to positively affect the surplus for 2026-27, positioning debt growth as manageable while emphasizing the necessity of strategic fund utilization for sustainability.

China Southern Hang Seng ETF

Hong Kong records HK$2.9 billion consolidated surplus for 2025-26. Here’s how

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A proposed AI committee in Hong Kong aims to assist tech start-ups in overcoming legal and geopolitical challenges while accessing crucial databases for model training. Led by the finance chief, the committee will include diverse experts and focus on life and health technologies, as well as embodied AI. Industry leaders emphasize the need for rapid adaptation and direct communication with mainland authorities to facilitate funding and regulatory processes. The committee is expected to enhance collaboration among stakeholders and streamline product commercialization in the fast-evolving AI sector.

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AI committee can help Hong Kong start-ups ‘tackle legal, geopolitical hurdles’

The president of the Manufacturers' Association, Lu Jinrong, expects Hong Kong's GDP growth to be revised up to 3.5% this year. Despite developed economies facing economic weakness and uncertainties from new tariff policies, Hong Kong businesses have demonstrated their ability to respond to challenges by optimizing their global supply chain layout. It is expected that Hong Kong's goods exports will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow to single digits; service trade exports will continue to grow strongly due to active financial markets and the recovery of tourism

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Manufacturers raise Hong Kong's GDP growth forecast for this year to 3.5%

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Zhang Jingbao, the Director of Equity Investment for Asia at Schroders, holds a positive view on the stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong this year, believing that the weakening of the US dollar, declining interest rates in mainland China, and reasonable valuations are supportive factors. She is optimistic about the healthcare and precious metals sectors, with a particular focus on companies with good earnings performance. Schroders has also restarted commercial real estate loans in Hong Kong, believing that the market is bottoming out, and future performance will depend on the overall economy

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Schroders has a positive outlook on the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets this year

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Today is the futures settlement day for Hong Kong stocks. The Hang Seng Index opened higher but fell back, closing down 384 points or 1.4%, at 26,381 points. Southbound funds had a net outflow of HKD 7.366 billion, and technology stocks performed poorly, with Alibaba and Tencent dropping 3.6% and 2% respectively. CKI Holdings' stock price rose 4.5% due to the sale of a UK distribution company. The total market turnover was HKD 259.277 billion

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The Hang Seng Index fell, with northbound capital outflow expanding to over 7.3 billion; Alibaba and Tencent are weak

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Hong Kong stocks fell as Nvidia's earnings failed to boost AI confidence, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 26,381.02. The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 2.9%. Major companies like Alibaba and Tencent saw declines, while Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing rose 0.8% after a profit increase. Nvidia reported a 73% revenue jump to $68.1 billion, but missed bullish projections, indicating a cooling AI market. Other Asian markets closed higher, with Japan's Nikkei up 0.3% and South Korea's Kospi up 3.7%.

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Hong Kong stocks retreat as Nvidia earnings fail to sustain AI momentum

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Hong Kong's leading property developer has announced an increase in its first-half profit, indicating a positive trend in the city's real estate market. Bloomberg posted on X that this growth reflects a broader recovery in Hong Kong's property sector, which has been gradually rebounding. The developer's financial performance highlights the resilience of the real estate market in the region, as it continues to recover from previous downturns. This development is seen as a positive sign for investors and stakeholders in the Hong Kong property market.

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Hong Kong Property Developer Reports Profit Growth Amid Real Estate Recovery

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On the settlement day of Hong Kong stock index futures, the Hang Seng Index fell by 384 points to 26,381 points, the National Index dropped by 220 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 151 points. Technology, automotive, consumer, and pharmaceutical stocks generally declined, with Alibaba down 3.6% and Baidu down 4.3%. CKI Holdings sold UKPN, and its stock price rose by 4.5%. Financial stocks showed mixed performance, with HSBC Holdings up 1.6%, while domestic insurance stocks generally fell. The total market turnover was HKD 259.277 billion

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"Hong Kong Stocks" Hang Seng Index futures settlement day closed down 384 points, with declines in technology, automotive, consumer, and pharmaceutical stocks

The Central Plains Real Estate Research Department pointed out that the CVI index reported 86.71 points this week, an increase of 1.74 points from last week, with a total increase of 10.66 points over the past two weeks, reaching a nearly three-year high. Banks hold an optimistic attitude towards the property market, and the CVI has remained in the optimistic zone for 20 consecutive weeks, indicating an expansion in property price increases. Recently, the decline in interbank rates helps alleviate the pressure on banks' funding costs, and the CVI is expected to maintain above 80 points. The latest CCL reported 149.39 points, an increase of 10.53% from the low level of H interest rates in May 2025

In the "Hong Kong Property" Centaline Valuation Index (major banks) CVI has risen for two consecutive weeks, reaching a nearly three-year high

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEX) reported a record year, with a 15% increase in net profit to HK$4.335 billion and revenue rising 15% to HK$7.31 billion in Q4. The city hosted 119 new listings, raising HK$286.9 billion, driven by a tech rally and the AI boom. The Hang Seng Index rose nearly 30%, and the IPO pipeline remains strong with over 400 applications. Despite expected volatility in 2026, HKEX remains optimistic about investor interest in Asian assets and plans to modernize its infrastructure.

marketscreener

HKEX Has Record Year as Hong Kong Reclaims IPO Crown -- Update

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)has evolved into a hybrid market that reflects China’s economic cycle more than Hong Kong’s domestic fundamentals. Its performance is increasingly driven by mainland policy follow-through, earnings durability in platform and financial stocks, and cross-border capital flows via Stock Connect. Valuation alone is no longer a catalyst; sustained upside depends on whether policy support translates into real profit recovery and renewed confidence from long-term global investors.

$XTALPI(02228.HK) The first to rise in the Hong Kong stock watch list! Push it up!

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The exchange rate of HKD against USD is rising rapidly. Will there still be big opportunities in Hong Kong stocks? $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK)

While the US stock market hovers under the shadow of tariffs, the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a liquidity-driven structural frenzy. But is this 'Hong Kong stocks feast' the beginning of a trend revaluation, or a short-lived bubble induced by capital?From a macro perspective, the weak dollar cycle and the abundance of Hong Kong dollar liquidity are the core drivers of the Hong Kong stock market. In May, US tariff revenue surged to a peak of $22 billion, yet the CPI remained stable, coupled with the potential impact of immigration policies on the job market, the probability of a Fed rate cut in June-July is extremely low. The US stock market remains in a tug-of-war between 'chicken ribs market and downside risk.' In contrast, the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has quickly slid from the strong-side guarantee to the weak-side edge, HIBOR rates are nearly zero, and the abundant liquidity is flooding into new consumption, innovative drugs, and A/H premium targets, driving both blue-chip dividend stocks and growth assets higher.However, the sustainability of the structural revaluation of Hong Kong stocks is highly dependent on the liquidity environment. The current extremely low level of HIBOR has deviated from the US benchmark interest rate. If the Fed's policy shifts or there are changes in the supply and demand of funds, a liquidity retreat could trigger a valuation correction. More critically, the structural premium of the same asset in Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares lacks fundamental support. In a market dominated by southbound funds, caution is needed against the risk of valuation overshoot under 'capital frenzy.'In the short term, as long as the cost of borrowing in Hong Kong dollars remains low, there is still room for liquidity-driven revaluation to continue. However, in the long term, whether Hong Kong stocks can escape the 'capital market' dilemma depends on whether corporate earnings can take over liquidity as the anchor of valuation. Investors need to closely monitor changes in HIBOR rates and maintain sensitivity to risks amid the liquidity feast. $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)When the Hong Kong dollar triggers the strong-side convertibility undertaking, the Hong Kong government will be forced to issue Hong Kong dollars to buy US dollars (unless Hong Kong abandons the linked exchange rate system due to another crisis caused by excessive base money).Short-term may benefit the Hong Kong stock market.

On a weekly basis, the southbound capital flow in Hong Kong stocks was a net outflow in the past week. This is unusual, as it's the first time this has happened in at least over a year. $HSTECH ETF(03032.HK) $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

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Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1

Xiaomi Corporation

$XTALPI(02228.HK)$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)This is a key macro indicator for Hong Kong stocks.

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $XTALPI(02228.HK) Who should be blamed for these poor souls in Hong Kong stocks today? Sigh... damn it

During the 2018 trade war, Gao Shanwen gave a relatively well-known internal speech:Our generation has already made enough money, so young people should just wash up and go to sleep.As for the 2025 tariff war, what I want to say is: young people might not be able to sleep.$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)$Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US)

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Another day protected by southbound capital! At 13:30 in the afternoon, the southbound capital suddenly surged, and the intraday chart skyrocketed after a 10-minute delay (did you day trade during these 10 minutes? 😂).Unlike yesterday, the southbound capital first rose and then fell in the morning, showing overall weakness. By 13:30, the net purchase was only 1.5 billion. After the surge, the cumulative net purchase for the day reached 5.15 billion. Compared with yesterday, I'm more convinced that there is a will behind the southbound capital.$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $BABA-W(09988.HK) $TENCENT(00700.HK)

JP#HSI RP2812L(54372.HK)

Hong Kong’s higher stamp duty will not stop luxury homebuyers from China

Hong Kong’s Budget is back in the black – but not without sacrifice

The Hang Seng Index main futures closed up 0.09% in the overnight session, at 26,391 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index main futures closed up 0.12% in the overnight session, at 5,129 points

15th Five-Year Plan: Inside China's push To Become A Financial Powerhouse

Hong Kong records HK$2.9 billion consolidated surplus for 2025-26. Here’s how