JP#CATL RC2609D(57968.HK)

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Li Auto 4Q25 First Take: overall, the deterioration in auto GPM had been well telegraphed for Q4, yet even against a cautious setup, the print was only middling. Both ASP and auto GPM fell QoQ. ① Revenue slightly missed as ASP contracted more than expected: Auto revenue was RMB 27.3bn vs. the street at RMB 28.2bn, driven by a larger QoQ ASP drop. ASP fell RMB 27k to RMB 250k (vs. consensus RMB 258k), as mix shifted down with higher contribution from the lower-priced i6 and lower contribution from the higher-priced Mega. Li Auto also stepped up discounts on legacy L-series models in Q4, further pressuring ASP. ② Auto GPM broadly in line with expectations and prior guidance: 4Q auto GPM was 16.8%, down 300bps from 19.8% in 3Q after excluding the Mega recall impact, and within management’s 15.8%–16.8% guide. The decline was mainly ASP-driven; despite the i6’s strong demand, supply-chain constraints (battery shortages) limited scale benefits, with total deliveries up only 17% QoQ to 109k. Scale efficiencies therefore did not fully offset the ASP headwinds. For 1Q26 guidance, revenue is guided below expectations: ① 1Q26 delivery guide of 85k–90k, with the midpoint roughly in line with the street’s 88k: Implied Mar. deliveries are 31k–36k (Jan./Feb. at 28k/26k). The sequential pickup should come as i6 capacity ramps in Mar., with management previously indicating post-CNY i6 monthly sales could reach 20k. Adding a second battery supplier has partially eased the i6’s CATL battery shortage. However, the guide still implies a 3%–9% YoY decline vs. 93k in 1Q25, as legacy L-series volumes are under heavy pressure. L-series sold 18k in Jan.–Feb. 2026 (9k per month on Avg.), down 67% vs. 55k a year ago, due to aging models with customers awaiting 2Q launches, intensified competition with larger/cheaper peers, cannibalization from Li Auto’s own BEV i6/i8, and sector-wide demand softness from purchase-tax step-down. ② 1Q26 revenue guide of RMB 20.4bn–21.6bn, well below the street’s RMB 23.9bn: With volume roughly in line, the revenue shortfall reflects a further ASP reset. Guided ASP is ~RMB 222k in 1Q26 vs. RMB 250k in 4Q25, which Dolphin Research attributes to the i6 mix rising from 26% in 4Q25 to ~60% in 1Q26 as capacity releases, and aggressive discounting to clear legacy models ahead of the new model cycle starting in 2Q. Dolphin Research views the print and guide as average at best, and revenue guidance below expectations. That said, on valuation, sentiment may find two supports: an L9 refresh expected in 2Q could kick off a new product cycle, and the rumored debut of Li Auto’s humanoid robot in 1H26 may offer near-term optionality and a downside cushion. Stay tuned for our detailed take.

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