Zheshang Securities
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How to Understand the 2026 "New National Subsidy" Policy
Wallstreetcn·- The Chinese government has initiated a policy for 2026 to support the renewal of consumer goods with an initial allocation of 625 billion yuan from special bonds, indicating a reduced subsidy compared to 2025. - The focus remains on product consumption, with significant adjustments in subsidy structures for automobiles and home appliances, emphasizing higher energy standards. - Overall, while additional funds may enhance support for service consumption in the future, the policy primarily targets quality supply rather than demand-side subsidies.The 2025 New Fortune Best Analyst List is out! GF Securities' Guo Lei team wins the macro champion again, and GF Securities' Liu Chenming team ranks first in strategy (complete list attached)
Wallstreetcn·- The results of the 23rd New Fortune Best Analyst Awards, known as the "Oscars of the Brokerage Industry," were announced on December 17. - In the macroeconomic field, GF Securities' Guo Lei team ranked first, followed by others, while the strategy research sector saw GF Securities' Liu Chenming team take the top spot. - Additionally, Changjiang Securities was the standout firm, earning 18 placements across 30 research areas, with GF Securities and others also recognized.The significance of "personal consumption loan interest subsidies" to the market: boosting "inflation trades," with the stock market continuously suppressing the bond market
Wallstreetcn·- The probability of interest rate cuts this year has decreased due to fiscal policies and rising inflation expectations, which may continue to suppress the bond market. - The implementation of personal consumption loan subsidies is expected to push the next rate cut window to the first quarter of 2026, while demand-side policies may reinforce inflation expectations. - Consequently, the bond market's opportunity for bullish positions may be further delayed, with a higher likelihood of a steepening yield curve.