AMD260116C130000.US

$AMD(AMD.US)

Post 3 Episode 22

Context: What interests me about AMD is that the AI opportunity does not require it to replace NVIDIA. Even a meaningful share of a rapidly expanding accelerator and data-centre market could translate into substantial growth, especially with AMD combining GPUs, CPUs and increasingly rack-scale systems.

My trade: I treated AMD as a strategic challenger position rather than a momentum bet. The thesis is based on improving execution, broader hyperscaler adoption and the possibility that customers increasingly want a credible second source for AI compute. However, I believe better prices for AMD is around the corner so this is just a small position.

Takeaway: An investment thesis does not always need a company to become number one. Sometimes the opportunity lies in identifying the strongest alternative in a market that is growing fast enough to support more than one major winner.

@Captain's Treasure

been holding amd since the 40s, this is the first time in a while the data center story feels like it has real numbers behind it instead of just "we're also in AI"

data center doubling to 70b by 2027 in two years is a big ask, curious if anyone's done the math on what that actually requires in terms of wafer allocation

A $2T TAM number by itself doesn't tell you much, every chip company throws out one of these now. What actually matters is the data center guide going from roughly $35B to $70B by 2027 — that's a specific, checkable number tied to real GPU deployments, not just a slide at a conference.

everyone's pointing to the 6GW OpenAI deal like it's locked in revenue. it's a framework agreement, not a signed check. nvidia still ships more accelerators in a single quarter than AMD probably will all year

CVP of Financial Strategy and Investor Relations at AMD, Matt Ramsay, says copper will continue to be used for quite some time:

Server CPUs selling out isn't the same kind of story as a GPU shortage. Agentic AI workloads still need conventional compute to orchestrate everything around the GPU clusters, and Intel/AMD being the ones who benefit from that is the more durable part of this narrative, independent of who wins the accelerator race.

Out of curiosity, I pulled out a basket of hot stocks to perform Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) waveform similarity calculations. In the heatmap below, brighter colors indicate more similar stock price waveforms. This is a type of waveform similarity that traditional linear correlation coefficients cannot capture.