Citi: Memory
"Overall, we believe the market is underestimating how constrained DRAM/HBM supply is likely to remain as AI-driven demand from hyperscalers continues to accelerate, while memory makers face diminishing benefits from process shrinks and must rely on long-cycle greenfield capacity additions. As a result, HBM and advanced memory supply could remain tight through 2027 and 2028.""Supply is the underappreciated piece, in our view: Node transitions yield less density (1-delta ~25% vs 1-gamma and prior nodes 30-40%). HBM's trade ratio eats wafer capacity, and DRAM bit growth is only in the low 20s. Real supply relief needs greenfield fabs, which takes a long time and cleanroom space is the constraint. Micron's construction spend as a % of capex is approaching 50%."$Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWY
Equity research
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Citi: According to LightCounting and Frost & Sullivan, the 800G segment achieved an exceptional CAGR of 156.3% from 2021 to 2025 and is forecast to grow at 13.9% from 2025 to 2030E. The 1.6T segment — representing the next generation — is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 98.9% from 2025 to 2030E, with mass adoption forecast to begin in 2026.
$Lumentum(LITE.US) $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) $Fabrinet(FN.US)E
Nomura: Based on our latest tracking, incorporating project delays, cancellations and additions, we now have 51 GW-scale data center projects in our tracking base.
Our latest calculation indicates 26GW/40GW/28GW incremental deployment in 2026F/2027F/2028F, from 27/32/23 GW in June update.We estimate 26GW/40GW/28GW could translate into the demand for 5-8mn AI chips.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $SpaceX(SPCX.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
According to @G2AIStack, Nvidia Kyber is back on the agenda, but a scale-down version with the proposed GPU count per rack reduced from 144 to 72.
Additionally, Google plans to ship ~9 million TPU v8 chips in 2027. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)E
$Sandisk(SNDK.US): "We are in active conversations with existing NBM customers that are evaluating extending existing agreements and with new customers that are evaluating new NBMs."
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Presentation from Celestica highlighting projections for custom ASIC and ethernet networking market.
> Custom ASIC TAM is projected to grown more than 7x from $61 billion in 2026 to $434 billion by 2030 at a 64% CAGR.> Data Center Ethernet Networking TAM is projected to grow from $44 billion in 2026 to $173 billion by 2030, driven by rapid expansion in Scale-Up Back-End networking from $1 billion to $55 billion.$Celestica(CLS.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US)E
Goldman Sachs on HBM pricing:
"TrendForce expects blended HBM ASP to increase 122% YoY to $3.7/GB in 2027, driving HBM industry revenue growth of more than 230% YoY to exceed $200 billion. TrendForce said that pricing may vary materially by supplier and customer, with a wide variance where the high-end of the pricing for HBM4 could reach over $5/GB while the low-end closer to $3/GB for next year.""TrendForce believes 8-hi HBM4 could command 5–10% premium over 12-hi on a per-bit basis due to higher base-die cost per memory unit, while pricing for HBM4E next year could be materially higher than HBM4 pricing. We believe TrendForce's view to be consistent with our expectations, as we currently estimate HBM ASP for next year to rise 100-160% YoY for the major suppliers."$Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWYE![图片 1，共 3 张]()
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Expert Takeaways: Google
Gemini 4 Argon Launch Focus: Finalized its checkpoint about 1.5 months before release, targeting Claude 3.5 Sonnet on price/performance with legal and financial as key verticals.Severe Compute Constraints at Google: Due to heavy compute shortages, Gemini 4 Argon is globally suspended internally, free users are pushed from Flash to Light, and features like AI Mode Overview are curtailed.Hardware Bottlenecks & Model Demand: TPU v8i delivery is delayed by roughly one quarter, and since Gemini 4 Argon is Google's first unquantized/unreduced large release, it is extremely compute-heavy.Anthropic's TPU Share & Revenue: Anthropic holds about 3.5 million of Google's 7 million+ TPU units, and its GCP rented compute revenue outpaces running Gemini 4 Argon, prioritizing external supply.Aggressive B-End Integration for Anthropic: Google is integrating Anthropic as a "OneP" (First Party) product inside Gemini Enterprise and Workspace with top-level menu placement equal to Gemini.Flexible Token Credits System: C-end and B-end bundles use equivalent token credits (e.g., 1M Anthropic tokens = 2 coins, 1M Argon tokens = 1 coin) with a shared, freely allocatable quota.Anthropic Training & Infrastructure Mix: Anthropic's mix is roughly 40% training and 60% inference, with the Fable series trained on TPU V7 and about half its product line running on TPUs.Antigravity vs. OpenCode Performance: Antigravity suffers from bugs, privacy constraints preventing source code viewing, and lagging feature velocity; Argon plus OpenCode scores higher on Elo and benchmarks.C-End AI Economics & Growth: C-end AI remains loss-making, with Google banning 10k–20k free-riding accounts daily; new model releases every ~2 months drive 10–20% upgrades and double token consumption.Current Infrastructure Bottlenecks: The tightest bottlenecks are power generation equipment for data centers and inference compute (especially memory/cache for coding workloads), while training compute is less scarce due to paused projects.$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)E
Mizuho: We believe hyperscalers such as Google and Meta are exploring CPO architectures and could help drive the roadmap, though our call noted volume ramps only in 2028-30E, with current supply chain bottlenecks.
$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US)E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
Deutsche Bank sees revenue upside of $216.1 billion. for SpaceX exiting 2027E. This comes with an estimated $148.4 billion in future deals.
$SpaceX(SPCX.US)E
Evercore ISI: AEC Demand
> Copper and AECs are expected to stay in-rack through 200G per lane (1.6T applications), while CPO is viewed as a 2028 and beyond story.> Industry experts estimate an attack-rate of 1.5 AECs per GPU/ASIC.> Passive copper cables cost roughly $100, AECs cost about $900, and AOCs range from $3,600 to $4,000.> 400G AECs are becoming more commodity-like, 800G is in mass production, and 1.6T is expected to carry premium pricing.> Credo's core advantage lies in its system approach (owning SerDes/DSP silicon, software, and end-to-end cables/transceivers) and strong incumbency in the AEC franchise.$Credo Tech(CRDO.US) $Maxlinear(MXL.US)E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
Expert Takeaways: Microsoft
> Azure projected YoY growth of ~45% (±200 bps), with quarterly revenue guidance of $34‑35 billion.> Current‑quarter capex is expected ≥$50 billion; 70‑80% allocated to short‑lived assets such as GPUs and accelerators rather than real‑estate‑heavy datacenter build‑outs.> Over 70% of available compute capacity is prioritized for Microsoft’s internal M365 Copilot ecosystem, with residual capacity allocated to external Azure Foundry customers.$Microsoft(MSFT.US)E
BofA 2H26 survey on AI with ~300 CIOs:
"~17% already see AI ROI, additional 31% expect to see it in 12 months As AI projects move into production, the next test is whether they deliver measurable returns. Enterprise-wide ROI is already reported by 17.2% of respondents, with another 31.4% expecting it within 12 months. Combined, 48.6% see current or near-term returns, while 30.7% expect them in one to two years.""91.2% of respondents increased their AI compute use over the past 12 months, and 54.0% increased it significantly."$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
Expert Takeaways: Memory
> S/D gap of at least 20% in second half of 2026. > Big vendors have just begun forecasting since demand for 2027 has not settled yet.> S/D gap for 2027 is possibly around 10%. A pessimistic take believing in balance by end of next year.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWY $SK Hynix(SKHY.US)E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
Morgan Stanley: We believe AWS's planned incremental GPU purchases will skew to Vera Rubin and Rubin Ultra, we see these extra chips driving an extra ~2 GW /~1 GW of compute capacity in '27/'28 vs. our prior estimates.
$Amazon(AMZN.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)E
$SpaceX(SPCX.US): "I do not think we should necessarily assume that I think some people out there assume that a SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty. I think that would be overstating it."
Looks like Elon is not very positive on a SpaceX and Tesla merger.$SpaceX(SPCX.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US)E
Highlights of a survey done by Bloomberg Intelligence in September on senior AI executives in the US and Europe:
> 92% of respondents expect token budgets to rise over the next 12 months, even as costs already outrun plans for 71% of respondents.> 84% would optimize or switch models if token prices rose 50%, while 86% would expand usage if prices halved.> 9% can measure ROI from token spend directly with high confidence; half fall back on operational proxies.> Over the next 2-3 years, 70% see prices flat or falling, with 35% expecting a decline of 10-50% - room to grow volume as budgets moderate. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US)E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
Deutsche Bank believes SpaceX neocloud business can generate $70-90 billion of revenue in 2027 depending on timing and pricing dynamics.
$SpaceX(SPCX.US)E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
Where is the AI capex going?
According to Morgan Stanley, 2027E capex is $1.58 trillion (including hyperscalers and neoclouds), of which $672 billion is spent on semiconductors & servers. $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US)E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
AI financing has been the most expensive for datacenters/neoclouds, nearing 8% weighted average yield.
The lowest being semis and network/hardware at 5.8%. $IREN(IREN.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Dell Tech(DELL.US) $Vertiv(VRT.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)E![图片 1，共 1 张]()
During SEMICON West 2026, Soitec highlighted LT memory applications as a high-upside opportunity, but advised investors not to include them in current estimates because the likelihood of it materializing is still uncertain.
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CEO of Phison disagrees with the CXMT memory scare and calls it a "ghost story from the market."
He states next year "there will be a shortage of everything except orders." He is more worried about the shortage of materials causing them to be unable to deliver on time than about the visibility of orders. $Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWYE![图片 1，共 1 张]()
According to a 3Q26 survey done by Morgan Stanley, only 13% of CIOs reported a ROI above token spend in AI, with 28% stating a ROI below token spend.
$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)