AppLovin

$AppLovin(APP.US)

Talked to a former Applovin employee over the weekend, here’s some of his thoughts:

- Applovin’s business has been ads within mobile games. It is very profitable, 1B people per day play games, and $Meta Platforms(META.US) or $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) have not been able to break their moat. But, growth rates have slowed down from 70% to now 55% which is incredible, but not good enough for the street because they don’t see the TAM expanding yet.

- Mobile gaming opportunity is large but viewed as saturated and very high growth rates likely aren’t sustainable in this one category.

- Company has guided to keeping their growth at 30%+ but the decline in YoY growth rates have hurt sentiment. Applovin can change this by showing their Ecom expansion can increase the TAM but the company has failed to meaningfully show this which is why the stock has been stuck. The Q2 call didn’t really address the TAM expansion either which is why the stock has been falling so rapidly since then.

- He said management is exceptional and understands what they are doing, it’s not a team to bet against, but the problem is the street is not convinced their growth can expand beyond gaming yet. He himself is also not fully convinced and feels ready to sell a significant portion of stock if the Q after holiday season doesn’t show the TAM expanding beyond mobile games.

- He also said the short reports are pretty much just noise. Nothing ever serious has come from them and they aren’t rooted in anything real.

Stock is down 50% YTD…obviously looks like a bargain and I wonder how much lower the street can send it. Only major software large cap that hasn’t recovered…is anyone buying it here?

Source: amit

Breaking: Bridgewater Associates by Ray Dalio just filed its Q2 2026 13F

Here's everything you need to know about the recent 13F

Top 10 positions:

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF $SPY (16.3%)

• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF $IVV (9.2%)

• Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) (3.2%)

• Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO.US) (2.0%)

• Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) (2.0%)

• Alphabet Class A $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) (1.9%)

• Lam Research $Lam Research(LRCX.US) (1.7%)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOO (1.3%)

• AMD $AMD(AMD.US) (1.3%)

• iShares MSCI South Korea ETF $EWY (1.1%)

Top 10 new positions (by $ size):

• $Eversource Energy(ES.US) (Eversource Energy)

• $AppLovin(APP.US) (AppLovin)

• $Consolidated Edison(ED.US) (Con Edison)

• $Nisource(NI.US) (NiSource)

• $ServiceNow(NOW.US) (ServiceNow)

• $Duke Energy(DUK.US) (Duke Energy)

• $Nutanix(NTNX.US) (Nutanix)

• $APA(APA.US) (APA Corp)

• $Expand Energy(EXE.US) (Expand Energy)

• $Vulcan Materials(VMC.US) (Vulcan Materials)

Top 10 full exits (by prior $ size):

• $Cisco(CSCO.US) (Cisco)

• $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) (ASE Technology)

• $Coreweave(CRWV.US) (CoreWeave)

• $Primoris(PRIM.US) (Primoris Services)

• $Brookfield(BN.US) (Brookfield)

• $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) (Applied Optoelectronics)

• $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) (Palantir)

• $Nebius(NBIS.US) (Nebius Group)

• $Sun Life Financial(SLF.US) (Sun Life Financial)

• $Bristol Myers Squibb(BMY.US) (Bristol-Myers Squibb)

Summary: Bridgewater's book grew 8.8% to $24.38B this quarter, still anchored by index ETFs (SPY + IVV = 25.5% of the fund) with AI/semis (NVDA, AVGO, LRCX, AMD) making up the next tier. New money leaned into utilities and energy (ES, ED, NI, DUK, APA), while exits skewed tech/growth (CSCO, CRWV, PLTR, NBIS, BMY). With 214 adds and 210 exits out of roughly 1,000 total names, this is systematic macro rebalancing, not conviction stock-picking

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $2.6B, slightly ahead of estimates of $2.56B, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.5B versus $1.43B expected and adjusted EBITDA margin of 59%. Revenue backlog reached roughly $104B, up 46% YoY, while active power more than tripled YoY to 1.5GW and contracted power increased to 4.2GW. CoreWeave raised FY26 guidance to $12.4B–$13.2B in revenue and $960M–$1.15B in adjusted operating income, while lifting its active power target to more than 1.85GW. The company now expects year-end annualized run-rate revenue of $18.5B–$19.5B, managed inference ARR above $250M exiting 2026, and long-term active power of 8GW+ by 2030. Management said customer demand is accelerating as enterprise adoption broadens and its platform deepens.

2. Gemini has become $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Google’s fastest-growing product ever, crossing 1B monthly users and becoming the company’s 14th product to reach the billion-user milestone. The scale-up underscores how quickly Google is pushing Gemini across Search, Android, Workspace, and its broader AI ecosystem.

3. BofA downgraded AppLovin $AppLovin(APP.US) to Neutral with a $400 price target, saying risks to the company’s long-term 30% YoY revenue growth trajectory have increased. Analyst Omar Dessouky said post-Q2 growth appears to be driven more by engineer-directed improvements to Gaming models, while it is less clear whether the prior 3%–5% QoQ self-learning growth assumption still applies. BofA also noted that with AppLovin’s high relative market share, estimated at roughly 2x its next-largest competitor, long-term growth from self-learning alone may be harder to sustain than the market previously assumed.

4. President Trump is reportedly weighing a capital gains tax cut ahead of the midterms, including the idea of indexing capital gains to inflation before taxes are calculated. Under that approach, investors would only owe taxes on the inflation-adjusted “real” gain, not the full nominal gain. For example, if someone bought a business or stock position for $2M and sold it years later for $5M, the nominal gain would be $3M. But if cumulative inflation over that period was 25%, the inflation-adjusted cost basis would rise to $2.5M, leaving only $2.5M of taxable real gain instead of $3M. Trump has also floated capital gains exemptions for home sales worth $2M or less. There has not been a major U.S. capital gains tax cut since 2003.

5. Senator Bernie Sanders has reportedly called on major AI companies to pause development, sending letters to the CEOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta, according to NYT. The push adds to the growing political scrutiny around frontier AI development, safety, and whether the largest labs should slow deployment as model capabilities continue advancing.

6. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) is reportedly still planning a glass-centric iPhone redesign for the device’s 20th anniversary in 2027, contrary to a Jefferies report that said it had been canceled, according to Bloomberg. The new Pro models are expected to feature glass that curves into the sides, with a metal band running through the middle.

7. U.S. existing home sales fell 1.7% in July to a 4.06M annualized pace, slightly above estimates. Median existing home prices rose 2% YoY to $434,100, while inventory increased to 1.54M homes. The data points to a housing market that is still soft on transaction volume, but with prices remaining resilient as supply continues to build.

8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.2M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.4M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 861K contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 823K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 664K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 568K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 559K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 555K contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 546K contracts, and $Hertz Global(HTZ.US) with 518K contracts.

9. Supermicro $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) reported Q4’26 revenue of $11.1B, below estimates of $11.55B, but adjusted EPS came in at $1.70 versus $0.96 expected, up 315% YoY. Gross margin expanded to 17.5%, up 800 bps YoY, while net income reached $1.2B, adjusted EBITDA was $1.7B, and operating income came in at $1.5B. For Q1, Supermicro guided revenue to $14.5B–$15.5B, well above estimates of $11.68B, with adjusted EPS of $1.01–$1.10. For FY27, the company guided revenue to $65B–$72B, far ahead of the $52.5B estimate. Management said Supermicro generated more than $60B in new orders and entered fiscal 2027 with record backlog, while improving profitability through a richer enterprise customer mix and broader adoption of its optimized Data Center Building Block Solutions architecture.

10. Stifel reiterated its Buy rating on Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) and raised its price target to $132, saying the company delivered a “beat and raise” quarter with Q2 results ahead of expectations across revenue, margins, and EBITDA. Rocket Lab signed 26 new Electron/HASTE missions, expanded total launch backlog to more than 90 missions, and grew overall backlog to roughly $2.4B, with another $800M of bookings added after quarter-end. Stifel also highlighted accelerating Space Systems revenue as SDA programs ramp, multiple defense awards, and continued progress on Neutron, which remains on schedule for pad delivery in Q4’26. The firm said Rocket Lab’s Iridium acquisition, GHOST launch system, defense exposure, backlog visibility, and limited competition create a compelling long-term risk/reward despite near-term cash burn.

11. Schwab clients were net buyers of ETFs and equities in July by a 2:1 ratio. The top stocks bought were $SpaceX(SPCX.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Intel(INTC.US), $Oracle(ORCL.US), and $Tesla(TSLA.US), while the top stocks sold were $Apple(AAPL.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US), $Adobe(ADBE.US), $Paypal(PYPL.US), and $AMD(AMD.US). The data shows retail leaning back into high-beta AI, memory, and space-linked names while trimming exposure to some of the market’s more mature tech leaders.

12. The SEC is reportedly preparing to roll out two major crypto initiatives $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) $ETH as the Clarity Act stalls in Congress, according to Bloomberg. The agency will hold an open meeting Friday to create a tailored offering regime for certain crypto-related investment contracts. The SEC is also expected to unveil an “innovation exemption” for trading tokenized securities, potentially paving the way for 24/7 trading of stock tokens on blockchains. Details could be released as soon as Friday, though the proposal is still being finalized and could change.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

🏆 TOP 10 WEEKLY ANALYST RATINGS:

$TAM $Unity Software(U.US) $Trade Desk(TTD.US) $Serve Robotics(SERV.US) $Circle(CRCL.US) $Astera Labs(ALAB.US) $Redwire(RDW.US) $Humana(HUM.US) $CLEH $AppLovin(APP.US)